SEC Football: 10 Signs the League Will Be Down This Year
Looking toward SEC country, most are wondering what is brewing this season. Last year was supposed to be a down year for the league, but Alabama was going to still make it to the title game if they ran their gauntlet of a schedule undefeated. Florida had a chance as well.
Oh, what a difference a year makes, as Auburn is coming off of its second National Championship in school history. What a year it was in the SEC, with numerous big plays and first round draft picks rising to the challenge to retain the title of nation’s toughest conference.
But what will 2011 bring? Will the title come from the perennial powerhouse of a conference known as the SEC? There can be no doubts that surprises will occur this season and one star, if not multiple stars, will rise and move on to the professional ranks. With all the talent that travels around the south, there is no way that the conference can have a down year, right?
This season may bring a different conference to the forefront of the conversation. As heavy as the non-qualifying schools were the big talk in 2010, look for a dip in the SEC to show a rise in another major conference. Because of the national dissidence towards the conference prowess, any rise somewhere else will cause for chatter.
So what will cause this downward spiral? There are 10 signs that this league could take a dip in 2011.
SEC Legend Departs
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Say what you will about Urban Meyer. Love him or hate him, he will go down as one of the legends of the SEC. He brought his speed QB led spread concept to Florida and rode it to two National Championships. Meyer also successfully tutored one of the best at the quarterback position that has ever played in the Southeastern Conference.
Urban always had his way with opposing fanbases. He was the guy that everyone loved to beat. There was no particular thing that he would say, but more of what he did made for the disdain that rival fanbases had for Meyer.
Meyer had a presence as if he owned the room and even the microphone or recorder that every reporter was holding. Don’t get me wrong; most coaches have arrogance, but his spilled onto the floor in front of the television screen.
Despite this one major flaw that made his success even the more annoying for most, the guy won ballgames. He led a very successful offense and built a speedy defense on the hotbed that is the Florida recruiting trail. Meyer will take his talents elsewhere if I had a guess at some point in the not so distant future. Be that as it may, he will live on as a legend in the SEC but leave a large hole at a BCS era perennial powerhouse.
Big Winners Host New Quarterbacks
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Look across the SEC, and what you will notice are a lot of new faces taking snaps this season. With the departure of title ring wearing Greg McElroy and Cam Newton, live armed Ryan Mallett and a number of issues at the position elsewhere, this position does not look strong in the conference.
The problem is if you look to the past national title winners, you see steady and impactful quarterback play that has led to great teams. Even where starters return, questions still remain. Even though Brantley returns at Florida, was last year a fluke or can the guy really not read a defense?
And what about the circus that is going on at LSU? LSU may be the most talented team year in and year out in the country, but the quarterback situation is worse than interpreting a Les Miles press conference. With Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee returning and Zack Mettenberger coming in off of transfer, the race is wide open.
The problem is Jefferson and Lee were horrible last year in combined efforts, and Mettenberger has no big time experience. Even at Georgia where Aaron Murray is poised for a great second year, there is a question as to who he is going to throw to.
There is no doubt that a star could emerge this season, as all of the teams have a wealth of talent at the position. It simply is the fact that no one returns with a ton of quality snaps. Carolina does return Garcia, but honestly, that may be a bigger problem than solution.
The Reigning National Champ Won’t Be in the Hunt
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This may be the first year that I can remember in the recent era of the BCS that the reigning title winner is nowhere to be found in the top five, much less the top 15, of most early prediction polls. Auburn loses a ton of experience but may be more talented than ever.
Despite the wealth of talent in the past recruiting classes, the experience factor is missing, with only three returning starters on each side of the ball. Auburn also is facing a shortage of scholarship bodies with typical team attrition and a few felonies.
Nothing tells anyone that Auburn will be in the title hunt in 2011, and that is not a good sign for the SEC. The attention a title brings to the conference will boost the conventional perspective of the surrounding teams in conference, but when that team returns as barely a top 25 team, the rankings of its conference mates will drop as well.
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South Carolina is the Favorite in the East
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How can this have anything to do with the future of SEC success? It is actually a pretty simple concept. With the Gamecocks returning tons of talent and a winning mentality, they should be the favorite going into the season to pull out the Eastern Conference Division title.
That means that Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are expecting down years. The big three so to speak in the East will be having less success, so nationally, the perception again will be down of the conference.
Georgia has a shot to be a good squad, and so does Florida. But after last year’s extreme downslide and a change at one school and another looming in the foreseeable future, the traditional powers will be missing from the top 10.
Say what you will, but the Gamecocks don’t have the national following of its fellow Eastern Division mates. So with the success of a traditionally less successful squad, the perception of the conference and its presence nationally will deflate a bit.
Two Heisman Winners Depart
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The Heisman Trophy has become the most advertised individual trophy in the sport of football. No other statue brings with it a nationally recognized pose. Kids do it in their front yards on an almost weekly basis, and adults love to strike “The Pose” when they have had one too many at a game.
What this attention has brought the SEC after fielding back to back winners is amazing. Both Ingram and Newton have announced for the draft despite both being juniors this season. What an accomplishment that both young men were able to achieve for their schools and conference, but what a shock they are doing to the system by leaving.
The commercials and the hype lines before games are gone. The SEC can only use this tool as a past and no longer a present selling tool. For what little it may bring, it also brings status to a league that sees itself alone already. The legend of both men is etched in memory and in the record books, but one more year of physical presence would have done wonders for the SEC marketing team and upped the talent pool in conference.
No Separator Found…Yet
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Typically as the season looms in the distant future, there is a clear leader in the conference and in turn in the country. This year, Alabama is getting its typical fan fair, but they are not so steady themselves. Replacing defensive linemen, a starting quarterback and losing the one from your one-two punch hurts.
That being said, who is the clear cut leader in the conference? This year is setting up for a much different face on the BCS title game and should squelch some of the talk of the major conferences unfairly holding the reins of the BCS horse.
While all of this is great for the BCS, as a whole, it is bad for the SEC. Without a face to commercialize for the conference, national perception of the conference will slip.
Florida Is Not the Best Team…in Florida
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Florida has been a traditional powerhouse as of late and has almost been the cornerstone of the SEC, no doubt the SEC East. With the slip of Urban Meyer and the slip of his win column at Florida toward the end of his tenure, other teams in the state have stepped up to the challenge of national awareness and prominence.
The one team that sticks out the most is obviously Florida State. Miami of course has been shaky at best but Florida State has been picking back up the steam from its early 90’s days. Jimbo Fisher is the first successful coach in waiting that may be the last.
If Florida State keeps up the steam and can piggy back on the Meyer departure, the Seminoles may be the team to beat in Florida not only in 2011 but for years into the future.
Self Cancelation
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Looking at the future of the SEC and the future of where the conference fits in the title picture, the day of the two loss National Champion is gone. LSU pulled off quite the feat a few years back, but not even the magic of the Mad Hatter will be able to bring that miracle back again.
That being said, the SEC is going to face self cancelation soon enough. This year seems better than any other for the odds to stack against the teams in the conference. With no clear leader of the pack and with all the talent that has been spread around the conference the last couple of years, it is hard to foresee another undefeated or even one loss team.
This year will may most likely be the first year the National Title game doesn’t include an SEC team in recent memory.
Defensive Downward Spiral
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Despite the number of playmakers that the conference has pumped out, the overall performance of defenses across the league have seemed to start on a downward path. The trend of stout defense has already begun to go by the wayside nationally, but the SEC has held hard and fast to the concept that defense wins championships.
Defense is a must for a team to be successful, but if you take a look around the league and take a look at the recent champion, defense has not been as effective. There are a number of changes and transformations that are going on, especially with the offensive side of the ball, and with that comes adaptation on the defensive side as well.
Nationwide, the changes to offenses and the big plays and yards have led to lofty stats and an apparent lack of defensive stands in many situations. With some of the bigger named weapons leaving this year, the stats may slow, or they may reload. Either way, the defense is down across the conference, and that leads to losses.
Is Power Recruiting a Strength or Weakness?
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In the wild world of recruiting, coaches and fans alike stand by on the first Wednesday in February awaiting the signatures of the most elite talent in the country. The Southeastern Conference has been a standing powerhouse not only on the field but on the recruiting trail as well.
Consistently landing three or more teams in the top five recruiting classes in the nation ensures your level of talent year in and year out. Every coach and every fan wants the best of the best on the playing field on Saturday. With that being said, could the curse of talent exist?
The last few years has seen a spike in recruiting not only to the traditional powerhouse teams and big time recruiting hotbed state schools but the love spread to other teams inside major conferences. Not only in the SEC have talented athletes been choosing to attend less traditional winning programs, and a lot has to do with media coverage.
Most teams in major conferences will see time on the television at one point or another through out the season. In the SEC, every team is guaranteed T.V. time. What has occurred is an even balance of great talent across the conference.
Sure, there are teams with more running backs or defensive tackles, but overall, the talent is spread out. Looking at the top 10 in the mythical recruiting rankings, you see a juggling effect depending on which service you look to.
The talent has become more discoverable as well with highlight videos coming from YouTube. What the spread has done has made it more difficult to win the “should win” games in conference. The traditional stepping stones are becoming more prominent every year, and this cause and effect with recruiting leads to a more well rounded conference but more losses as well.
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