2011 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Round 1 Is Sure To Be a Snoozer

Despite the fact that at this point we are yet to find out the exact seeding of the Western Conference playoffs revving up this weekend it probably will not end up impacting the overall landscape of the second round. The top four seeds are without a doubt better than the bottom four, especially after a few late-season injuries to the lower half.

*At time of publishing Dallas and LA were still undecided for the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds but I used the most likely scenario for predictions. 

San Antonio vs. New Orleans or Memphis 

 San Antonio is cemented as the No. 1 seed and will face off against either New Orleans or Memphis. While they gave the Spurs fits in a blowout on Jan. 22 in their last matchup the Hornets team visiting San Antonio this weekend would not bare much resemblance to the one that dismantled Los Spurs that evening. Heading into that matchup both teams were on a winning streak with New Orleans' streak at eight. Currently New Orleans is stumbling in with two bad losses to Memphis and Utah with one game remaining at Dallas that is highly unlikely to buck that trend.

David West is out and he was uncharacteristically efficient in the Jan. 22 win. Also in that game New Orleans was 12-of-15 from three-point range with eight of those shots being made by Marcus Thornton and Trevor Ariza. Thornton is no longer a Hornet and Ariza's performance that day would be his season high in three-point makes.

Memphis hasn't been the same without Rudy Gay and you really can't blame the Grizzlies. He is a dynamic offensive threat and very solid defensively. They have been without Gay for their last two clashes with the Spurs and actually fared well winning one of two including a blowout 109-93 victory in Memphis. Part of that was due to the fact that Mike Conley has progressed well this season by most standards, which is a very good thing for a team sorely lacking talent at the point guard position. Chock full of SG/SF/PF hybrids who are all solid role players and tough defenders, Memphis bares a bit of resemblance to San Antonio with the major exception of a Hall of Fame coach. 

Of course the Spurs have their own worries. Fate isn't exactly on their side as only twice in the last 10 years has the NBA's best record won the NBA Finals. One of those two winners was San Antonio, however. They haven't sealed the best record yet but they are one game ahead of the Bulls at this point. The Tim Duncan-led Spurs have only lost twice ever in the first round of the playoffs. Once was last year to the Mavericks. The Hornets are not last year's Mavericks.

Prediction: Spurs win 4-0, to finish New Orleans off quickly and get rested for the tough road ahead. Spurs win 4-2 against the pesky Grizzlies as pure athleticism and will gets the Memphis boys a couple of wins. 

Dallas vs. Portland

Dallas is a team that never really seems like a legitimate championship threat while simultaneously maintaining the inability to "sneak" up on its playoff foes. Caron Butler went down but Shawn Marion looks rejuvenated. Dirk has been Dirk, Jet has been Jet, Kidd has been Kidd and Rodrigue Beaubois and J.J. Barea are coming along nicely. Brendan Haywood has been a little bit of a disappointment while Tyson Chandler has impressed at times. So essentially not much has changed in Dallas over the last few years. Don't expect their playoff run to be much different either.

Rick Carlisle has 7-9 playoff record with Dallas and a 37-41 overall playoff record with no Finals appearances. One could argue that Carlisle is the perfect match with his team: stellar in the regular season and underachieving in the postseason.

With all that being said Dallas will not fall to any of its possible first-round opponents, but could possibly make things very interesting with Portland as all four of their matchups this season have been good ones with two wins going to each team. 

Prediction: Dallas wins 4-1 over Portland with a few barnburners if Portland decides to play with intensity and stop feeling sorry for itself. Portland actually matches up very well with Dallas with the glaring exceptions of the center position and overall scoring ability.

LA Lakers vs. Memphis or New Orleans

As stated earlier, New Orleans is stumbling into the postseason and will sorely miss David West, as the Hornets have since he went down. New Orleans went winless against LA this season in four tries, losing two of them by 16 or more. New Orleans could have stolen one from LA in this series if West was around but the Hornets' chances of even getting one victory in their current state is unlikely.

Memphis is an intriguing matchup for just about anyone because of its athleticism and defensive ability. Tony Allen would love to guard Kobe Bryant for as many games as possible and would probably do a stellar job on him. Marc Gasol vs. Pau Gasol sounds like fun but Pau has dominated Marc in past matchups even though they rarely have gotten to guard each other one-on-one.

Much like New Orleans, Memphis will try to tackle its first round without one of its most important players in Rudy Gay. Memphis has approached its season without Gay with an underdog mentality, which is exactly what the Grizzlies need to scratch out a couple wins against LA.

LA has potentially lost Andrew Bynum for a period of time. That probably will not hurt the Lakers against a New Orleans team weak in the post, but definitely puts pressure on Lamar Odom to perform defensively, as he will be guarding Zach Randolph for the bulk of the series should Memphis be their opponent and Bynum has to sit.

Prediction: LA over New Orleans easily 4-0. LA over Memphis 4-1 in a series similar to the Lakers scare against the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder last season...but with less scare.

Oklahoma City vs. Denver

There has been no shortage of talk about the "new" Denver Nuggets since the Carmelo Anthony trade and their innate ability to find wins when you least expect it. Their problem however was getting wins when they truly needed them against OKC down the stretch. The Thunder handled them easily twice in the last two weeks of the season when the two teams were only separated by three games for the Northwest Division crown. One should never doubt George Karl but his current team does not seem to have what it takes to match up against the Thunder. 

Pending a game this evening against the Bucks, the young guns from OKC will roll into the postseason on a six-game win streak that included both of those victories over the Nuggets with one coming at each team's home arena. Both games were the standard for the Thunder, as they showcased some toughness, streaky three-point shooting, lackluster defense at times and downright awful shot selection for the cherry on top. Nonetheless, OKC is still very talented and has learned how to win consistently. The Thunder may not make the run deep into the playoffs their fans were hoping for after the excitement of last season, but they will surely dismiss Denver quickly.

A side note about Denver's Al Harrington: Harrington has made the playoffs four different times and only once has he made it out of the first round which, was the shocking Golden State upset of Dallas in 2007. Expect another first-round elimination for Al this year.

Prediction: OKC over Denver 4-1, as Denver wins Game 3 at the Pepsi Center when the young guns come out flat after a 2-0 start. Don't expect more than that to wake up the Thunder, as they will take care of business quickly.