Four Pivotal Games That Will Determine Programs' Directions This Season

The coming weekend of games may determine the direction of the season for the programs involved.

By Saturday night, press conferences will have been held with one head coach praising the efforts of his troops in a big win, while his counterpart will bemoan the "what ifs" and "what could have beens." Elation on one side, depression on the other—such is the ebb and flow of the annual fall ritual we call college football.

Four big games are poised on the horizon for this weekend. Three of these you will recognize as being games of great interest. The other is just as big, but for reasons that involve fan-based drama.

The marquee game of the weekend is Oklahoma and Texas in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. This is always a huge game where season records rarely have anything to do with the outcome.

Oklahoma and Texas have good defenses and good offenses as well. Both quarterbacks are among the nation's leaders in passing efficiency. OU comes into the game ranked No. 1, while Texas is No. 5.

This will be a classic matchup between two storied programs that will offer one or the other the chance to have a leg up in the Big 12 South Division race, which will most likely lead to the Big 12 Championship game and an opportunity to advance to a BCS bowl game.

The focal point of this game will be the quarterbacks for both teams. Bradford of OU and McCoy of Texas are the guys that make their respective offenses go, and the quality of their play on Saturday will determine how close this game really winds up being.

Bradford has a great arm and a bevy of quality running backs and speedy receivers to back him up. McCoy also has a great arm, but he is also the leading rusher for the Longhorns, who have yet to see a dominant running back emerge in their backfield. The horns have two dominant receivers in Shipley and Cosby.

If McCoy goes down in this game to injury, the Longhorns will find themselves grasping for answers. McCoy's backup, John Chiles, is a shifty runner but does not have the arm that McCoy possesses. This would leave Texas offensively one-dimensional and having to depend on a running game that, with the exception of McCoy, has been virtually nonexistent to this point of the season.

On the other hand, if it were Bradford that succumbed to an injury, his backup would be Joey Halzle, who has been unimpressive in relief efforts the last two years. If you doubt that, refer back to the Sooners' loss to Texas Tech last year. OU would, however, have a solid run game to rely on if the unthinkable happened with Bradford.

With defenses that rank No. 11 (Oklahoma) and No. 28 (Texas) in total defense, the advantage in that regard must go to OU. The weakness on defense for Texas has to be their secondary, which is ranked 96th in the country in pass defense. Having to face Bradford is bad news for Mack Brown's Longhorns. Oklahoma's secondary ranks 15th in pass defense and should be effective against McCoy.

My prediction: OU covers the -7. The only way Texas wins this game is if they put Bradford out of the game early.

The next big game this weekend is LSU at Florida. LSU is coming off an open date, which should benefit them not only in terms of being able to rest and recover from injuries, but also from the standpoint of preparation. LSU is unbeaten thus far with SEC wins over Auburn and Mississippi State.

Florida comes into the game still smarting from an unexpected loss to Ole Miss, but with SEC wins over Tennessee and Arkansas to their credit. Florida is in good shape physically for this game with the exception of Percy Harvin, who is listed as probable. Harvin sustained an ankle injury in last weekend's game at Arkansas.

If things go the way I expect them to, this won't be the last time that these two teams play each other. I fully expect to see them meet again in the SEC Championship in December.

Urban Meyer is his usual understated self as he quietly prepares his team for this game. Les Miles is projecting his usual "I'm a tough guy" demeanor headed into this contest and has been quoted as saying (paraphrasing), "There's a lot more focus in our house this week."

My prediction: Mr. Understated sends Mr. Tough Guy home with a loss. Florida covers the spread at home.

Another big game this weekend is Oklahoma State and Missouri. If only OSU's Mike Gundy was better known for having produced top 10 teams than for his "I'm 40, I'm a man" quote, I might be able to take this game more seriously.

Missouri, as we all know, is a very talented team that can score faster than you can ask where the restrooms are located. The same could perhaps be said for OSU, who has also acquitted itself well this season.

Missouri is ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and OSU is right behind them at No. 3. Missouri is 44th in scoring defense and Okie State is ranked 54th. The difference here comes in total defense where Oklahoma State is ranked 51st, while Mizzou comes in at No. 83.

This is another showcase game for quarterbacks, and OSU's main man is Zac Robinson. He is plenty good and is among the nation's leaders in passing efficiency, as is his counterpart at Missouri, Chase Daniel. Much of the outcome of this game will depend on their abilities to keep their teams moving.

However, if OSU's defense can step up to the plate and contain Missouri, this game could have a surprising outcome.

The thing that lingers in my mind is that Oklahoma State, over the past few years, has started out basically the same way. They come out of the chutes like a rocket, appearing to be a team that is on the verge of a breakout season. But the first time they meet a team of quality, they have a tendency to fold under pressure.

OSU is 15-34 in Big 12 road games and 3-9 under Mike Gundy. Missouri is 30-13 at home with Pinkel as their head coach. Missouri is favored by 14.

My prediction: If OSU is for real, Missouri may have a hard time covering the spread. I think the Cowboys may have to settle for a "moral victory" this weekend, because I believe that Pinkel and the Tigers will send OSU back to Stillwater with a loss.

Lastly, we have what I consider to be an important game for the remainder of the season for both teams involved, but for entirely different reasons. This may wind up being one of the most entertaining games of the weekend, though it seems to be flying under the national media radar.

Arkansas at Auburn: No, this may not have the SEC implications that the LSU-Florida game possesses, but don't kid yourself—this is a vital game for two teams that may be headed in different directions.

Arkansas, with head coach Bobby Petrino in his first season, is in the midst of a rather overwhelming rebuilding season. Though Arkansas has taken a drubbing three games in a row from the likes of ranked teams like Alabama (2), Texas (5) and Florida (11), it is obvious that they are a team on the rise—slowly, perhaps, but nonetheless getting better with each game.

With the exception of Texas, who played as perfect a game as any coach could hope for, the Razorbacks played the Crimson Tide and the Gators close for most of their games.

With learning new offensive and defensive schemes on both sides of the ball, the process of productive assimilation has been slow. Offensively, the greatest need that the Razorbacks exhibit is at quarterback.

If Arkansas had a quarterback that was experienced and seasoned in Petrino's "Power-Spread" offense, even with a lesser defense, it is likely that Arkansas could be at least 3-2 and perhaps 4-1 at this point as opposed to 2-3.

Arkansas has squandered many scoring opportunities in their last three games by simply not seeing receivers that were open downfield and by not closing the deal inside their opponent's 30-yard line.

The Razorbacks lack quality depth and experience and are playing a lot of freshmen on both sides of the ball. At times, their defense has performed like a seasoned unit, but it seems incapable of playing an entire game that way at this point.

If Arkansas can find a way to put a game plan together that they can execute for all four quarters of a game, this is a team that can be surprisingly effective this season. Despite the national dogpiling of Petrino, considering his circumstances, he and his staff have done an exceptional job so far of bringing this team into a different and better era of Arkansas football.

On the other side of the ball in this game is Auburn. To say that there seems to be confusion, disorganization, and perhaps even internal turmoil might be an understatement when discussing this team.

Tuberville's Tigers have always been a competitive team, but for the last few years their team strength has been found in their defense. It isn't any different this year as the defense has performed even better this year than last.

The biggest point of contention among Auburn boosters has probably been the offense. Tuberville fired his offensive coordinator last year and brought in Tony Franklin, a "spread offense" guru from Troy, before last year's bowl game against Clemson.

Auburn won that game, but this year the offense has been less than impressive, finding itself near or at the bottom of nearly every SEC statistical category. Further inspection reveals that there was no significant change in offensive stats from last year to this year.

It is certain that the Auburn faithful are putting major pressure on Tuberville. They are voicing their displeasure with the fact that Auburn's offense doesn't seem strong enough to penetrate wet industrial grade toilet paper.

The result of this was the firing of Tony Franklin as the offensive coordinator at Auburn yesterday. Tuberville was quoted as saying that he and Franklin had a good relationship and that he (Tuberville) still had faith in the "spread" as an offense, but that they just needed to make a change.

Pardon me? I was under the impression that Franklin was considered to be an expert in the spread offense. Tuberville still has faith in the spread but fires the only guy on staff who knows anything about it? Curious goings-on at Auburn.

In this game, I expect that Tuberville and staff will scramble around trying to reorganize the offense, pulling out old playbooks from last year and trying to get the "old-new" offense put back in before the game this weekend.

I wouldn't expect to see a great deal of Chris Todd at quarterback this weekend, but rather a healthy dose of Kodi Burns in an offensive attack that puts great emphasis on the running game, with an occasional pass for good measure.

Auburn is favored in this game by 18 points. I find that almost unfathomable. Auburn does have an excellent defense, but so did Alabama and Florida. Arkansas had chances to keep both of those games close and perhaps even win.

It wasn't the Tide or the Gators that kept Arkansas from scoring—it was Arkansas that defeated itself by blowing numerous opportunities to score.

My prediction: Auburn will probably win this game, but make no mistake, Arkansas is capable. If Auburn doesn't generate a more significant offense with Tuberville calling the plays, and if Arkansas can keep from shooting themselves in the foot early in the game, this could be one of the most entertaining and competitive games of the weekend.

I think Auburn wins this game, but I doubt they will cover the spread.

In any case, this will be a weekend filled with great and exciting games. Get together with friends, get the grill out, ice down the beer, set up a couple of televisions so you don't miss a game, and enjoy. This weekend is what college football is all about.