Fantasy Baseball Decisions: 5 Pitchers I Am Not Likely to Draft Based on ADP

It is not that I don’t like these pitchers; it’s just that I feel like their ADPs (courtesy of Mock Draft Central) have them going a little bit earlier than I’d prefer to call their names:

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies: 42.60

He’s being selected as the sixth starting pitcher off the board and I just don’t see it at this point.  We all know the type of start he had in 2010 (15-1, 2.20 ERA prior to the All-Star Break) which was simply amazing, but can we really just ignore how badly he struggled at times (4.41 ERA in June, 6.04 ERA in July and 4.34 ERA in September)? 

Let us not overlook his strand rates of 91.7 and 93.1 percents over the first two months of the season.  I wouldn’t scoff at his second-half numbers (4-7, 3.80 ERA), but are those really good enough to make him a top-six option?  CC Sabathia and Clayton Kershaw are just a few names I’d rather own.

Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels: 50.09

Really?  I know he actually pitched better once he was dealt to the AL (2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP in 94.0 innings), but he also benefitted from an 80.2 percent strand rate and .274 BABIP.  Can we really expect him to be able to maintain those numbers? 

He has great control, so he should maintain an elite WHIP, but I can’t buy into him posting a spectacular ERA.  Yovani Gallardo and Justin Verlander are both pitchers I’d much rather own (and both are being selected after Haren).

David Price, Tampa Bay Rays: 60.34

Not only does he pitch in the toughest division in baseball, he benefitted from a .279 BABIP and 78.5 percent strand rate.  Would it really be a surprise if he suffers from a regression in 2011?  Would you put it at better or worse than 50%? 

I’d take the over on that one, making it impossible for me to take him in rounds five or six, like he is currently going.

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs: 92.03

He has posted ERAs of 2.96, 3.65 and 3.85 over the past three seasons.  Of course he also has had WHIPs of 1.31 and 1.32 over the past two, which hurts his stock somewhat.  He’s not a strikeout-an-inning guy. 

In fact, for his career he has a 7.7 K/9.  While his control has been better the past few seasons (BB/9 of 3.31, 2.93 and 3.59), it is hard to trust him as a SP2.  If you are selecting him this early, that’s what you are taking him as.  Of the guys going after him, I’d much rather own Chris Carpenter, Max Scherzer and Roy Oswalt, among numerous others.

Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics: 94.43

He was highly impressive in 2009, with 18 W, 2.97 ERA and 1.11 WHIP.  Who really believes any of it?  Wins are erratic, we all know that.  The ERA and WHIP were buoyed by a .236 BABIP.  He hardly strikes anyone out (5.40 K/9). 

May be he has some upside in the strikeouts, but it is far from enough to convince me he should be a Top-100 pick.  I compared him to Chien-Ming Wang a few months back (click here to view).  Is Wang a pitcher that you ever would have selected this early?  I don’t think so.

What are your thoughts of these pitchers?  Would you select them where they are currently going?  Why or why not?

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Make sure to check out our 2011 rankings:

• Top 15 Catchers
• Top 15 First Basemen
• Top 15 Second Basemen
• Top 15 Third Basemen
• Top 15 Shortstops
• Top 30 Outfielders
• Top 30 Starting Pitchers
• Top 15 Closers

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