College Football Rankings 2011: Can Boise State Make Another BCS Run?
Last season, Boise State came within one loss (by three, on the road, in overtime) of having a shot at a BCS bowl bid. Are they ready to get over that last hurdle in 2011?
Herein, the pros and cons of the Broncos’ case, and an answer as to whether they’ll be BCS-bound or headed back to the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl next season.
Pro: Kellen Moore
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Any discussion of Boise State’s BCS hopes has to start with their sensational senior QB. Moore enters his fourth season as the Broncos’ starter, and his experience and consistency are the heart and soul of this program.
Moore may not have the build or rifle arm of an NFL star, but he knows every nuance of Boise State’s offense, and his accuracy is exceptional. With Moore running the show, Boise State could have a lot less talent than it actually does and still be in the BCS conversation.
Con: Skill-Position Losses
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While Kellen Moore returns at QB, the Broncos did suffer some significant graduation losses at the other skill positions. Multi-threat halfback Jeremy Avery is gone, as are the top two WRs in Austin Pettis (pictured) and Titus Young.
The biggest effect of these departures will likely be on Boise State’s quick-strike capability. All three players were home run threats who helped stretch the field for Kellen Moore.
The Broncos have a history of replacing seniors without a major rebuilding period, but they’re likely to miss the explosiveness of that trio, especially early in the season.
Pro: Boise State Can Handle the Mountain West
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For some programs, a move up in conference strength would mean a season or two of adjustment to the new level of competition. Boise State, though, shouldn’t need to worry about their transition to the Mountain West.
Their 26-3 dismantling of Utah (which was 7-1 in MWC play last season) gives every reason to believe that they’ll have little more trouble beating up on Wyoming and New Mexico than they did with WAC also-rans like San Jose State or Idaho. The Broncos are not going to be afraid of anybody on their 2011 schedule, regardless of conference.
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Con: Still No Margin for Error
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As it was last season, so it will always be for a team outside the six BCS conferences: one and done. A single loss, in conference or out of it, and the Broncos will have scuttled their chances at a BCS bid in 2011.
With TCU having to visit Boise next season, Boise State is likely to be favored in every game next season, but they’re not all going to be 49-0 laughers. One bad break in a close game (like K Kyle Brotzman’s off night against Nevada last year) and the dream will be over.
Pro: Head-to-Head Matchup with TCU
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Precisely because they’re not in a power conference, Boise State invariably needs some help, in the form of losses by other BCS contenders, if they want to reach the big stage. In recent years, one major contender has been fellow outsider TCU, but this year, the Broncos can take care of that problem themselves.
With their move to the MWC, Boise State gets TCU in conference play (until the Horned Frogs make their own move to the Big East after the season). Even better, the game will be played on the blue turf in Boise.
Having the chance to knock off one of their biggest competitors for themselves, without having to hold their breath and hope someone does it for them, will remove a significant distraction from Boise State’s season.
Con: Non-Conference Schedule Looks Soft
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Last year, Boise State opened with a bang by throttling ACC power Virginia Tech on national TV. The win gave them instant momentum, and helped them in the polls and computer rankings once the Hokies started winning games in ACC play.
This year, the Broncos have a similar plan, but the season-opening foe is Georgia. The Bulldogs, coming off a weak 6-7 season, aren’t going to provide the same kinds of headlines that Tyrod Taylor et al. did last year.
More importantly, Georgia plays in the stacked SEC. Even if they’re dramatically improved over last season, they could still finish the regular season 7-5 or 6-6 just because they play so many elite teams.
Without a prime non-conference win to boost their computer numbers—and their best opponent might be high-scoring but unheralded Tulsa—the Broncos will have a tougher time muscling into the BCS discussion.
Pro: SEC May Be Too Good for Its Own Good
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Boise State’s competition for a BCS berth comes not from the top teams (who will presumably get automatic bids by winning their conferences), but from the major conference runners-up.
With the SEC having so much talent this season, they would seem likely to be one of the conferences to earn an at-large BCS bid. However, the SEC may actually be too strong to get an at large.
Especially if one team (say, Alabama) runs the table in the conference, everybody else could be left with two or more losses, leaving the door open for a team like Boise State.
With Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas and South Carolina all plausible preseason Top 25 teams, it’s going to take a very strong SEC runner-up to have the kind of one-loss season that will put them definitively ahead of a potential unbeaten Boise State squad.
Con: Pac-10 Is Heavy Favorite for One at-Large Slot
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The other side of the at-large coin is that the Pac-10 seems to be in a great position to secure one of the precious bids next year.
Despite the wealth of talent at USC and Arizona State, there’s still what looks like an awfully big gap between those teams and the conference’s defending BCS schools in Oregon and Stanford.
The winner of the Ducks-Cardinal showdown on November 12 has a great shot at an unbeaten season and a place in the national championship game. The loser, though, could very easily come out 11-1 and make one less BCS berth available to a team like Boise State.
Pro: The Broncos' Defense Is Loaded
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Kellen Moore and the offense may get most of the press, but the Boise State defense has played outstanding football over the last several seasons. They’re well equipped to provide more of the same this year.
The Broncos return seven starters, including six seniors and four all-WAC performers, on the defensive side of the ball.
Even with star DE Ryan Winterswyk gone, the line could boast four seniors (assuming Tyrone Crawford or Jarrell Root takes over for Winterswyk) and two all-conference performers in DE Shea McClellin and DT Billy Winn.
Mountain West teams expecting to challenge the Broncos in a shootout are in for a serious disappointment.
The Verdict: BCS Busters
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Nobody said it was going to be easy for the Broncos, but they have too much experience and talent to count them out this year. Barring another major upset, Boise State will get its shot at one of the big boys in this year’s BCS bowls.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
