Red Sox Gambling There'll Be a Game Seven

Jon Lester is the best starting pitcher in the American League Championship Series. Jonathan Papelbon is the best closer. And the Red Sox are going to lose, anyway.

First off, Lester isn't pitching until Game three, a decision that gives the Red Sox's top three starters maximum rest, but raises the possibility that the Sox can lose in six games while pitching Lester only once.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett and Lester will start Games one, two, and three, then five, six, and seven, respectively, if necessary. The Sox's rationale is that if they lead three games to two, they will need to win only one game—Beckett's or Lester's. If they're down three to two, they will need to win both.

Fair enough, and Lester already has thrown 224 1/3 innings, including his two starts in the Division Series, an increase of more than 60 innings over last season. Here's the problem: The Red Sox could be down two games to none before he ever throws a pitch. The Sox were 1-8 at Tropicana Field this season, in part because their hitters do not see the ball well at the Rays' home park.

That's right, the Trop not only is an advantage to the Rays offensively, enabling them to use their speed on the artificial turf, but also provides an edge to their pitchers. The park is not well-lit and some visiting hitters find it difficult to get accustomed to the hitting background, one rival executive says.

The numbers bear out the perceived discrepancy: The Rays had a 3.30 ERA at home and a 4.34 ERA on the road in the regular season—the fifth-largest differential in the majors, according to STATS LLC. The Sox's batting average/on-base/slugging line at the Trop was .216/.303/.365, compared with .280/.358/.447 overall.

Pitching Beckett and Lester on normal rest in Games one and two might have been one way to negate the Rays' edge. Beckett, following a 12-day layoff due to an oblique strain, struggled in his Division Series start against the Angels, throwing 106 pitches in five innings. However, plate umpire Kerwin Danley had a small strike zone and Beckett's velocity was good. Don't be surprised if Beckett is closer to his old form in his next start.

Matsuzaka in Game one, though, could be a problem. In each of his two starts at the Trop this season, Matsuzaka lasted only five innings, albeit while posting a 1.80 ERA. The Rays, fourth in the AL in pitches per plate appearance, figure to chase him early again.

One other thing: Matsuzaka is susceptible to the Rays' running game, and so is Tim Wakefield in Game four. The Rays led the majors with 142 stolen bases in the regular season, then added seven more in their four-game triumph over the White Sox in the Division Series. Matsuzaka and Wakefield are easy to run on. Paul Byrd, the pitcher the Sox bypassed for Game four, is not.

OK, that's the pessimistic view of the Sox's chances. If Beckett is the Beckett of old, the Sox will do no worse than a split in Tampa, with Lester going in Game three. The feeling around baseball right now is that Lester is all but invincible. If the Sox win both his starts, all they must do is prevail in two of the five other games.

Alas, it will not be that easy. Mike Lowell's absence is a significant blow to the Sox's offense, David Ortiz hasn't been the same since his wrist injury, and J.D. Drew's back could flare up at any time. Jason Varitek, a switch-hitter, is batting .201 against right-handed pitching, and rookie Jed Lowrie hit .213 in September before reviving in the Division Series.

The Rays lack a Lester, but their rotation posted the second-best ERA in the AL during the regular season, behind only the Blue Jays. The Rays' bullpen, meanwhile, has emerged as a force, allowing one run in 11 2/3 innings in the Division Series. Incredibly, eight of the Rays' 10 victories over the Sox this season were by one or two runs.

Right-hander Grant Balfour isn't a closer, but he's throwing like Papelbon. Ortiz and Drew will see three different lefty relievers—J.P. Howell, Trever Miller, and David Price. While Price didn't pitch in the Division Series, his velocity and hard slider could make him a difficult matchup for Ortiz.

Papelbon is far superior to Rays closer Dan Wheeler, but the Sox's bridge to Papelbon is a concern. Manager Terry Francona obviously does not trust Manny Delcarmen; otherwise, he would not be using Justin Masterson, a rookie, so late in games. Masterson, mind you, is no slouch. But he showed signs of cracking in Game four of the Division Series.

The Rays are more athletic, and their offense is at full strength now that Carl Crawford is back from his finger injury. The Sox's vast edge in experience cannot be dismissed, but the Rays are a more complete team. By the end of this series, Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, and B.J. Upton could be major stars.

I can't believe I'm writing this, but everything adds up.

My pick: Rays in six.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

Read more of Ken's columns here.