College Football 2011: Why USC Could Play Spoiler and Win the Pac-12
In the nine seasons Pete Carroll led the USC football program, rarely were the Trojans considered possible "spoilers" for an upcoming season.
As possibly the most elite football school during that period, USC routinely walked through their Pac-10 schedule and into a BCS game. In fact, USC won seven straight Pac-10 titles and went to seven straight BCS bowl games under Carroll.
However, times have changed. Carroll left the Trojans for an NFL gig, and he took with him the dominant culture he instilled during his time at USC.
Can USC ever make it back to that level? Time will tell. But with cocky and confident head coach Lane Kiffin now leading the Trojans, it might come sooner rather than later.
Is next season too early? Possibly. But don't sleep on these Trojans in 2011.
First Things First
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To start, we have to address the NCAA sanctions on USC.
These sanctions, which include reducing their scholarships by 30 over three years, also states that USC is banned from the postseason.
Simply put, if their appeal to the NCAA is denied, the chance of USC getting a chance to play for the Pac-12 title in the championship game becomes zero.
And, by virtue of that, this article would become a moot point.
Let's assume though, for argument's sake, that USC wins their appeal and the ban on the postseason is lifted for next season.
They Have a Quarterback
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USC quarterback Matt Barkley hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his first two seasons (41 touchdowns, 26 interceptions), but the talent is there. He has an NFL-quality arm and can make every throw.
Heading into his third season as the starter, there's no reason to think he can't make the jump into the elite class of college quarterbacks.
And as we all know, if that happens, USC will be a tough team to beat.
Quarterback play is more essential at the NFL level, but having an elite player at that position can suddenly vault a team from good to very good in college.
Barkley could do that for USC next season. If he cuts down on the interceptions and continues to improve his accuracy, Barkley could see an Andrew Luck-type rise—both for himself and USC.
They Have a Running Back and Receiver Too
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While the quarterback is the single most important player on an offense, he wouldn't be much without the rest of the playmakers around him.
Barkley has a few weapons he can lean on at USC.
Running back Marc Tyler—a high school teammate of Jimmy Clausen and former five-star recruit—will be the work horse next season.
He injured his hamstring during spring practices, but all reports indicate Tyler will be fine for the start of the year. He possesses a fine mix of speed and power that can help USC move the chains consistently.
At receiver, USC could potentially have one of the better combos in the nation next year.
Robert Woods, a 6'1" sophomore, had nearly 800 yards receiving and six touchdowns in 2010. Coming into just his second college season, you'd have to expect him to carry a much bigger load this fall.
Opposite Woods might be another youngster—freshman George Farmer. The nation's No. 1 high school receiver last year according to ESPN, Farmer can have an immediate impact and also give USC a dangerous downfield threat.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Another Really Good Recruiting Class
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Despite NCAA sanctions on USC, Kiffin and his coaching staff put together a top-five recruiting class.
Here are some of the highlights from the 2010-11 class:
George Farmer, WR. We've already touched on him, but the 6'2", 200-pound Farmer could immediately have an impact on USC's passing game.
Antwaun Woods, DT. He already has a college-level body type and could play right away along the defensive line. Woods has a motor that never stops.
Cyrus Hobbi, OG. The best guard in the class according to ESPN, Hobbi might be able to start his freshman year along a young offensive line.
Victor Blackwell, WR. Just another offensive toy for Barkley to play with next season. Blackwell has a good size and speed combination.
Greg Townsend, DE. ESPN says Townsend is, "ahead of the curve in the overall fundamentals." That could give him an opportunity to play in passing situations right away.
Don't Forget These Guys Either
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Barkley, Tyler and Woods are the headliners, but don't forget about some of these guys either.
Nickell Robey. Just a freshman last season, Robey started every game for USC at cornerback. And despite being just 5'8" and 165 pounds, Robey managed to snag four interceptions and contribute 48 tackles in 13 games.
For his efforts, Robey was named Freshman All-American by collegesportsnews.com and honorable mention All-Pac-10.
Oh, and Robey was also the first cornerback to start as a freshman for USC in the post-World War II era.
D.J. Morgan. Tyler should receive most of the carries for USC, but Morgan is going to push him for touches. The redshirt freshman could be a game-changer at tailback.
Morgan has breathtaking athleticism, and while I'll hesitate to compare him to Reggie Bush, he could have that kind of impact for USC next year.
Matt Kalil: Former USC tackle Tyron Smith will be a first-round pick in next month's NFL draft, but Kalil will be right behind him next season.
For an inexperienced offensive line, Kalil will need be the rock up front—something he is more than capable of doing.
Easy Start to the Schedule
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USC's opening six games on their schedule include Minnesota, Utah, Syracuse, Arizona State, Arizona and California.
While Utah returns quarterback Jordan Wynn, it might be tough for the Utes to repeat a 10-3 record while in the Pac-12 next season. USC will be their first real test within the new conference.
Minnesota and Syracuse should be easy wins, and USC beat Arizona State, Arizona and California last season.
The latter three in the Pac-12 will be tough games, but USC should be favored in all three. If the Trojans could get past Utah, they would be 6-0 to start their 2011 season and on the right track toward winning the conference.
Stanford at Home
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Of course any college team will tell you it's easier to play at home than on the road.
In 2011, USC will get Stanford—one of the top contenders for the Pac-12 championship—at the Coliseum.
Andrew Luck is back for Stanford and should be an early Heisman front-runner, but don't count USC out of this matchup.
They've been tough to beat at home; Barkley and the offense have enough weapons to go toe-to-toe with Luck and company.
The Potential of an Oregonian Hangover
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No, not the kind of hangover from drinking local Rouge Ales in Eugene, Ore.
The championship game hangover. In the history of the BCS, just one team—Florida State in 1999—came back to win the National Championship a year after losing it.
However, that's not to say the Ducks don't have a real good shot at getting back there. They return playmakers in quarterback Darron Thomas, running back LaMichael James and cornerback/returner Cliff Harris.
Still, Oregon needs to replace four senior offensive lineman, leading receiver Jeff Maehl and five of their starting front seven defensively.
It's a task Oregon can accomplish, but they could potentially take a step backwards next season.
They Will Likely Get the Chance in the Conference Championship Game
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With the formation of the new Pac-12, the conference will now employ a championship game. In 2011, that might benefit USC.
In the weaker of the two divisions, USC will join Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, Colorado and Utah in the South.
While Arizona State might be the preseason favorite to win the South, they have some quarterback issues that could derail their season.
They are talented—especially on defense—but Steven Threet sounds like he's done at quarterback. If they get good quarterback play though, the South is ASU's for the taking.
Utah might also be a factor, but they've lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. There's only so much Jordan Wynn can do, especially when entering a whole new conference.
Colorado, Arizona and UCLA most likely won't be in contention to go the championship game.
USC needs to beat ASU in Tempe—no small task—and they should get a rematch with either Stanford or Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.
So, Do They Have a Chance?
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There isn't the same type of parity in college football as there is in basketball, but talent typically rules the day.
At USC, there is plenty of talent. Despite the sanctions that have been placed on them, they still have arguably one of the top collections of players on their roster.
Even so, you can't justifiably call USC the favorite to win the Pac-12 next season. In fact, ESPN blogger Ted Miller ranked them fourth in his early Pac-12 rankings, and that's a fair assessment.
But that doesn't rule out their chances. At this point, they are the spoiler with an opportunity.
Oregon and Stanford are clearly the odds-on favorites, but it would be incredibly naive to think USC couldn't beat either of those teams on a neutral field in the championship game.
While this isn't a team that will resemble the USC powerhouses of the last decade, don't sleep on these Trojans. Barkley leads what should be an exciting offense, and if the defense can play even a fraction better than they did in 2010, USC will be a scary team.
Also, don't forget this: USC won the first conference championship when the Pac-8 turned into the Pac-10 in 1978. They could do it again in 2011 as the Pac-12's first football champion.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
