College Football 2011: A Speculator's Guide to Alabama's Spring Scrimmage

Asian tea leaf readers and farm country water dowsers have nothing on Alabama fans attempting to pull nuggets of information from spring scrimmage stats.

One drawback to being an Alabama fan under the leadership of Nick Saban is the tight restriction of information.  

I'll go on record as saying I totally agree with this policy.  Nick's primary concern is protecting young players from unfair judgement, to prevent runaway expectations and to stop any such information from assisting others in scouting Alabama's strengths and weaknesses.

There are several reasons spring scrimmage stats are hard to read.

For one, the number of plays.  With the home team playing both sides, you are going to get roughly double the number of snaps.  So the offensive and defensive statistics are often much higher than you would see in a game.

Spring scrimmages are normally not run like a game.  The offense might run 20 red zone plays in a row, resulting in a number of touchdowns.

Offensively, they tend to throw more because the running game requires less timing work to be effective.  If either AJ McCarron or Phillip Sims gets 40 attempts in any games this fall, I'd say Alabama would likely be losing the game. 

Not all statistics are released.  The staff releases only what they want to, and young players' statistics are often omitted.  Alabama virtually never releases statistics on freshman quarterbacks like Phillip Sims.

All such statistics can be skewed by whom is going against whom.  A seasoned college veteran is often going to school a young player with no experience.  

Then there is the unpredictable factor of the spotlight.  Playing in a quiet stadium in front of coaches is one thing,  but some players have an innate ability to take it to a different level when tens of thousands of fans are watching and cheering.  

Alabama fans do a better job than any other school in creating a game atmosphere simulation to jack up such players for the spring scrimmage.

Even with these limitations, I find myself compelled to speculate with the given information, so here it goes.

Clearly both of Alabama's quarterbacks, AJ McCarron and Phillip Sims, can throw.  If that were not the case they would not be splitting reps so evenly.  

Though most believe McCarron is the man to beat for the job with both players getting nearly equal reps, it appears at this juncture to be a very different situation than has existed since Nick Saban arrived at Alabama.  At this point it's a safe bet to say that the job will remain open for competition into the fall.

There have been a number of long pass plays,  but that is usually the case in the spring.  It's impossible to get a beat on how they are doing until they are seen in person or on film.   

True freshman Demetrius Hart appears to have some ability.   If you saw his performance in the US Army All-American game this past year, this will not come as a shock.  Though his statistics aren't eye popping, the fact that he is getting significant reps indicates the staff believes he has a chance to contribute this fall.

The numbers suggest Alabama has a number of wide receivers who can play.  I suspect Alabama will still lean heavily on its senior receivers this season, but don't be surprised to see some younger players work their way onto the field as the season goes on.

Nick Saban and staff have put an emphasis on recruiting speed at the wide receiver position.  To date most of that talent has remained under development.  I suspect we will see some of that talent out of the garage this season.

The relatively small yardage relative to touchdowns scored by running back Jalston Fowler would suggest goal line work.  I suspect with Mark Ingram gone, Fowler is going to get a strong look as a goal-line battering ram.  

Fowler is listed at 245 pounds currently, Running him behind massive right tackle DJ Fluker and veteran guard Barret Jones sounds like a winning play to me.   That is a lot of beef to hold across the line.

Speaking of the offensive line, we don't have statistics for them, but the offensive success in the first scrimmage suggests their very public shortcomings last year have not set well this offseason. 

Last week's scrimmage went poorly for the defense.  This was a big shock to most since Alabama returned so many starters.   I think some injuries in the secondary have something to do with that, but there also appears to be some players reading their own press clippings.

This is the last thing any Alabama fan wants to hear.  Nick Saban was not at all happy with the defense after the first scrimmage.  

This past Saturday the defense appeared to bounce back a bit, especially in stopping the run and getting more consistent pressure on the quarterback.   

After the second scrimmage, Nick's complaints were focused more on younger backups.  While it's easy to write this off, in most seasons, your depth will determine how your season ends.

Clearly if healthy, Dont'a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw are going to form one of the most dangerous linebacker duos in college football.  Their combined 17 tackles (four for loss) and two sacks shows some significant production.

Like Hart on offense, true freshman linebacker Trey DePriest keeps showing up significantly in the statistics.  It sounds like he too has a good chance to contribute this fall.  

DePriest's numbers are significant because Alabama's defense is complex, and for him to be in position to make tackles indicates he is an intelligent player who has picked up the system quickly. 

One player many are interested in that is not making a big impact statistically is transfer defensive lineman Jesse Williams.  

This isn't really unexpected.  Williams was brought in to create enough havoc on the line to draw double teams.  Williams has more of a learning curve than most and is recovering from knee surgery.

Williams is making the leap from the international amateur circuit, to American junior college, to the SEC in a short period.   He may be a bit overwhelmed right now, but this summer he will have a chance to strengthen his knee and mentally process everything.

Local product Quinton Dial has drawn positive reviews from the staff and has recorded some tackles, so it seems clear he figures in Alabama's rotation this year.  He and Williams appear to be solid pickups.  

To learn more we will have to wait until we can see it live this Saturday.  

The weather prediction looks clear with temps in the mid 60's.  If we are going to simulate a fall game, that sounds about right.

The Nick Saban statue is scheduled to be unveiled that morning, and Alabama's first true quarterback battle in years will be under way.  I expect a huge crowd.

The Saban statue is a big deal.  For those who don't understand, here is why.  

It's not so much Nick Saban himself or the accomplishments of the 2009 squad that went undefeated and won it all.  It's really about hope and redemption.

The walk of fame that is now the focal point of pregame gatherings was constructed during an era of Alabama football in which championships were far out of reach and they were losing virtually every significant SEC game.  The program had become the punchline to a national joke, a case study in failure.

As a fan, if I had a dime for every time I've been called a "cheater," a "loser" or heard that Bear Bryant is in fact dead, I'd be in the sky box this Saturday eating little mini hot dogs.  

It was a stroke of brilliance to build an empty spot for Alabama's next national championship coach during such a time.  

Around the country Alabama football was dead and buried by the press and opposing fans, especially those wearing Orange and Blue.  

I'm so glad that athletic director Mal Moore, influential boosters, all the former players, Nick Saban and hundreds of thousands of regular fans refused to accept that assessment.  

The unveiling of this statue is a confirmation that the Alabama nation was right and everyone else was wrong.   The statue also represents hope for the future.  Hope that Alabama fans will be back next year to see 2011 carved next to 2009.