Toronto Blue Jays: 6 Keys for Jays to Compete in the Tough AL East
Any longtime Blue Jays fan understands that the world isn’t necessarily a fair place.
Year in and year out, while teams like the Twins and Rangers are allowed to squeak into the playoffs on the backs of the middling competition the Central and West tries to throw at them, Jays fans are constantly forced to watch their beloved blue birds struggle mightily during 36 contests against (arguably) the top two powerhouses in baseball.
Experts agree that in most divisions the Jays would vie for a division title, but in the inglorious East, it’s as if they’re constantly walking uphill, with a gusting wind continually blowing against them.
The 2011 Blue Jays may be no different. Once again they are a talented bunch. Once again they boast a healthy mix of hopeful youth and wily veterans. Once again they look poised to challenge for long-ball dominance...and once again they must share the title for “toughest schedule” with the newly resurgent Baltimore Orioles.
Shouldn’t there be a trophy just for enduring the toughest schedule every year? Or at least a banner to hang in front of the hotel windows at Rogers Centre so we don’t have to see what’s going on inside?
Do the Jays have a chance in 2011? No question many experts have already counted them out, but count me in as one who remains ardently optimistic. Will it be easy? Certainly not. Is it likely? I hesitantly admit that it’s probably not. But is it possible? Of course it’s possible: The stars have been aligning for centuries in all fashion of magical configurations, and every year baseball finds a seemingly sterile pumpkin that suddenly transforms into Cinderella herself.
On the following pages I share with you the specific astronomical configurations that I believe will need to align themselves for the Jays to come through in 2011. Why don’t you step into my observatory and have your own gander through the telescope as well?
Star Alignment No. 1: The Red Sox Must Start 2-9
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Okay, I kid. Sort of.
The truth of the matter is that the first star that must align for the Jays is that at least one of the Yankees or Red Sox must falter, because if they both finish ahead of the Jays, the Jays will lose out on both the division title and the wild card in one fell swoop.
So it's hard not to let out a little fist pump every time the sports ticker shows the vaunted Red Sox dropping game after game...after game...after game...after—well, you get the picture.
Will the losing continue for the Sox? Unlikely—it seems almost inevitable that the Big Red Machine will eventually get all of its gears churning in synchronicity. Then again, who would have predicted a 2-9 start?
Star Alignment No. 2: Manny Ramirez Must Be Caught with the Goods
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I kid again. Sort of.
As we all know, the East is no longer just a two- or three-team race. Rather, pretty much everyone except the Baltimore Orioles has become a legitimate threat in recent years, and the Rays are no exception. With a young pitching staff that rivals any other in baseball and increasingly talented offensive muscle, the Rays are trying to repeat as playoff contenders in 2011.
And so, for the Jays to make it through the playoffs' pearly gates, they're also going to have to find a way past the pesky Rays.
As luck would have it, the Rays, like the Red Sox, appear hell-bent on digging themselves into a hole that they may not be able to dig themselves out of. Especially with good old Manny deciding to hang it up (in lieu of continuing to shoot it up), it looks like this may be one star configuration that could, indeed, align itself in the Jays' favor.
Star Alignment No. 3: The Youngsters on the Mound Must Show That They're Ready
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For nearly a decade, the Jays relied on Roy Halladay to serve at the helm of an otherwise shaky starting rotation.
Now, two years after his departure, and the departure of Shaun Marcum as well, the Jays rotation has become one of the youngest, and least experienced, in all of baseball. In fact, with an average age of 24.8, the 2011 Jays rotation is the third-youngest in the history of the franchise.
But that doesn't mean they're not a talented bunch. Despite being only 26, Ricky Romero looks ready to take the reins as a No. 1 starter in the league. Brandon Morrow showed flashes of brilliance last year and a consistent and noticeable improvement in the second half of the season that suggests he too may be ready to come into his own.
Brett Cecil shows an uncanny ability to will people to sleep before his curveball crosses the plate. Kyle Drabek is one of the most highly touted prospects in baseball. And Jesse Litsch is...well, Jesse Litsch.
We all know that the 2011 Jays are going to score some runs. The bigger question is whether this very young rotation is going to be able to hold up throughout a very long and grueling season. They've got the talent; time will tell whether that can make up for their lack of experience.
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Star Alignment No. 4: Bautista Must Show That He's Not Vernon Wells
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Jose Bautista hit the major-league scene in 2010 like a bat out of hell. To say that he put up career numbers would be an understatement of grand proportions.
Thirty-four more runs than his previous career high. Sixty-one more RBI than he'd ever before been able to obtain. And 350 percent more home runs than at any other time in his seven-year career. That's right—350 percent.
Is he for real? A flash in the pan? After striking a brand-spanking-new $65 million contract, the Jays will have to hope that he can duplicate the almost ungodly numbers that he was able to put up in 2010. Because we just got rid of Vernon Wells and his ungodly contract; the last thing we need is another $65 million weighing us down for the next five years.
Bautista is unlikely to duplicate last season, but if he can put up decent numbers—35 HRs, 100 RBI, with a .280 BA and 100 BBs to boot—then the Jays will have gotten a good payout on their investment. Will it be enough to put the Jays into the playoffs? Time will tell...
Star Alignment No. 5: Hill, Lind Will Have to Have Bounce-Back Years
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Two of the biggest disappointments for the Jays in 2010 were Aaron Hill and Adam Lind. Coming off huge 2009 campaigns, neither man was able to come close to the lofty expectations that he had set in the minds of fans.
Lind showed flashes of his previous self and finished with "acceptable" offensive numbers; Hill seemed uncomfortable at the plate all season long and hardly managed to get his season batting average up over .200.
For the Jays to have a chance in 2011, Hill and Lind are going to have to have bounce-back years. I'm looking for .260-.290 BAs, 25 home runs and 80 RBI as a minimum for both men. Anything less would have to be considered a disappointment and would probably spell trouble for the Jays, who will have a hard time protecting Bautista in the batting order if neither Hill nor Lind can step up to the plate (no pun intended).
Star Alignment No. 6: The Relief Corps Is Going to Have to Keep It Together
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On Apr. 11th, three—count them: three!—men were walked home in an absolutely pitiful eighth inning that saw the Jays take a 7-0 lead into the bottom of the seventh against the lowly Mariners...and lose.
Sadly, few were surprised.
Which is to say that if there's any obvious weakness on the 2011 Jays, it's the bullpen. With the loss of Scott Downs, the Jays are going to have to rely on a bevy of moderately talented statesmen to try to get the job done in the game's late innings.
If the game against the Mariners is any indication, this may be the hardest star to align in space. Because no matter how well the starters perform, and no matter how many home runs Bautista or Hill or Lind manages to pound, if the bullpen is going to be unable to hold seven-run leads, the Jays' 2011 season is unlikely to be a success.
Can It Happen?
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The truth of the matter is that with the Red Sox and the Rays stumbling and bumbling out of the gate, it's beginning to look as though the AL wild card may actually be up for grabs.
For the Jays to be the ones to grab it, they're going to have to get a bit of luck, a lot of starting pitching, a repeat performance from Bautista, bounce-back years from Hill and Lind and a successful patchwork job from the relief corps that exceeds all current expectations.
And probably a few hundred other things—feel free to post your notions regarding what the Jays need in the comments section. Who knows—maybe as armchair quarterbacks we can lead them to the promised land!
I, for one, wish them luck—and will have fun watching regardless.
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