NCAA Bracket 2011: Biggest Challenges for No. 1 Seeds Making the Final Four
It's March, and the Madness is in the air. We call it March Madness for a reason; every year, the teams change, but the Madness stays the same.
Only once has the Final Four consisted of only No. 1 seeds. That means that at least one No. 1 seed has been upset every year except one. Every year there are obstacles that the best teams must face, and just about every year at least one of them can't overcome them.
This year, the No. 1 seeds are: Ohio State, Kansas, Pittsburgh and Duke. These four teams are the best in the nation, but they are by no means perfect. Each of these teams has the potential to lose in one of their first four games, and each of them actually has at least two challenges ahead of them.
So what are the challenges that the No. 1 seeds must overcome this year?
Meet the Duke Blue Devils
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The Duke Blue Devils are a small team that relies on guard play and threes to win. Duke has good half-court offense, and when they hit their threes they are deadly. Duke has a pretty good help defense when they are in a half-court situation, but they struggle to defend big men and transition points.
Teams that can beat Duke would be teams who can dominate the paint, and get hands in their faces when they shoot threes. They would also be able to run, and they would be able to score inside.
Unfortunately for Duke, there are a few teams who could beat them in the early rounds. These teams all have big men who would be able to outplay the Plumlee brothers, Kyle Singler and Ryan Kelly inside.
Duke Challenge No. 1: Tennessee Volunteers
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Tennessee is a big team that can crash the boards with the best teams in the nation.
The Vols have Brian Williams and Tobias Harris, both of whom are great rebounders, and can get second-chance points. They also have Scotty Hopson, who can push the ball and beat the Blue Devils in transition.
Tennessee plays eighth-seeded Michigan in the first round, but they should win that game too. Michigan is an even smaller team than Duke, and Williams and Harris will be able to bully them around.
Look for an interesting Duke-Tennessee matchup in the round of 32.
Duke Challenge No. 2: Arizona Wildcats
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The Wildcats are a young team, that may settle for jumpers a bit too much, but they have the potential to go inside and destroy Duke.
Arizona has Derrick Williams, who is the type of player who can take over a game. Williams is a big enough guy to take on the Plumlees, and he is athletic enough to score all day long. If Arizona tries to get it into Williams, Duke will have its hands full.
Arizona has to go through Memphis and the winner of Texas-Oakland. I don’t see Memphis upsetting them, but I do see Oakland topping Texas. Oakland has the makings of a Cinderella, but they probably won’t beat Arizona. Arizona and Duke is a probable matchup, no matter which team wins the Texas-Oakland game.
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Duke Challenge No. 3: San Diego State Aztecs
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The Aztecs are a team with a few good forwards, and they could very well bully Duke down low. James Rahon and Kawhi Leonard lead the team in the paint, and if they can get to the Elite Eight, they could meet up with Duke.
SDSU is impressive on the glass, and they can destroy Duke in rebounds. This would lead to an exit for Duke in the Elite Eight, which is why SDSU is on here.
NOT the Connecticut Huskies
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UConn lives and dies with the play of Kemba Walker, and while the Huskies do have other tools, they all flow through Walker.
So if Walker is the leading candidate for Player of the Year, why am I not worried at all? Well, I’ll tell you. Duke has Nolan Smith, another POY candidate, and he has stellar defense on opposing guards. Smith can shut down the best of the best, and Walker is no exception. Even if Smith is out at times, then Kyle Singler can cover him. Singler is a guard in a forward’s body. He’s quick and tall; he’s long and can stick with his man.
Duke can cover Walker with only one guy, and the rest of their bunch is good enough to shut down the rest of UConn’s players. Duke can also score in bunches, which will help the Blue Devils beat UConn. This is a winning combination for Duke, so UConn is nothing to worry about.
Meet the Pittsburgh Panthers
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The Panthers backcourt consists of Ashton Gibbs and Brad Wanamaker. Gibbs can hit from anywhere on the floor, and Wanamaker knows what to do to help his teammates out, leading the team in assists. Forward Gilbert Brown, like Gibbs, is a sharpshooter who can knock down shots from anywhere.
Pitt’s defense is pretty darn good too, holding opponents to less than 61 points per game, which is very impressive considering they play in the Big East.
Pitt is one of the best teams in the nation, and their No. 1 seed is well deserved. Everyone is underestimating the Panthers because they lost to a hot Connecticut team led by Kemba Walker on a buzzer-beater, but they are still a great team.
Pitt does not have any truly glaring weaknesses, but running into another hot team like they did in the Big East tournament could cause problems (but that’s true for any team).
Pitt Challenge No. 1: Utah State Aggies
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Now, I know what you’re thinking, but this is not a joke. This Utah State team is a No. 12 seed, and they could make a run into the Sweet 16 and meet Pittsburgh.
The Aggies could be Cinderella. This is a veteran group that's stingy on defense, doesn't allow second-chance points and features a point guard, Brockeith Pane, who can break down the opposition, and a tough big in Tai Wesley. The Aggies aren't super athletes, but they're really good. Utah State won at Saint Mary’s by 10, and they are a strong team in general.
Utah State has Kansas State in the first round, and the 30-3 Aggies are favorites according to ESPN Insider. If the upset happens in the Wisconsin-Belmont game (as I fully expect it will), then Utah State will play No. 13 seed Belmont to go to the Sweet 16. Utah State is a much better team than Belmont, even if they aren’t as hot right now, and they will have a date with Pitt.
Utah State will be the first big test for Pittsburgh, and this could be an upset in the making.
Pitt Challenge No. 2: St. John’s Red Storm
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The Johnnies are a team led by 10 seniors, and they are definitely a potential team to make a deep run. They have beat Duke, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Connecticut and PITTSBURGH. The only question surrounding the Red Storm is whether or not they can win away from home.
If these two teams meet up again, that would be in the Elite Eight, which means that the Johnnies proved they can win on the road. If St. John’s can take its game in MSG and bring it to the tournament, they could be deadly.
The odds of the two teams meeting up is small, but St. John’s should still be the team that Pitt fears most, since it has already lost to the Red Storm.
NOT the BYU Cougars
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The Cougars' interior game and overall depth took a major hit when Brandon Davies was suspended. But they've still got Jimmer Fredette, the nation's leading scorer, to carry the load with Jackson Emery as a dependable second option. In close games, BYU makes its free throws.
Obviously the way to shut down BYU is to shut down Jimmer Fredette. Now that the Cougars have lost their inside presence, they are pretty much a one-man show.
Pittsburgh will have no trouble stopping Jimmer at all. Pitt’s defense is very good, and the Panthers can go to a bow-an-one to stop Fredette from scoring, and force his teammates to do the work instead.
If these two teams hook up, it will be in the Elite Eight, and the Panthers would almost be guaranteed a Final Four spot.
Meet the Kansas Jayhawks
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This is a big team with a chip on its shoulder after 2010's early exit. The Morris twins are absolutely insane, and when Tyrel Reed hits threes, forget it. The Jayhawks are fast, deep, can score at will and can adjust to game conditions.
If anyone is going to beat these guys they are going to have to force turnovers. One of their few weaknesses is sloppy ball-handling at times, and if it comes down to the wire the Jayhawks aren’t too good from the line.
The Jayhawks are favorites to make it to Houston this year (again), but they will run into a few obstacles on the way.
Kansas Challenge No. 1: Louisville Cardinals
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First up to challenge these guys, the Louisville Cardinals. The Cards are a No. 4 seed in the tournament, and are looking to return to the Final Four.
The Cards are a good team, led by coach Rick Pitino. Like most Pitino teams, this team loves to shoot threes. Preston Knowles and Kyle Kuric supplying the deep bombs, and the inside presence of Terrence Jennings will elevate this unit into the second week of tournament play.
Louisville’s threes could go off and they could play very well against Kansas. If Louisville hits its threes, and Tyrel Reed doesn’t, the game is in Louisville’s hands. Because the team is more balanced than just three-point shooters galore, the Cardinals could very well find open looks and drain them. Look for Louisville to challenge Kansas in the Sweet 16.
Kansas Challenge No. 2: Purdue Boilermakers
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Matt Painter's crew is led by a pair of legitimate stars, JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore, who complement each other perfectly. In addition, point guard Lewis Jackson really came on during Big Ten play, helping Purdue win the turnover battle in nearly every game.
As I have previously said, it is the turnovers that hurt Kansas the most, and LewJack could have a field day with them. If he does this, then Kansas is in trouble. Look for Johnson and Moore to outplay the Morris brothers down low, and for Jackson to force enough turnovers for Bill Self to shout himself hoarse.
NOT the Notre Dame Fighting Irish
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The Fighting Irish are the No. 2 seed in the South, but they pose no threat to Kansas.
Sure, Ben Hansbrough and Tim Abromaitis lead a senior-heavy team, and those two can score in bunches, but they cannot force turnovers. Notre Dame has failed to force TOs in its closer games, and the Irish have lost most of their games by slim margins because of it.
The way to beat Kansas is to disrupt the guards and force TOs, but since ND can’t do that at all, the Morris Brothers and Kansas will have no troubles with them. If these two meet up it will be in the Elite Eight; and Kansas will be headed to Houston for sure.
Meet the Ohio State Buckeyes
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Save the best for last, right?
The Buckeyes are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament, and are obviously early favorites to win it all.
The Buckeyes have very few flaws. Not only are they among the nation's leaders in three-point percentage, they've got one of the top interior players in freshman Jared Sullinger. Limiting transition opportunities is the best way to beat them.
Limiting transitional opportunities is a tough task though against the Buckeyes. If you can’t limit their transition then you definitely need to hit your threes and work the ball to get open. Turnovers are killers in games against the Buckeyes.
OSU Challenge No. 1: Kentucky Wildcats
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The Wildcats are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the nation, led by Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb and junior Darius Miller. While the team is still young, they can catch fire at any moment, including against OSU.
Kentucky has beaten Louisville on the road by 15. It beat Notre Dame by 14 at home and has won two of three against Florida. Kentucky has proven that it can beat the best of the best, and the Wildcats are definitely legit contenders to make the Final Four.
If OSU somehow overlooks UK, or doesn’t take its freshmen seriously, the Buckeyes will lose for sure. This game will be very telling about whether Ohio State is legit or not.
OSU Challenge No. 2: Syracuse Orange
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This Syracuse team is incredibly balanced, and is essentially the same team as OSU. Scoop Jardine and Brandon Triche get the offense running, but the Orange truly excel on the defensive end of things. Rick Jackson rebounds and blocks shots with the best in the nation. The only flaw for the Orange is their free-throw shooting.
Both of the teams have big men down low. Both teams have good guard play. Both teams are seeking the Final Four. This potential game will come down to which team hurts themselves more. Whoever wins the turnover margin, wins the game.
If these two teams meet up in the Elite Eight, nothing is guaranteed.
NOT the North Carolina Tar Heels
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Why wouldn’t you fear the No. 2 team in the region? The Tar Heels are one of the hottest teams in the nation now that Marshall has become their point guard, but they struggled mightily in the ACC tournament.
I watched the UNC games as much as I could, and the Tar Heels went down by double digits in the first half, and had to dig themselves out of holes. When I watched them I did not see correctable problems with their game, which leads me to consider them a non-threat. I cannot even see UNC making it to the Elite Eight to play Ohio State.
If by some miracle UNC makes it to the Elite Eight, then they will still be outplayed. UNC cannot compete with Ohio State down low, their guard play is not the same, and playing their transitional game actually helps OSU more than UNC. No way is UNC a threat to OSU.
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