Cubs Playoff Rotation Sets up Nicely

          Last Thursday Cubs manager Lou Piniella named his starter for game one of the National League Division Series and his name isn’t Zambrano. Piniella named 17-game winner Ryan Dempster as the starter, which by all accounts is the right decision. Dempster has been the man all year long for the Cubs. Every fifth day Demp has taken the ball and has got the job done nine times out of 10. As a result Dempster has earned the right to pitch in game one.

            Many fans were skeptic when they heard that Dempster was leaving the closers role to return to the starting rotation, but from day one, even before and during spring training Dempster has worked his rear end off to get where he is now. In part it is why the Cubs are where they are at. He has been one of the most consistent pitchers for the Cubs all season.

          The key for success for Dempster in game one is to continue to do what he has done all season long. There is no doubt that if Dempster performs like he has during the season the Cubs will be in good shape during the postseason.

Game two belongs to Carlos Zambrano. Who for all intents and purposes should’ve been the game one starter, but Big Z has become a mystery within himself. From August until now you don’t know which Z is going to show up. It could be good Z, the one who was absolutely filthy in his no-hit bid against the Houston Astros a few weekends ago or it could be bad Z, who loses his cool when something doesn’t go his way. Z was the Cubs ace at one point this year, but he has to earn that back by going out there this postseason and not necessarily throwing a no-no, but at least last longer than 2 2/3rds innings. Z’s key for success in game two is simple, keep his emotions in check.

Easier said than done, right? If big Z can do that he should have no problems. Zambrano’s Achilles heel of this season and for the better part of his career has been his ability to keep his emotions in check. Z’s always had the talent and the ability to be an ace hands down, but when he gets upset and huff’s and puff’s on the mound it really takes away the fact of how special a pitcher he really is. Zambrano himself has even acknowledged his temper tantrums and has said repeatedly in the past he’ll work on controlling his emotions. Well, talk is cheap Carlos. You want to prove to everyone that you deserve to be an ace then go out there in game two and pitch like everyone knows you’re capable of.

Rich Harden will get the nod for game three. When the Brew Crew picked up C.C. Sabathia, the Cubs countered by sending a few low key prospects to Oakland to acquire Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin. Harden has played a pivotal role in the Cubs rotation. When Harden is on he is as dominate as they come. One Major League scout has described Harden’s stuff when he is on and is healthy as untouchable. Hitters have no chance. That is a dead on assessment of Harden’s ability to flat-out dominate on any given night he pitches. When he is on there is nothing the other team can do.

Harden’s keys for success are to keep the walks down along with the pitch count. Generally Harden is a five or six inning pitcher due in large part to his history of injury. If he can keep is his pitch count low, he can easily become a seven or eight inning pitcher, which would setup Piniella’s bullpen nicely.

Ted Lilly may or may not be the starter for game four depending on whether or not Piniella feels like bringing back Dempster on short rest. Lilly has been a nice left-handed addition to this rotation since joining the team during the ’06 offseason.  Lilly avoided the second year drop off that some pitchers experience when switching leagues. Lilly is the second 17-game winner on the Cubs. He is a nice insurance policy in game four in case Z and or Harden faultier in their games. Lilly will eat up innings and keep the bullpen rested. Lilly has been solid in his last several outings. During his most recent outing against the Brewers he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning before surrendering a double. This is the second time this month Lilly his taken a no-no into the seventh inning at Miller Park. The other was against the Astros. 

Lilly’s keys for success are to keep the ball down and avoid giving up the long ball. Lilly has given up 32 home runs to opposing hitters. If Lilly can get his big sweeping curve ball over for strikes the other teams’ hitters are going to have a tough time.  

Once again Jason Marquis is the odd man out. Fortunately for Marquis he will be on the postseason roster. Marquis was left off the last two postseason rosters with the Cubs in ’07 and ’06 with the Cardinals. Interestingly enough since 2000 Marquis has been on a playoff team. He must be doing something right. If the Cubs starters continue to do what they’ve done all year long the Cubs will be playing deep into October.