Come To Think of It...MLB NLCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Phillies

National League Championship Series Preview

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

(All games televised on FOX)

Game 1:             10/09 LAD @ PHI
Game 2:             10/10 LAD @ PHI
Game 3:             10/12 PHI @ LAD
Game 4:             10/13 PHI @ LAD
Game 5 (if nec.): 10/15 PHI @ LAD
Game 6 (if nec.): 10/17 LAD @ PHI
Game 7 (if nec.): 10/18 LAD @ PHI

Game Analysis

Welcome to the NLCS preview. I am your host, Bob Warja. Let's see what prizes await  our contestants, Jay. Well, Bob, the winner of this series takes home a shiny trophy that crowns them as the champions of the National League for 2008.

And that's not all!

The winners get to advance to the next round of our game, to play the winner of the ALCS in the World Series!

Well, there's certainly a lot at stake here then. The Phillies have home-field advantage by virtue of having had a better record during the regular season, while the American League will have home-field advantage in the WS by virtue of a win in an exhibition game.

As silly as that seems, either of the A.L. teams (Rays or Red Sox) would have had the advantage by virtue of their regular season records anyway, so nothing lost there.

So, without further ado, let's meet our contestants.

L.A. Dodgers

The Dodgers arrived here by virtue of a three-game sweep of the Chicago Cubs, a team that had won 97 games during the regular season and was heavily favored. But what the pundits didn't take into account is the fact that the Dodgers were ranked No. 1 in team ERA during the season.

And offensively, they were much improved after the acquisitions of Casey Blake and especially Manny Ramirez. Manny also is credited with loosening up what had been a somewhat dysfunctional clubhouse.

At the helm is the one and only Joe Torre who, when he is not drinking wheat grass and writing screen plays, manages the Dodgers team with a firm, but compassionate and guiding hand. He is certainly no stranger to the playoffs, having guided the Yankees to four World Series winners.

Torre has done a great job of convincing veterans Nomar Garciaparra, Jeff Kent, and Juan Pierre not to publicly complain about handing over their starting spots to younger players. And he always has them around to impart wisdom, just like having Greg Maddux on the roster is like having a second pitching coach.

And the Dodgers, despite a regular-season record of 84-78, won 22 of their last 30 games during the season. Counting the playoffs, make that 25-of-33.

In three games against the Cubs, Manny went 5-for-10, with two HR and three RBI. The Dodgers also saw the return of shortstop Rafael Furcal who, prior to his injury, had a line of .357/.439/.573.

The Dodgers' pitchers were very tough in the Cubs series, holding the N.L.'s top scoring team to six runs, three of them in 19 innings off the starting triumvirate of Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda. And the Phillies will face Derek Lowe in game one.

The Phillies

The Phillies also entered the playoffs with momentum of their own. The Phillies' 6-2 dismissal of Milwaukee in Sunday's Game Four of their Division Series gave them 16 wins in their past 20 games. The finally assumed first place for good in the N.L. East on Sept. 19.

The Phillies look to present the Dodgers with a much tougher offense than the Cubs did. With powerful hitting Ryan Howard (48 homers), Chase Utley (33 homers), and Pat Burrell (33 homers), the Phils are loaded for bear. They also boast a leadoff hitter that is the heart and soul of the team in Jimmy Rollins.

Phillies pitching, including Game One starter Cole Hamels, has been tough. They allowed only five earned runs against the Brewers, an ERA of 1.80. Philadelphia hurlers have also held Manny in check. 

Including a couple of interleague run-ins while he was still with the Red Sox, Ramirez is batting .212 (7-for-33) against the Phillies and is 3-for-22, without an RBI, in six games in Citizens Bank Park.

But don't look at the teams' recent regular-season history for any separation. They split eight games, each sweeping a four-game home series.

One of Philly's outfielders may have some extra motivation. Jayson Werth was released by the Dodgers after the 2006 season, concerned about his injured wrist. After hitting 24 homers this season, Werth claims there are no hard feelings.

On the other side of the coin, Shane Victorino will be facing the team that drafted him.

Still, look for each team to try to find anything that will give them an edge in what appears to be a very close matchup; one that should go the full route.

Key Matchups

The bullpens of each team presents an interesting scenario. While the Phillies have Brad Lidge, who was perfect in save chances during the regular season (ironically, his only blown save came in the All-Star game, giving home field to the A.L. in the WS this year), the Dodgers aren't sure who will close for them. Manager Joe Torre said he will choose  between Jonathan Broxton or Takashi Saito based on game matchups.

The way Broxton overpowered the Cubs with 99 MPH fastballs and a wicked slider, expect Torre to call on him to finish the games.

One of the keys to the series is the pitching of likely Game Two starter Brett Myers. Will we see the second-half Myers, who was 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA, or the pitcher that was so bad during the first half that he was sent to the minors?

Another interesting matchup will be the Phillies' low-ball hitters vs. the Dodgers' low-ball pitchers. Both Lowe and Game Two starter Chad Billingsley may be forced to get the ball up, resulting in more power production from the Phils.

There is also the matter of Phillies starter Jamie Moyer, who likely will pitch Games Three and Seven of the series (if it goes that far). The Dodgers will need to be patient with Moyer, and the younger hitters, such as Ethier, Kemp, Loney, and Martin may struggle with their patience against the ancient left-hander.

Offensively, an interesting matchup will be between the team's two best sluggers. Just as the Phils need to be careful pitching to Manny, the Dodgers likewise must be concerned with Ryan Howard. The left-handed slugger was a terror in September, hitting .352 with 11 homers and 32 RBI, and the Brewers pitched to him carefully, walking him five times in four games.

In the end, I predict that the more experienced Joe Torre, Manny Ramirez, and Derek Lowe, and slightly superior starting pitching, will make the difference in what should be a full seven-game series.

Prediction: Dodgers in seven.