College Football 2011: If Your Team Isn't on This List, They Aren't BCS Bound
You’ve no doubt already scanned a few early preseason Top 25 rankings that boldly predict who the Top 25 teams will be going into 2011.
Though it is interesting to participate in early discussions regarding who will be the top teams for next season, what does it all really mean?
Indeed, what’s the ultimate aim of a season of college football?
A winning record? A postseason ranking in one of the final polls? A decent bowl bid?
Of course “success” is a relative term and what is a fantastic season for let’s say Alabama is completely different than what the definition of a great season is for a squad like SMU.
At the end of the day, in today’s warped system, inclusion in the BCS is (outside of the championship game itself) is what most programs set as their highest bar, especially those in the six BCS AQ conferences.
Yes, the 10 teams who participate in the money festival that is the Bowl Championship Series are, quite arguably, the best teams in college football for a given year.
Along these provocative lines of thought, the following slideshow presents a different sort of “Top 25” and ranks not the best 25 teams in college football but instead the 25 teams most likely to get to the BCS in 2011.
This means that these are the teams that have the best odds-on chance to win or place second in one of the six BCS AQ conferences, go totally undefeated in a non-BCS AQ conference or, well, be Notre Dame and be in the top eight (per the BCS) teams in the country at the end of the regular season.
The BCS isn’t always about the best 10 teams in the country (i.e. UConn in 2010) so this Top 25 isn’t either ...It’s not who’s good, it’s who’s going.
25. USF
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The Bulls finished 2010 with an 8-5 record which included a win over Clemson in the Meineke Car Care Bowl.
Skip Holtz’s returns four offensive and six defensive starters to a squad that was defensively strong and struggled offensively.
Vegas has USF at 100/1 odds to win the BCS and the 2011 non-conference schedule includes a road trip to Notre Dame in the opener and then home games against Ball State, Florida A&M and UTEP.
The Bulls road to the BCS is pretty simple, win the Big East, which based on last year’s finish is up for grabs in 2011.
USF has road games at Pitt, UConn, Rutgers and Cincinnati but has Miami (FL), Louisville, and West Virginia (in the season finale) all at home in Tampa.
Skip Holtz doesn’t play around and will ultimately taste success at USF; in 2011 the Bulls should be in contention to vie for a Big East crown and make a run at a BCS bid.
24. Utah
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Coming into their new home in the Pac-12 the Utes are a bit of an unknown coming into 2011.
Utah finished 2010 10-3 and lost to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl. They return five defensive starters on and seven on offense including QB Jordan Wynn.
The Utes were a solid team in 2010 with high marks in both offensive scoring (No. 23 overall) and defensive scoring (No. 24 overall); their only losses were to TCU, Notre Dame and Boise State.
Utah could easily be lost in the shuffle of the new Pac-12 but they were somewhat fortunate in landing in what should be the easier of the two new divisions, the South, which consists of Arizona State, USC (not eligible for post season play again this year), Arizona, UCLA and Colorado.
Though they have road games at USC, at BYU, at Arizona and at Pittsburgh the Utes don’t face Stanford or Oregon at all.
In order to make a BCS bid a reality the Utes would need to win the South Division (it could happen) and either win the first ever Pac-12 title game or hope the Pac-12 champion makes it to the title game in 2011 leaving another slot open for the Pac-12 second place finisher.
What remains to be seen is what the change in level of competition will be for Utah as they make the switch from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, and, of course how they cope with this historic conversion.
23. Pittsburgh
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Pitt was the favorite to win the Big East coming into the 2010 season but finished a disappointing 8-5 culminating in the firing of head coach Dave Wannstedt.
The talented Todd Graham (from Tulsa) takes over at Pitt in 2011 with eight starters returning on each side of the ball including QB Tino Sunseri.
Two of Pitt’s three tough non-conference tests are at home (Notre Dame and Utah) while one, Iowa, is a road game.
The Panthers have Syracuse and USF at home but will have to travel to West Virginia and Louisville.
Again, somebody will have to step up and win the Big East and subsequently represent their conference in the BCS.
West Virginia seems the likely candidate, but, anything can happen once the season begins. With all the hype gone from the beginning of the 2010 season and expectations lowered, how will Pitt react?
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22. Arizona State
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Nearly every early Top 25 list has Arizona State somewhere near the bottom. The most plausible explanation for why a team that finished 6-6 in 2010 has such high hopes must be the fact that they return 10 offensive and nine defensive starters in 2011.
An effective passing team in 2010 (No. 15 overall in passing yards per game) the Sun Devils return most of their offensive firepower in 2011.
What makes Arizona State a member of the BCS Top 25 is the fact that they (like Utah) landed in the South Division of the new Pac-12. This is a division that does not count Oregon or Stanford among its members, and, even though USC is positioned in the South the Trojans are again barred from postseason play in 2011.
The non-conference schedule is stiff with a home game versus Missouri and a road trip to Illinois. Tough road trips include Utah and Oregon with the Arizona game at home in Tempe.
The Sun Devils are more than likely the favorite to win the first ever Pac-12 South title, which would place them in a position to play in the Pac-12 championship with the distinct possibility of finishing second or third in the conference.
This equals a BCS bid, but there are a lot of “ifs” between now and January of 2012.
21. Miami (FL)
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Randy Shannon’s four-year stint as the head coach at Miami ended with a thud as the highly touted Hurricanes finished 2010 with three straight losses and a disappointing 7-6 finish.
New leader Al Golden will have six offensive and seven defensive starters returning in 2011 to a team that played inconsistently in 2010.
Miami shouldn’t be overlooked in an ACC Coastal conference race that has been dominated by Virginia Tech, the Hokies lose a bunch of offensive fire power coming into 2011 and this could be the year for the Hurricanes to knock them off.
Miami’s 2011 recruiting class ranked No. 36 in the land and Vegas seems to give the Hurricanes at least a nominal nod granting 50/1 odds that Miami will win the BCS.
The Hurricanes will have to earn their place in the ACC title game (and beyond) by surviving a schedule that includes hosting a somewhat reduced Ohio State squad and a good Kansas State team in September followed by road trips to Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State and USF.
20. West Virginia
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If they can overcome big defensive losses from a “D” that ranked an impressive No. 3 overall last season, the Mountaineers should be the favorite to win the Big East and punch their BCS dance card for the first time since 2008.
West Virginia returns eight offensive and only four defensive starters to a team that finished 2010 at a 9-4 mark.
What changes everything in 2011 are incoming offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and his amped offense that has the potential to quite literally turn the Big East upside down.
Besides the opener versus. in state rival Marshall (a home game) the Mountaineers have two huge non-conference games; one a road trip to Maryland (who should be tough) and secondly a visit from LSU (who should also be in the BCS conversation).
West Virginia can afford to drop an early game and still be a BCS candidate but either way they will have to be near perfect in conference play.
Again, if the defense can step up and if the offense can acclimate to Holgorsen’s spread ‘em out and slay ‘em attack the Mountaineers may well be the big sleeper in 2011.
19. Penn State
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The Nittany Lions are another team you will have a hard time finding listed among the preseason Top 25 squads, but Penn State has all the right pieces to surprise in 2011.
The 2010 edition of the Nittany Lions finished a disappointing 7-6 and next year’s squad returns seven offensive and eight defensive starters.
Of the interesting bits of next season for Penn State will be that they will compete in the first ever Big Ten Leaders Division race, headlined by Wisconsin and Ohio State.
Though the Buckeyes (troubled as they are) and Badgers will both field solid teams if they should stumble and Penn State gels the Nittany Lions could vie for at least a second place finish in the Big Ten.
Las Vegas concurs with this analysis stamping Penn State with lofty 20/1 odds to win the entire BCS.
It won’t be easy though as the Nittany Lions host Alabama during the second week of the season and finish out their 2011 campaign with a three punch combination, beginning with hosting the Cornhuskers in Happy Valley followed by road trips to the land of failing vest at Ohio State and the season finale at Wisconsin.
Still, don’t count them out.
18. Virginia Tech
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It seems like every year we discuss how Frank Beamer will cope with some sort of personnel losses, and, then every year we watch them play in either the BCS or in a big time non-BCS bowl game.
Despite the loss of Tyrod Taylor and friends in 2011 the Hokies look to be the favorites to win the ACC Coastal Division.
Returning six offensive and seven defensive starters from a squad that finished 11-3 the Hokies are 28/1 odds to win the whole ball of wax.
Welcoming in the No. 33 recruiting class in the land won’t hurt and neither will the fact that the Hokies don’t face Florida State during the regular season in 2011.
The non-conference schedule seems less hazardous than last season (Appalachian State, at East Carolina, Arkansas State and at Marshall) and Clemson, Miami (FL), Boston College and North Carolina are all home games.
It’s a fairly simple path back to the BCS for the Hokies; win the Coastal Division, either win the ACC championship game again or hope the winner (perhaps Florida State) goes undefeated and gets bumped up to the BCS title game.
17. Texas
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Out of the top contenders for the now championship-less Big 12 title the Longhorns might seem like the least likely to have an actual shot to go all the way.
Frankly, that might be a wrong assumption.
Texas returns eight offensive, six defensive starters and virtually zero assistant coaches to a team that crashed and burned in 2011.
But, this is still a team with enough fire power to blast through their schedule.
The non-conference slate includes a visit from BYU and a return trip to UCLA; road trips are to Iowa State, Baylor, Missouri and A&M while he Longhorns have Oklahoma State and Texas Tech at home in Austin.
If Texas can pull themselves together, find leaders and play like they have to win every second of every game, they could run the tables or finish with one or two losses.
Don’t think so?
Vegas has the Longhorns at 20/1 odds of winning the title in 2011.
16. Florida
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It’s funny how everyone labeled the Gators 2010 campaign as a disappointing failure. Yes, Florida lost five games in 2010, won only four conference games and had to score 17 points in the fourth quarter to beat Penn State in the Outback Bowl.
But, the Gators (despite only returning five starters to each side of the ball from the 2009 team that went 13-1) were ranked No. 43 in scoring and No. 29 in defense, these stats despite playing a full SEC schedule.
The 2011 Florida team returns seven offensive and six defense starters and is considerably bolstered by the No. 12 ranked incoming recruiting class.
Regardless of how the dark haired Will Muschamp and offensive savior Charlie Weis (seriously?) handle things down in Gainesville, the Gators are stacked.
Winning the SEC East certainly won’t be a piece of cake especially with a schedule that features tough road games at LSU, at Auburn and at South Carolina plus two ginormous home games against Alabama and Florida State.
Florida, like Texas, is so talented that despite any logical analysis of the stats, they can spring up and strike quickly and effectively.
Regardless of the fact that South Carolina looks to be the favorite in the East, Las Vegas says Florida has 15/1 odds to win it all while the Gamecocks have only a 50/1 chance.
15. Nebraska
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Bo Pelini will lead the Cornhuskers to their historic first season in the new Big Ten with five offensive and seven defensive starters back from a team that that finished 2010 10-4.
Nebraska will have the opportunity to welcome the No. 12 ranked recruiting class in the country on their way to their new conference home.
So, how does Nebraska fit into the Big Ten and how will they play against an entirely new set of big time opponents?
The non-conference schedule sets up well for a possible 4-0 start going into the Big Ten opener at Wisconsin (followed by hosting Ohio State in Lincoln) and the meat of the road schedule comes at the end of the season with three consecutive conference visitations (Penn State, Michigan and Iowa).
Nebraska fortuitously was placed in the Big Ten Legends division which means the road to the first ever Big Ten championship game means besting Michigan State, Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern and Minnesota.
It seems plausible that if the Cornhuskers can fill a few holes that a division crown is doable and a trip to the BCS possible.
14. Notre Dame
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It is hard to be taken seriously when you predict what the Fighting Irish might do; if you say they will do well you are just buying into the Notre Dame media frenzy and if you say they will play poorly you are just another hater.
All whining aside, 2011 may be the Irish’s most realistic chance to reach the BCS since it played (and lost miserably to LSU) in the 2007 Sugar Bowl.
Notre Dame returns eight offensive and eight defensive starters to a team that finished 2010 8-5 including a Sun Bowl victory over Miami (FL).
The Irish never have an easy slate of games and 2011 is no exception with road trips to Michigan, Pittsburgh, Stanford and home stands against USF, Michigan State, Air Force, USC, Navy, Maryland and Boston College.
Remember, to become bowl eligible (and make NBC get all frothy at the mouth and cheesy as hell) the Irish have to be ranked No. 8 or higher in the BCS standings.
Definitely a possibility, especially with the No. 10 ranked incoming recruiting class taking the bus to South Bend.
13. TCU
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Though they didn’t gain any real national media focus until the Rose Bowl victory, the Horned Frogs 2010 campaign was absolutely stellar.
No. 2 in the final AP Polls, a perfect 13-0 finish including a thrilling 21-19 victory in “the granddaddy of them all” over Wisconsin, 2010 will be hard for TCU to top, especially with only four starters coming back on each side of the ball.
But, TCU needs only to go undefeated in 2011 for a repeat BCS bid; a feat that will be made more difficult with Boise State coming to the Mountain West for TCU’s final year as a MWC member.
Now only one of the two” traditional” (a word I use loosely) BCS busters can do there busting .
For the Horned Frogs to go unscathed next season here is what will take; wins on the road against Baylor, Air Force, San Diego State, Wyoming and Boise State and then home victories over ULM, Portland State, SMU, New Mexico, BYU and Colorado State.
Can they do it? Sure.
Will they do it? Vegas says 20/1 odds they will.
12. South Carolina
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The Gamecocks chances of finally busting into the BCS come down to one thing; finishing second in the SEC.
Not just winning the SEC East and making it to the conference championship game, but having the second best record in the SEC.
Sure, they could win the SEC and do it, but, what has held them back to this point is having a good enough conference record to be the second team in the SEC and therefore selected for the BCS money dance.
The 2011 Gamecocks will have seven offensive and six defensive starters back from the 2010 squad who finished literally just short of their BCS goal.
Along for the ride will be the No. 18 ranked recruiting class and DE Jadeveon Clowney, the No. 1 overall recruit in the nation.
South Carolina will have to find a way to pull ten or eleven wins out of their hats in a schedule which includes road trips to Georgia, Mississippi State, Tennessee and Arkansas. On the plus side is the fact that Florida and Clemson are both at home and LSU and Alabama don’t grace the schedule at all.
It may be wholly unfair that the Big East sends a representative like UConn to the BCS while a good teams like South Carolina and LSU sit and watch at home; but, at least for now, that’s how it works.
No more than two teams from each conference in the BCS; South Carolina will have to win (a bunch of games against great teams) to get in.
11. Wisconsin
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The Badgers finished 2010 just one game away (a 10-point loss to Michigan State) from making the BCS title game for the first time in history.
For 2011 the Badgers return four offensive and six defensive starters from 2010 and their incoming recruiting class is ranked No. 40 nationally.
So, can the Badgers, minus QB Scott Tolzien successfully manage their 2011 schedule and find a place in the first ever Big Ten championship game?
Wisconsin is in the new Leaders division of the Big Ten where their biggest competition looks to be Ohio State and Penn State.
A tough non-conference meeting at home against Oregon State in Week 2 is followed by a meeting with very good Northern Illinois team at Soldier Field.
Notable road trips are to Michigan State, Ohio State and Illinois with Nebraska and Penn State coming to Madison.
Out of all of the Big Ten “Legends” contenders Wisconsin has the most agreeable schedule in which to make a run from, the big question is can they do it with a young quarterback and new linebackers?
10. Oklahoma State
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The 2010 Cowboys were predicted to finish at the bottom of the Big 12 South and instead went offensively insane finishing 11-2 and ranked No. 13 in the final AP poll.
In 2011 Oklahoma State returns nine offensive and five defensive starters; the biggest concerns being the loss of RB Kendall Hunter, the loss of OC Dana Holgorsen and continuing to improve a defense that ranked No. 61 in scoring in 2010.
The Cowboys won’t have to worry about playing in a Big 12 championship game in 2011 but they will have to finish the season with a better record than Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Texas. That means they will likely need to beat at least two of these teams to be in the BCS conversation.
OSU has two early non-conference tests against Arizona at home and then on the road versus a very good Tulsa team.
Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri and Texas Tech are all road games while Oklahoma will have to travel to Stillwater to meet the Cowboys in the closer.
Can they really manage to bust through the Big 12 and into the BCS?
Well, can the Cowboys play better defense, still be offensively dominant without Holgorsen and win 11 games?
If so the ceiling will be shattered and the Cowboys will finally have a scrumptious, juicy piece of the cash-berry pie.
9. Stanford
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Stanford capped off their 2010 season with a 40-12 stomping of Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. After the dust finally settled, the Cardinal stood mightily at 12-1 and ranked No. 4 in the final AP poll.
Gone now is Coach Jim Harbaugh but back for 2011 are QB Andrew Luck, four other offensive starters, six defensive starters and the No. 11 ranked incoming recruiting class in the land.
The new alignment of the expanded Pac-12 has Stanford in the North Division which means they will have to best Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State to make an appearance in the first ever Pac-12 Championship.
The Cardinal has Notre Dame, Oregon, UCLA and Cal at home but will face Arizona, USC and Oregon State on the wall.
The new format in the Pac-12 will make it more difficult to reach the BCS and Stanford will likely have to beat Oregon and only suffer one loss to make a repeat appearance.
8. Ohio State
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The situation in Columbus, Ohio seems to get more interesting and blurry by the moment. But, regardless of how it plays out Ohio State will still suit up a talented squad of athletes in 2011.
The 2010 Buckeyes went 12-1 including a narrow victory over Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl; OSU has eight offensive and four defensive starters are on tap to return in 2011.
Ohio State is a new member of the Big Ten Leaders division which means that beating Wisconsin, Penn State, Illinois, Purdue and Indiana will be necessary in to make an appearance in the first ever conference championship game.
The schedule is highlighted by an early visit (without some key personnel) to Miami (FL) and road trips to Nebraska and Michigan. Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin are all home games.
By the most conservative estimates it would seem safe to say that Tressel will be back (after a five game suspension) in 2011 as will be the talented but tattooed “five” including QB Terrelle Pryor and WE DeVier Posey.
Regardless of the very real drama and possible NCAA sanctions it would be ridiculous to count Ohio State out of the BCS for 2011.
The facts are crystal clear and difficult to refute; the Buckeyes haven’t missed the BCS since 2005.
7. Texas A&M
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The Aggies were certainly expected to make an upwards move in 2010, and after a six-game regular season-ending winning streak, they managed a solid 9-4 finish and a No. 19 ranking in the final AP Poll.
For 2011 Texas A&M returns a whopping nine starters on offense, eight on defense and two on special teams. Good news for a team that finished 2010 ranked No. 34 in both scoring offense and scoring defense.
The Aggies haven’t been to the BCS dance since 1999 (which was also their only visit) when they lost to Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl.
To finally get them back in the mix the Aggies (like the Oklahoma State Cowboys) have to manage eleven wins including beating a string of formidable conference opponents.
The major obstacles are a Week 4 visit from Oklahoma State, a Week 5 meeting with Arkansas in Arlington, Texas and road trips to Texas Tech and, unfortunately, Norman to face the top ranked Sooners.
On the plus side the Aggies have Missouri and Texas at home in College Station.
If A&M can manage to survive the season with one or maybe two losses and Oklahoma goes undefeated and makes the championship game, the Aggies may have a chance to land a BCS at large bid.
6. Boise State
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It finally feels as if our college football nation is shifting its opinion about Boise State and their move to the Mountain West will, at least for this year, help the Broncos to gain even more support across the country.
The Broncos return seven starters to each side of the ball from their 2010 team that was one shocking loss away to Nevada from a return to the BCS for the third time in their history.
In 2011 Boise State will have to be successful at running the tables to be back in busting business; this means a monumental victory over Georgia (in Atlanta) in the opener, home wins over Tulsa, Nevada, Air Force, TCU, Wyoming and New Mexico along with road victories at Toledo, at Fresno State, at Colorado State, at UNLV and at San Diego State.
They will have to win every single game.
Vegas gives the Broncos 12/1 odds at remaining unblemished and with their returning talent the Broncos seem the non-AQ team with the most firepower to get it done.
5. Florida State
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Will 2011 really be the year the Seminoles return to the BCS for the first time since 2006? Can they combine eight returning starters on each side of the ball with the No. 2 ranked incoming recruiting class to win a national title for the first time since 2000?
A compelling argument can certainly be made for Florida State going all the way in 2011 but the road to the BCS will have to pass a substantial string of tests that start with a Week 3 visit from top ranked Oklahoma and include stops at Clemson and Florida.
Maryland, NC State and Miami (FL) are all home games in 2011.
The schedule seems doable, especially to reach a one loss record, which is exactly what the Seminoles will need to be BCS bound.
Las Vegas gives Florida State 10/1 odds to take home the crystal football.
4. LSU
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The LSU Tigers return eight offensive and seven defensive starters to a team that went 11-2 in 2010.
The Tigers defense soared last season while their offense sputtered and struggled; but regardless of having the No. 107 ranked passing offense in the land, Les Miles and his team found a way to win some huge (and bizarre) games.
If LSU can build on their successes in 2010 they will have to do just that again, win BIG games. How big? Well, how does an opener versus. top ranked Oregon in Arlington Texas, road trips to Mississippi State, West Virginia, Tennessee and Alabama suit you?
If that wasn’t enough the Tigers will host Kentucky, Florida, Auburn and Arkansas in the Swamp in 2011.
This is exactly the kind of schedule that, if survived, screams “CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON!” at the top of its raspy, gator tainted, whisky lubricated, lungs.
But LSU always makes you wonder, can the voodoo that Les do in 2010 carry over to 2011?
3. Oregon
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In Chip Kelly’s second year at the helm the Ducks landed just three points short of taking home the championship hardware.
In 2011 the “best dressed” team in college football will return six starters on offense, five on defense and two on special teams (oh yeah, they also have the No. 9 ranked incoming recruiting class).
Placed in the new Pac-12’s North Division the Ducks will have to hold off Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State to make an appearance in the first ever Pac-12 championship game.
The Ducks road back to the BCS includes a barn burner in the opener versus LSU (in Arlington, Texas) and road trips to Arizona, Colorado, Washington and Stanford.
Oregon has Cal, Arizona State, USC and Oregon State at home.
Really, Oregon’s returning personnel and schedule seem more favorable than that of Stanford’s for making a run at the Pac-12 North, a Pac-12 crown and a BCS berth.
Vegas gives the quackers 14/1 odds to go all the way.
2. Oklahoma
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The Sooners return eight offensive, seven defensive and two special teams starters from a team that finished 2010 12-2.
The new format of the reduced Big 12 means that the Sooners’ steps to the BCS have been cut back to just winning the conference as opposed to winning a divisional crown and then playing and winning a conference championship game.
Yes, it’s simpler but Oklahoma will still have to contend early season tests at home against Tulsa and on the road for a whopper of a game at Florida State.
The Sooners have Texas A&M, Missouri and Texas Tech at home but will have to hit the road to play Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma, already stacked full with talent, has the No. 14 ranked incoming recruiting class to make an already deep team, well, deeper.
Vegas says 7/2 odds, ESPN and others have them as the preseason No. 1 and all eyes will be on the Sooners in 2011.
Next season will indeed be Sooners big chance to win it all, but, we all know anything can happen during a road trip to New Orleans.
1. Alabama
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Despite suffering three conference losses the Crimson Tide finished the 2010 season in commanding fashion with a 49-7 stomping of Michigan State in the Capitol One Bowl.
The 2011 Alabama team returns six offensive, nine defensive and two special teams’ starters and also touts the No. 1 ranked incoming recruiting class.
The sense of an overwhelming hunger and a desire for an opportunity to right the wrongs committed in 2010 ooze from the 2011 Crimson Tide.
Alabama will need more than just momentum to carry them to the BCS in 2011 with road games at Penn State, at Florida, at Mississippi State and at Auburn.
The good news is that Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU are all at home.
The SEC West is the toughest division in all of college football, if the Crimson Tide can make it there, they can make it anywhere.
Vegas says Alabama has a 15/2 chance of running the tables and being the sixth consecutive SEC team to win it all.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
