March Madness 2011 Predictions: Final Four Odds for Every Team in West Region
The wild, wild West is one of the regions to watch this March. The No. 1 seed Duke Blue Devils are considered favorites, but are they really the best team?
The region also consists of the San Diego State Aztecs, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns and a few other surprises who could make runs.
The tournament is always difficult to call, but this is the general breakdown of every team in the West and its potential to make it to the Final Four. Which teams will be in Anaheim this month, and who will make it to the fabled Final Four in Houston?
The following 16 slides discuss the odds for all 16 teams in the West. Without further ado, here they are.
16. No. 16 Hampton Pirates
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As we all know, a No. 16 seed has never beaten a No. 1 seed, and the Hampton Pirates are not going to be the first to do it.
Hampton has the Duke Blue Devils in the first round, and Duke is definitely going to give it problems. Duke is a small team in comparison to other top teams, but its guard play more than makes up for it.
Duke has Player of the Year candidate Nolan Smith bringing the ball up. Smith can go for 30 on any given night, or he can go for 10 assists. Smith is able to score and create, which gives the Blue Devils a huge advantage.
The Pirates have next to no odds to win the West.
Odds to Win: Very Low
15. No. 15 Northern Colorado Bears
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If the Bears win, it would be an upset of epic proportions.
The Bears have a good guard in Devon Beitzel, and they can make shots if left open, but I doubt that they will be left open much. The Bears are playing San Diego State in the first round. SDSU is a fierce team led by Kawhi Leonard and James Rahon down in the paint.
SDSU’s defense will halt the Bears’ shooters, and they mop up on the glass with their size. Northern Colorado won’t win one game—four is absolutely insane. Need I say more?
Odds to Win: Very Low
14. No. 14 Bucknell Bison
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Bucknell has a very tough matchup against the Connecticut Huskies in the first round. The Bison will have trouble containing POY favorite Kemba Walker, and even if they do, Walker can create for others.
The Huskies won five straight to win the Big East tournament and are looking fierce. The Bison are another first-round loser. If by some miracle they do beat UConn, they will most likely have to play Cincinnati, SDSU and Duke to win the West. I would bet anything that they don’t make it to the Final Four.
Odds to Win: Very Low
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13. No. 12 Memphis Tigers
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The Memphis Tigers were Final Four material a few years ago with John Calipari, but a lot has changed since then. While No. 12 seeds seem to shock us every year, these Tigers will not.
Memphis faces a first-round game against Arizona and its incredible forward Derrick Williams. Sure, the Wildcats aren’t the best team in the field of 68, but they will be able to handle the freshman-oriented Tigers.
There is only about a one in four chance that the Tigers win one game, and there is almost no shot for them to win four.
Odds to Win: Low
12. No. 11 Missouri Tigers
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The Missouri Tigers have a date with the Cincinnati Bearcats in the first round. Cincy is a No. 6 seed that has played good teams all year in the Big East.
Missouri plays fast, which is a challenge for a lot of teams, but it struggles mightily on the glass. This works out well for Cincy because it has a great half-court offense, and the Bearcats are ferocious on the boards.
Missouri will have a tough time beating Cincy, but even if it does, its only prize will be playing Kemba Walker. I can’t see Missouri getting to the Sweet 16 any way this goes down. Sorry Tigers.
Odds to Win: Low
11. No. 8 Michigan Wolverines
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The Wolverines are a very young team with no seniors, and they struggle on the boards. While they have good freshmen and a go-to guy in Tim Hardaway Jr., they are just too small to do well.
Their very first game comes against a big Tennessee team that could give them problems. Even if they do surprise us and beat Tennessee (I say surprise because they cannot rebound at all), they will then play a team that plays more of their style in Duke.
Duke not only has Michigan’s style, it does it better. Duke is a No. 1 seed while Michigan is a No. 8, and if they play the same style, there is no question who is better and who will win.
Odds to Win: Low
10. No. 7 Temple Owls
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While the Owls have a No. 7 seed, they rely too heavily on defense to win more than a game or two.
The Owls have a first-round game with Penn State, another defensively-oriented team. The difference between these two schools is the fact that PSU has Talor Battle, a go-to scorer who will lead the Nittany Lions over the Owls.
Temple just does not have a big enough scoring threat to make a run into the tournament, and its defense can only get them so far.
Odds to Win: Low
9. No. 13 Oakland Golden Grizzlies
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Oakland has NBA talent in center Keith Benson, and he alone could help them to victory. Benson is a big guy who can score and play defense. Oakland’s first matchup is against a tough Texas team. Texas has its own big guy in Tristan Thompson, and it could be a tough matchup.
Texas has had some troubles at the free throw line and on defense recently, so it’s tough to say which team will show up, but it’s hard to say that a No. 13 seed will make the Final Four. Even if it does beat the Longhorns, it will have a tough matchup in Arizona, then Duke and then either SDSU or UConn. This just isn’t Oakland’s year.
Odds to Win: Low
8. No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions
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Penn State is a defensive-minded team, and we saw that against Wisconsin in a game that had a final score of 36-33. But if Penn State is almost the same as Temple, why is it higher? The answer is Talor Battle.
Battle is a legitimate scorer and has led PSU in most of its wins. Unlike Temple, PSU can score when it needs to, and this scoring (which was not accurately depicted in the Wisconsin game) is what will set it apart. Penn State should upset Temple and then go on to challenge whoever it plays.
Odds to Win: Medium/Low
7. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers
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The Vols are led by Bruce Pearl, and with a coach like that, they could be a tough out. Tennessee is a big team with Brian Williams and Tobias Harris down low, and Scotty Hopson is their athletic player.
Tennessee has a relatively easy matchup in the first round against Michigan because its size will let it bully the Wolverines around. After that, it will play a small Duke team. As a fan of Duke I can say that Tennessee worries me. Duke struggles against big guys, and this could be a big upset.
After Duke, Tennessee would probably play either Arizona or Texas, both of whom have big guys who can shut down the Vols and more athleticism. I could see Tennessee in the Sweet 16, but after that it is a very big question. Remember though, these guys are a No. 9 seed for a reason.
Odds to Win: Medium
6. No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats
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Cincinnati is a good team that can play fierce defense and rebounds with the best teams in the nation, but it is led by freshman guard Sean Kilpatrick, who has yet to see real Madness. Cincy is a good team overall, but if it does get past Mizzou in the first game, it will be rewarded only by a matchup with Kemba Walker and Connecticut, who will be a tough test for the Bearcats.
If they do beat UConn, they will likely have to deal with SDSU just to get to the Elite Eight, which is a true struggle. The Bearcats could make the Sweet 16, but any further is pushing it.
Odds to Win: Medium
5. No. 4 Texas Longhorns
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The Longhorns were considered a true contender at one point, but teams started zoning them and forcing jump shots while attacking Jordan Hamilton on defense. This defensive strategy worked well, and teams across the nation took notice. If the Longhorns have to deal with this against Oakland, Arizona or Duke, they will be shut down.
However, Tristan Thompson is beastly inside, and Texas could be dangerous if it gets its defensive swagger back. Texas was a great defensive team, and if it turns around its recent woes, it could be dangerous.
Unfortunately for Texas, there are a lot of “ifs” surrounding their potential to win the West, and I don’t see all of the pieces falling into place this year.
Odds to Win: Medium
4. No. 5 Arizona Wildcats
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Arizona is a good team led by forward Derrick Williams. It can beat its first two opponents with its big man, but then it plays Duke. If Arizona plays Duke, it will be a very interesting matchup, and I see Williams breaking out against them.
The thing about Duke is that it can beat you in many ways. While I wouldn’t be shocked to see Arizona in the Elite Eight, I won’t pick them because Duke has too many weapons.
Arizona is a great team, but it has its flaws. The Wildcats are young, and they don’t get it in enough, instead settling for jump shots. I can’t see this as a true winning combination this season, but maybe next.
Odds to Win: Medium/High
3. No. 2 San Diego State Aztecs
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SDSU is a big team led by Kawhi Leonard and James Rahon, and it has a very good top six for its team. SDSU has all the makings of a Final Four team, and it should breeze through its first two games. After those first two they will play Kemba Walker...I mean Connecticut.
SDSU does not have the tools to guard players like Walker and Nolan Smith of Duke. The difference between these two and Jimmer Fredette is the fact that these two are better point guards who can create for the other players on their teams.
If and when SDSU meets a team of the caliber of Duke or UConn or players like Walker and Smith, I can’t see the Aztecs pulling it out. While they are a No. 2 seed for a reason, they need to be on upset alert and try to shut down the opposition fast and throughout the game.
Odds to Win: Medium/High
2. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils
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The Dukies are riding high after they beat rival UNC by 17 for the ACC tournament title. After losing to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, they came back and destroyed them on a neutral court.
Duke has weapons all around in Nolan Smith, Kyle Singler, Seth Curry, Ryan Kelly, the Plumlee brothers, Andre Dawkins and really anyone who comes onto the court.
Smith is their best player, as he can create or score, but Singler can drive well, and the rest of the guys can all score and play defense. The only issue for Duke is inside. The Blue Devils are not big enough to compete with certain teams.
The big story around the Blue Devils now, however, is will point guard Kyrie Irving come back? Duke lost Irving and its initial run and gun plans in the beginning of the season, and it switched to a half-court game. If Irving comes back and meshes instantly, the Blue Devils could return to their preseason No. 1 form—the form that beat Princeton by 37.
The Dukies are a big question, but I don’t see Irving making a huge difference in the tourney, so I have them at No. 2 in the West.
Odds to Win: High
1. No. 3 Connecticut Huskies
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The Huskies made history by winning five straight to steal the Big East title away from some of the best teams in the nation. Led by Kemba Walker, the Huskies are a very tough team to beat. Kemba can score with the best players in the nation, and he can also create for others by driving and dishing.
Connecticut is a team with few flaws, but one of them might be exhaustion. The Huskies can’t be as ready as they were for the Big East tournament, and the question is whether they will be able to last through the testing schedule for the NCAA tournament.
The Huskies are a question mark on a lot of brackets, but they have the makings of a Final Four team. I know that I have them in the championship game, but I won’t say if they win or not. The Huskies are just plain dangerous, and they need to be taken very seriously.
Odds to Win: High
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