College Football 2011 Predictions: Projecting Bowl Games for Preseason Top 25
How great is college football?
Well, it’s so fantastic that, even as we participate in the sacred annual rite of bracket-ology, studiously filling out our round ball grids, considering tough eight vs. nine seed matchups, we still retain a place in our hearts and minds for college football.
Yes, March Madness is indeed a wonderful time of the year, but, even amid all the excitement of orange colored balls going into nets, we can and will still obsess about the greatest of all team sports, collegiate football.
Therefore friends, let us consider a provocative little topic: Where will each of the preseason Top 25 college football teams spend their 2011-12 postseasons?
Will they punch their tickets (and open their bank accounts) for the 2012 BCS? Will they seize a bid to an upper crust non-BCS bowl, or will they fall short of their lofty goals and go bowling at a less savory venue?
The following slideshow boldly predicts the postseason destination for each preseason Top 25 program (ESPN’s early preseason Top 25) beginning with No. 25 and concluding with No. 1.
25. Mississippi State
1 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Cotton Bowl
The Bulldogs return seven starters to both sides of the ball in 2011 from a team that went 9-4 in 2010.
Mississippi State will have to deal with the loss of defensive coordinator Manny Diaz to Texas, a good chunk of their linebacker corps and two great linemen (one on each side of the ball).
Beyond all the pluses and minuses going into next season, the Bulldogs will be forced to, once again, face the nasty fact that they play in the SEC West, which has to be considered among the toughest divisions in all of college football.
The good news is that Mississippi State faces National Championship contenders LSU and Alabama at home in Starkville, winning one of those two contests could change everything for the Bulldogs.
24. Nebraska
2 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Insight Bowl
Of all the conference swapping this summer, Nebraska’s move from the Big 12 to the Big 10 is tops in terms of interest and intrigue.
Win or lose, the Cornhuskers 2011 campaign will be among the most interesting story lines of the upcoming season.
Even with a new set of travel plans and opponents, the Cornhuskers will still have to deal with a passing offense that never got underway (ranked No. 113 overall) and a stellar rushing game (No. 9) which lost its biggest contributor in Roy Helu, Jr.
Overall, Nebraska returns six offensive and seven defensive starters from their 10-4 team in 2010, and, even if they had stayed put in the Big 12, “How good is Nebraska?” questions would have swirled across the open plains.
Will Bo Pelini explode, implode or be a calmer, gentler sideline stalker?
Is Taylor Martinez the real deal or will he fizzle out just as quickly as he set Nebraska football burning last season?
Can the Nebraska “D” (minus three members of its secondary) make a Top 10 defensive repeat in 2011?
Stay tuned to the Big Ten Network to find out.
23. Arizona State
3 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Alamo Bowl
Despite their inclusion at the top of nearly everyone’s “sleeper” list for 2011, the Sun Devils still don’t seem to jump off the page upon closer review.
Yes, they return almost everyone from the 2010, 6-6 squad, yes, they landed in the easier of the two Pac-12 divisions (they are in the South with non-bowl eligible USC, Arizona, Utah, UCLA and Colorado) and yes, their quarterback is playing more consistently.
But, will a .500 team in 2010 in a good conference (a super duper conference now) really turn the corner and save their coach's job in 2011?
We will know a lot more on evening Friday, September 9 when Missouri visits the desert to face the Sun Devils in Tempe.
This game may be lost in the literal heap of good non-conference match-ups early in 2011, but don’t forget to watch the ASU vs. Mizzou contest for what might set the tone for two really good football teams with a few unknowns.
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22. Virginia Tech
4 of 25
Projected Record: 11-2
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech proved that losing two early games (including one to an FCS team) need not end a season prematurely.
The 11-3 Hokies from 2010 return six offensive and seven defensive starters in 2011, and are faced with replacing most of their offensive skill players on a team that ranked No. 21 overall in scoring.
Despite the huge loses offensively, Frank Beamer has lots to work with talent-wise, and the 2011 schedule is actually very friendly and sets up well for his young team.
Non-conference games against Appalachian State, East Carolina, Arkansas State and Marshall are complemented by the fact that Clemson and Miami (FL) both visit the Hokies at home.
If Virginia Tech can be successful at playing fierce defense while answering its offensive questions, it should be in a position to capture the ACC Coastal Division. However, it may fall short to Florida State in the ACC Championship.
If Florida State goes completely unscathed and makes a run at the BCS title, Virginia Tech finds itself back in the Orange Bowl.
21. Missouri
5 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Alamo Bowl
At least on some level, perhaps in the confines of therapy, Missouri fans must be thinking “Oh, if Blaine Gabbert had only stayed in Columbia for one more precious season...”
With the exception of Gabbert, the Tigers are stacked on offense coming into 2011 and return ten starters from the 2010 squad. Had he of stayed, they may have been unstoppable.
The defense definitely has question marks to answer, especially in the secondary, where the Tigers will contend again with a Big 12 schedule chocked full of pass-happy foes.
The Tigers will be tested early with a road trip to Tempe to face the rising Sun Devil nation, and then two weeks later, will travel to Norman to face the Sooners, who are virtually invincible at home.
Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech are all home games, but Missouri will have to travel to College Station to face the Aggies.
20. Florida
6 of 25
Projected Record: 8-4
Projected Bowl Bid: Outback Bowl
Another wildly interesting 2011 story line will be the black-haired Will Muschamp and his first-ever edition of the Florida Gators.
It’s Muschamp and Charlie Weis taking over at the Swamp where we know everyone will be talented, fast and well-groomed for success.
The Gators return eight offensive and five defensive starters from their 2010, 8-5 squad. However, they must deal with loss of four starting defensive lineman from a unit that allowed only 21.3 points per game last season (definitely a high watermark for a team that otherwise was fairly disappointing).
Florida’s early schedule sets up well for change and transition with the first three games at home followed by a road trip to Kentucky.
After that, things become dicey with the Crimson Tide visiting on October 1 followed immediately by a road trip to Baton Rouge, a visit to Auburn and then a late season trip to South Carolina.
The closing game vs. Florida State in the Swamp might decide who goes to the BCS title game, but it will most likely be the Seminoles that will be a part of the big equation.
The Gators might have to wait until at least 2012 to order the whole enchilada platter.
19. Texas
7 of 25
Projected Record: 8-4
Projected Bowl Bid: Texas Bowl
It seems pretty safe to assume that the Longhorns will be better in 2011 than they were in 2010, but what does that really mean?
For a program that is stacked with talent and has money, power and tradition oozing out of every crevice, 5-7 is almost unthinkable.
So, what happens in 2011?
Texas, minus most of their coaching staff, returns seven starters to both sides of the ball and have a Top Five recruiting class to complement the stellar athletes already on the roster.
Even with the addition of some impressive replacements at both coordinator positions, the Longhorns still have to play and win ball games against a fairly tough set of opponents (vs. BYU, at UCLA, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, at Missouri, and at Texas A&M).
Is entitlement over at Texas, or will the Longhorns continue to think they will win just because, well, they are the Longhorns?
Well, I thought that would happen every single week last year and it never did.
Regardless, the Texas Longhorns seem destined, not entitled, to be bowl-eligible in 2011.
18. Georgia
8 of 25
Projected Record: 7-5
Projected Bowl Bid: Gator Bowl
Can the Bulldogs 2011 recruiting successes be immediately transformed into on-field success?
Can a fairly agreeable schedule of games (at least by SEC standards) equal improvement over a 6-7 finish in 2010?
Can QB Aaron Murray improve enough to lead to Bulldogs without WR A.J. Green between the hedges?
The very first game of the season might prove a “tell all”, or at least begin to answer some of these burning questions for Bulldog fans when Georgia travels to Atlanta to face the 2011 edition of “Are they for real?” Boise State.
From there, even though the Bulldogs only have four true road games, 2011 may be more of a struggle than it looks like on paper.
If Georgia can manage to give Mark Richt another go in 2012, more serious improvement and postseason rewards may certainly be on the cards.
17. Auburn
9 of 25
Projected Record: 7-5
Projected Bowl Bid: BBVA Compass Bowl
The stars all aligned perfectly for Auburn to make a run at the BCS title in 2010. Luckily for Tiger fans, their team executed, won some huge games and ended the season holding the coveted crystal football aloft.
The stars do not seem to be aligned for any such a run in 2011 when the defending champs only return four starters on each side of the ball.
Not only is QB Cam Newton gone, but so are the offensive line and a long, heart-breaking list of talented defenders.
Auburn will go on the road and visit Clemson, South Carolina, Arkansas and LSU this season before wrapping things up against an Alabama team who will come to town with a huge laundry list of reasons to wreak revenge-filled havoc on the defending champs.
16. Michigan State
10 of 25
Projected Record: 8-4
Projected Bowl Bid: Outback Bowl
Unfortunately, the Spartans managed to put a fairly sizable damper on a highly successful 11-2, 2010 season with an ugly 48-7 thumping at the hands of an angry Alabama team in the Capital One Bowl.
The Spartans return seven offensive and six defensive starters in 2011 including QB Kirk Cousins but not former stellar linebackers in Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.
Repeating the magical run in 2010 may be made even more difficult with a schedule that includes road trips to South Bend, Indiana; Columbus, Ohio; Lincoln, Nebraska and Ames, Iowa.
Regardless, Mark Dantonio continues to field scrappy Spartan squads who will be in a position to knock off opponents when they least expected it.
The only surprise is that we may be surprised when it happens...again.
15. South Carolina
11 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Capital One Bowl
The 9-5 defending SEC East Champs return seven offensive and six defensive starters to the 2011 squad and also has the distinctive honor of landing this year’s No. 1 recruit Jadeveon Clowney.
Though the skill positions retain much of their firepower, questions on the line on both sides of the ball could prove a big stumbling block for the 2011 Gamecocks.
South Carolina makes an early road trip to Georgia and then travels to Mississippi State and Arkansas later in the season. Auburn and Clemson both are home games in 2011.
If the Gamecocks can beat the Gators at home on November 12, they could possibly repeat as SEC Eastern Division Champions and will more than likely face either LSU or Alabama in the title game.
Ultimately, South Carolina may fall just short of the elusive BCS bid again by virtue of being the third-best team in the SEC.
14. Notre Dame
12 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Champs Sports Bowl
ESPN says they are for real.
Las Vegas says they are for real.
And, of course, NBC hopes they are for real.
But, is Notre Dame really “for real” in 2011?
The 2010, 8-5 Irish return ten offensive and nine defensive starters to the 2011 squad and have a Top 10 recruiting class to deepen the trenches.
That all sounds pretty promising until you stop to consider that the Irish will play nine opponents in 2011 that were bowl bound in 2010 (not including bowl-banned USC who went 8-5 last season).
Highlights of the upcoming slate are road trips to Michigan and Stanford with the Irish hosting USF, Michigan State, USC and a good Maryland team in South Bend.
Notre Dame will continue to move forward in 2011, but a BCS bid seems a bit of a stretch. That is, unless you are NBC, who already has put in a bid for the BCS title game, just in case.
13. Wisconsin
13 of 25
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS Orange Bowl
Wisconsin fell just short (10 points to be exact) of making the BCS title game in 2010 and ultimately went on to finish their season with a close loss to a great TCU team in the Rose Bowl.
The 11-2 Badgers return five offensive and six defensive starters in 2011 but will have to replace QB Scott Tolzien, key offensive lineman and a hefty portion of their linebacking corps.
But, returning are the dynamic duo of Montee Ball and James White who combined to lead Wisconsin to a No. 12 ranking in rushing yards per game last year (vs. a No. 75 ranking in passing yards).
The Badgers face a tough early season test vs. Oregon State and have daunting back-to-back midseason road trips to Michigan State and then Ohio State.
Either a regular season conference defeat or a loss in the first ever Big 10 championship game will hold the Badgers out of the Rose Bowl and ultimately the BCS title game.
12. Texas A&M
14 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Cotton Bowl
The Aggie faithful were cautiously “hopeful” going into 2010 and, despite an ugly loss to LSU in the Cotton Bowl, the 2011 forecast in College Station, Texas calls for nothing short of “conference title wishes and BCS dreams.”
The 9-4 Texas A&M returns ten offensive and eight defensive starters to a squad that was well-balanced in 2010. Von Miller and Michael Hodges, a tandem that held together the new “wrecking crew” limiting opposing offenses to 21.9 points per game, will be sorely missed.
The Aggies have a somewhat favorable schedule which includes a September 24 visit from Oklahoma State and an October 1 game vs. Arkansas at Cowboy Stadium in Arlington.
If the Aggies can avoid the slow start they suffered through in 2010, a November 5 visit to Norman to face Oklahoma could have a bunch to say about who is BCS-worthy and who isn’t.
But, don’t count out the finale vs. the Longhorns, who, regardless of their actual performance in 2011, would love to come to College Station and thwart the dreams of crystal pigskin-hypnotized, horn sawing-off-obsessed Aggie nation.
11. Arkansas
15 of 25
Projected Record: 8-4
Projected Bowl Bid: Chick-fil-A Bowl
The Razorbacks return six offensive and seven defensive starters from a squad that enjoyed a 10-3 finish in 2010 but will be without QB Ryan Mallett and three starters on offensive line.
On the plus side, Arkansas will welcome back tailback Knile Davis, most of its receiving corps and much of a defensive that allowed only 23.4 points per game in 2010.
Really, Arkansas fans have much to look forward to in 2011 with the exception of being a member of the SEC West and playing division foes Alabama and LSU on the road.
Add in a trip to Arlington, Texas to face a good Texas A&M team and home games vs. South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State (at Little Rock), and it's quick to understand that every win will be hard-earned in 2011.
10. Oklahoma State
16 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Insight Bowl
The biggest questions regarding Oklahoma State in 2010 seem to be regarding the defense who returns six starters to a squad that ranked No. 61 in scoring.
Even though the defensive issues are the real deal, two offensive questions loom for a team that finished last season No. 2 in passing yards, No. 36 in rushing yards and No. 3 overall in scoring.
First, how much will the departure of Kendall Hunter and his 1,548 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns hurt the Cowboys?
Secondly, and maybe most importantly, how much impact will the loss of offensive coordinator Dana Holgorson have? Yes, most of the players return, but how much will the departure of the offensive architect affect the team's production in 2011?
The Cowboys have an early season test vs. Arizona in Stillwater, travel to face a good Tulsa team on the road and then open up a conference slate that includes visits to College Station, Austin and Lubbock.
9. TCU
17 of 25
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Bowl Bid: Poinsettia Bowl
The Horned Frogs were, well, one conference affiliation from a shot at the national title in 2010.
The 2011 Frogs return only five starters to each side of the ball, losing QB Andy Dalton, his two favorite targets and a chunk of the offensive line.
But back again is RB Ed Wesley who led TCU with 1078 yards and 11 touchdowns on their way to being ranked No. 10 in rushing yards (vs. only No. 53 in passing yards).
Though many analysts will have the Horned Frogs chances to repeat as Mountain West Champs coming down to a titillating November 12 visit to Boise State’s noxious turf, let’s not be hasty and forget about a meeting with BYU in Arlington, Texas scheduled for October 28.
In a battle of the acronyms, the newly-independent Cougars could spoil the much anticipated showdown in the football capital of Idaho.
8. Boise State
18 of 25
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Bowl Bid: Las Vegas Bowl
Will 2011 finally be the year we stop talking about whether Boise State “belongs” among the elite teams in college football and move on to trying to find a way to make them an AQ school?
Probably not.
Why?
Because, as long as there is an SEC and there is a Mountain West, someone will argue that the path to winning it all can’t be a cake walk for some and a bloody, arduous and daunting struggle for others.
And they would be right.
The 2011 Boise State Broncos (now in the Mountain West conference) return seven starters to each side of the ball. The biggest losses are receivers Austin Pettit and Titus Young and two starting safeties while the ageless QB Kellen Moore returns for his senior season.
The Broncos open up with an absolutely enthralling game vs. Georgia in Atlanta (Will this shut everyone up? Again, see above...it won't) and then have some intriguing matchups including playing host to a good Tulsa team followed by Nevada, Air Force and, of course, TCU (all on the blue turf).
A win over TCU could seal their first ever Mountain West crown, but a slip-up early against Georgia, or possibly (don’t laugh) Air Force, keeps the Broncos out of the BCS in 2011.
7. Stanford
19 of 25
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS Fiesta Bowl
Coming off a thrilling 12-1 campaign in 2010, the Stanford Cardinal will be without head coach Jim Harbaugh, key receivers and some of the offensive line. But back for 2011 will be QB Andrew Luck and five offensive and six defensive starters.
Add in the fact that Stanford has a schedule with seven home games, and 2011 looks promising for the Cardinal faithful.
The only road trips for Luck & Co. this coming season will be early back-to-back visits to Duke and Arizona, a midseason journey to Washington State and then a late October trip south to face USC.
The first ever Pac-12 North division crown may come down to a November 12 visit to Stanford by the Oregon Ducks.
6. Ohio State
20 of 25
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Bowl Bid: Capital One Bowl
Despite only returning four starters to each side of the ball, and the “Ohio State Five” missing the first five games of 2011, the Buckeyes remain favorites to win the new Big 10 and garner yet another BCS bid.
Though the schedule isn’t completely overwhelming, OSU will have to deal with a Week 3 trip to Miami (FL) followed by hosting Colorado and Michigan State at home in Weeks 4 and 5, all without Terrell Pryor and friends.
Road trips to Nebraska and Ann Arbor are balanced by hosting Wisconsin and Penn State in Columbus.
The remaining question regarding Ohio State football is obviously how the NCAA will handle Jim Tressel, who will no doubt receive sanctions for not disclosing his prior knowledge of players receiving improper benefits.
This pending issue could put a serious kink in the Buckeye’s 2011 plans, but, until the NCAA acts, it seems most prudent to assume the small two-game suspension is all we can count on for now.
5. Oregon
21 of 25
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS Rose Bowl
The 2010 Ducks fell just short of claiming the biggest prize in college football and will return seven offensive and five defensive starters to try and take home the championship hardware in 2011.
The biggest questions for the Ducks this season will be replacing five starters on the defensive front seven, three offensive linemen and their top two receivers.
Add to these losses rumors of an NCAA investigation into recruiting, and it is easy to see that, though the Ducks will indeed be fast and score lots of points, there are simply no guarantees.
The Ducks open up their season with a game that quite literally will make or break someone’s title hopes: Oregon vs. preseason No. 4 LSU in Arlington, Texas.
If they survive the meeting with LSU, the Ducks will have road trips to Arizona, Colorado, Washington and Stanford to look forward to while they host USC, Arizona State and Oregon State at home in Eugene.
If they can knock off Stanford, Oregon may have the inside track to winning a first ever Pac-12 North title and possibly another conference crown.
4. LSU
22 of 25
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS Sugar Bowl
Nine offensive and seven defensive starters are set to return to Baton Rouge for an LSU squad that finished 2010 11-2 including a stomping of Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl.
Key losses include CB Patrick Peterson and TB Stevan Ridley, both to the NFL. Ridley’s loss is especially painful given he was the Tigers’ leading rusher in 2010 with 1,147 yards and 15 touchdowns leading LSU to a No. 27 ranked rushing attack (vs. No. 107 in passing yards).
Will Zach Mettenberger be the answer to the Tigers' quarterback woes, and can Les Miles work enough Cajun voodoo to take LSU back to the BCS?
Major road blocks are the season opener in Arlington vs. Oregon, a Week 3 visit to Mississippi State followed by a road trip to West Virginia and then, of course, a November 5 trip to Tuscaloosa to face the Crimson Tide.
Oh yeah, don’t forget about all those “other” SEC teams the Tigers will have to beat to make it to the top (Florida, Auburn and Arkansas just to name a few).
If you make it out of the SEC West alive, you deserve to go to the BCS.
3. Florida State
23 of 25
Projected Record: 12-0
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS National Championship
Could 2011 be the year that the ACC finally returns a team to the BCS national championship?
Well, a September 17 meeting between Florida State and Oklahoma might have a lot to say about the final answer to that question, and the good news for ACC fans is that the game is NOT in Norman, Oklahoma.
Florida State returns eight starters to each side of the ball and with the addition of the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2011. FSU looks primed to make a serious move upwards in Jimbo Fisher’s second season.
Though the remainder of the schedule might look favorable for the loaded Seminoles, as trips to Clemson and Florida as well as visits to Tallahassee from underrated Maryland, North Carolina State and, of course, in-state rival Miami are no picnic.
All disclaimers aside, Florida State is in a great position to make a serious run at a national title. Really, they just have to avenge an ugly 47-17 stomping at the hands of Oklahoma to get the ball rolling.
2. Alabama
24 of 25
Projected Record: 12-0
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS National Championship
The 2010, 10-3 Crimson Tide return seven offensive and ten defensive starters to a squad that looked on the verge of being the best team in the country last season.
Alabama looks ready to reload all over the field and, if they can answer their question marks at quarterback, they are one ugly schedule away from an SEC crown, BCS bid and possibly more.
Road trips include a Week 2 visit to Penn State, a trip to Florida to face the Gators and perilous journeys to Mississippi State and Auburn. The home games include Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU on November 5.
The Crimson Tide looked hungry all throughout 2010 and peaked with their 49-7 shellacking of Michigan State in a lopsided Capital One Bowl.
If they play with the same kind of intensity (minus the mistakes) they displayed in 2011, Nick Saban & Co. have an excellent opportunity to keep the crystal football in the state of Alabama for yet another year.
1. Oklahoma
25 of 25
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Bowl Bid: BCS Fiesta Bowl
No surprises at the top of the heap in any preseason list, as the 12-2, 2010 Oklahoma Sooners return nine offensive and eight defensive starters in 2011.
The biggest question is how to replace RB DeMarco Murray who led the team with 1,214 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Back are QB Landry Jones and WR Ryan Broyles who should hook up for an obscene number of yards.
The season could start and finish early with a September 17 visit to Tallahassee to face Florida State when we will find out how good Oklahoma really is.
We know the Sooners can win at home, but will they win the big ones on the road?
The season ends with Oklahoma visiting neighbor Oklahoma State in Stillwater; this could wind up to be the game of the century in the Sooner State.
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