OK, This Time I'm Picking the Dodgers ... I Think

Before the Division Series, I wrote that if I had any guts, I'd pick the Dodgers to beat the Cubs

Now what do I say? Fool me once, shame on the Cubs, fool me twice, shame on me?

Yes, but with a copout — er, caveat.

Dodgers vs. Phillies is going to be extremely competitive (duh, Ken). Either team could win (so, Ken, who are you picking for president, Obama and McCain?).

OK, I'll say it — I like the Dodgers.

Barely.

The argument for the Phillies is so compelling, it's easy for me to list five reasons why they could win:

The Dodgers' right-handed rotation. Two of the Phillies' top three sluggers — Chase Utley and Ryan Howard — are left-handed. The Dodgers will start righties in six of a potential seven games, and their left-handed option for Game 4, Clayton Kershaw, is 20 years old.

The Dodgers' top two relievers, Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton, also are righties, but they could carry three left-handed relievers — Kershaw, Joe Beimel and Hong-Chi Kuo.

"With the team we're playing," general manager Ned Colletti says, "three might not be enough."

Cole Hamels. The Dodgers hit lefties better than righties, but Hamels' low 90s fastball and vicious changeup should give him an edge against the Dodgers' young hitters.

First baseman James Loney, a left-handed hitter, actually might sit in favor of Nomar Garciaparra in Game 1; Loney could start against the other Phillies' lefty, Jamie Moyer, who is much less overpowering than Hamels.

Citizens Bandbox Park. The Phillies earned home-field advantage by winning 92 games to the Dodgers' 84. For Utley, Howard, Pat Burrell and Co., an extra game in one of the game's most hitter-friendly environments should only help.

The Dodgers' offensive statistics home and away are nearly the same. The Phillies are better offensively at home than they are on the road.

The Dodgers' layoff. OK, it's only four days, but that's enough to give Phillies hope. The Dodgers were hot against the Cubs, and they've won 22 of 30 overall, including their Division Series sweep.

Of course, the Phillies will be off for only one fewer day than the Dodgers, and they've won 16 of 20 overall. Still, the Dodgers played better in the first round than the Phillies.

In theory, they've got more to lose.

Brad Lidge. In case you haven't noticed, Lidge has converted all 43 of his save opportunities this season, including two in the Division Series.

He may face Manny Ramirez in this series, but definitely not Albert Pujols.

OK, that's my case for the Phillies. Now here's my case for the Dodgers.

Derek Lowe. More experienced than Hamels and at the moment, even hotter. The Dodgers could pitch him three times in this series if they bring him back for Game 4 on three days rest. Lowe, because of an extra off-day after Game 4, then would be available for Game 7 on normal rest.

A potential free agent, Lowe has put together a salary drive nearly as impressive as Manny's, much to the delight of Scott Boras, who represents both. In his last 10 starts, including his outing in the NLDS, Lowe has posted a 0.99 ERA.

As a sinker-baller, Lowe also is unfazed by Citizens Bank Park, where he's 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in three career starts.

Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda. They, too, keep the ball down — Lowe ranked second in the NL in groundball ratio, Kuroda ninth, Billingsley 11th.

Billingsley, the Game 2 starter, can struggle against lefties, but he's 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA in two career starts at CBP.

Kuroda, the Game 3 starter, has posted a 2.34 ERA in 12 starts since Aug. 1, including the postseason, and thrives at Dodger Stadium.

The Phillies' inconsistent offense. For all the talk about the Phillies' power, the team scored nearly 100 fewer runs in the regular season than it did a year ago.

Utley was 2-for-15 in the NLDS, Burrell 0-for-8 until the final game, Howard 2-for-11, albeit with five walks.

Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth are strong offensive players, but as one scout puts it, "They need at least one of their big three to get hot."

Rafael Furcal. An absolute difference-maker in the leadoff spot, and the Phillies didn't see him in any of the eight games they played against the Dodgers in the regular season.

Furcal, another potential free agent (but not one of Boras'), recovered from his lower-back injury just in time. He went 4-for-12 with three walks against the Cubs, using a push bunt to drive in a run in Game 2.

Manny. For some inexplicable reason, he's only 9-for-47 lifetime at Citizens Bank with three homers.

Don't expect that to last, even though Phillies manager Charlie Manuel possesses special insight into Ramirez from their days together in the Indians' organization.

If Manuel is smart, his special insight will translate into four fingers extended as often as possible.

Ramirez went 5-for-10 with two homers and four walks in the Division Series, and the Cubs considered it a triumph.

Why? Because both his homers were solo shots.

Hey, I love the Phillies, and part of me wants to see Charlie Manuel beat Joe Torre, just so all of Manuel's detractors in Philadelphia finally will shut up.

But Manny, combined with the Dodgers' pitching and their emerging young hitters, will be too much.

My pick: Dodgers in 7.

This article originally published on FOXSports.com.

Read more of Ken's columns here.