College Football's Best Teams and Conferences After 5 Weeks

Week 5 saw some truly shocking games: Alabama rocketing into the BCS picture with a destruction of Georgia (31-0 at halftime?), Florida losing in the Swamp to Ole Miss, Michigan taking down Wisconsin, and Navy beating Wake were just some of the results on Saturday. And, of course, there was USC losing to Oregon State. So the BCS dodges a scenario in which three major conferences (Pac-10, SEC, Big 12) have undefeated teams. However, there are several apocalyptic scenarios, including Florida (or LSU, or another potential one-loss team) winning the SEC, and being passed over in favor of an undefeated Penn State team (which wouldn't have beaten a top-15 team, even if it went undefeated).

My Top 25 after Week 5:

1. Alabama (After Week 4: USC)- Oklahoma was up 28-3 at the half on the #24 team in the country. Very impressive, but Alabama was up 31-0 on #3 Georgia at the half. Will the Tide be tested at Tennessee in three weeks, or will the November 8th battle in Baton Rouge be for control of the SEC West?

2. Oklahoma (After Week 4: Georgia) - OU dominated the entire game in a rout of #24 TCU, and is the new AP #1. The Sooners have four (currently) ranked opponents left: Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma State (which probably won't be Top 25 when they play OU, unless the Cowboys upset Mizzou, Texas, or Texas Tech). They also caught several huge breaks last week when USC and Georgia went down. And with Florida's loss, LSU and Alabama are the only SEC teams that would have had a realistic chance at going undefeated in conference - except for the fact that they play each other.

3. LSU (After Week 4: Oklahoma) -Auburn scored 3 points on Mississippi State. LSU scored 34.  Of course, Auburn's defense also held the Bulldogs to a safety, while LSU gave up 24 points. A win is a win in the SEC, though, and the win over Auburn in Week 4 means that if LSU beats Alabama, the Tigers can reach the SEC Championship even with a loss to Georgia or Florida.  Three easy games to end the regular season could help the Tigers get their starters rested for the SEC Championship. However, beating up Troy in mid-November (a makeup game) could look bad to pollsters if LSU has one loss (to Bama) but is still in the National Title hunt. (Ex. Cal-Texas, 2004).

4. Missouri (After Week 4: Florida) - What does a bye week get you? In Mizzou's case, a top-5 ranking. The Tigers should not overlook Nebraska, which gave Virginia Tech a fight. There's also the fact the Missouri is going on year 30 without a win at Nebraska. This should be the year, though, that Mizzou breaks through.

5. Penn State (After Week 4: LSU) - The Nittany Lions reclaim a top-5 spot for the Big 10. But the relatively weak conference (Penn State could easily be the only ranked team at the end of the season) and the recent memories of Ohio State's failures could cost them a shot at the title, even if they run the table.  The win over Oregon State looks pretty good, as does last Saturday's defeat of Illinois.  However, this schedule does not compare favorably to the Big 12 or SEC.

6. Texas (After Week 4: Mizzou) - The Horns have won 52-10 three times already this season. They probably won't win by nearly that much at Colorado, and they definitely won't at Oklahoma the next week.

7. Georgia (After Week 4: Alabama) - Until Alabama shows some sign of being in a position to lose a game (13-3 is their smallest 2nd-quarter lead so far this season), Georgia gets the benefit of the doubt, despite the 31-0 disaster of a first half. However, for National Championship game purposes, the blackout on offense and defense in those first two quarters could hurt the Dawgs with the pollsters.  Georgia does play four ranked teams in five weeks starting 10/14.

8. USC (After Week 4: Wisconsin) - Note to Ohio State and Notre Dame: USC can't tackle very small running that draw exaggerated comparisons to Barry Sanders. The Trojans are now effectively out of the running for the National Championship (unless six teams above them lose), much to the chagrin of every Pac-10 team that thinks it has a chance at second place.
USC effectively abandoned the run in the 4th quarter of the Oregon State game and Mark Sanchez was awful, going 3-8 with a huge interception before the final drive, when USC was down two scores. Look for the Trojans to try and run Oregon out of L.A. with a ground attack and well-timed play-action and screen passes.

9. South Florida (After Week 4: Texas) - What? South Florida in the Top-10? Ahead of Florida? They're one of only a few teams in the country to beat a top-15 team (Kansas) so far. Will they move up? It's much more likely that they lose before another top-10 team is upset. Pittsburgh could play spoiler again, as soon as this weekend.

10. Florida (After Week 4: BYU) - Like USC, a bad loss. However, the Gators are (like USC) a Top-10 team talent-wise. And unlike the Trojans, they still have many opportunities to play and beat ranked teams (LSU, Georgia, and Vandy).

11. BYU (After Week 4: Penn State) - BYU had a bye week. With TCU's loss, the season-ending matchup with Utah is now the only ranked team on the Cougars' schedule.

12. Texas Tech  (After Week 4: Texas Tech) -Texas Tech's best non-conference win was against Nevada. K-State's loss to Louisville means they should be a fairly easy win for Tech, and the Red Raiders should also beat Nebraska (although it could a fiarly close game) and Texas A&M (will not be close). But can Tech survive four ranked teams in a row after that?

13. Auburn (After Week 4: Auburn) - The Tigers stay put after a close win over Tennessee. If their offense can't put these types of games out of reach, it could lead to an upset or two in the tough SEC.  The defense still looks dominant (2.9 yards per attempt for Tennessee- passing).

14. Boise State (After Week 4: Wake Forest) - After Hawai'i's debacle last year, would a Boise State team be invited back to the BCS if it won out? Heck, they might even get to play OU again. Last week was a bye.

15. Vanderbilt (After Week 4: South Florida) -Vandy might not deserve to be ranked this high, but they beat Ole Miss, and Florida didn't. Can the passing game step up if Auburn's run defense steps up?

16. Kansas (After Week 4: Boise State) -Kansas will get its shot at all four of the Big-12's top powers. For now, it has to be content with beating up on Iowa State.

17. Utah (After Week 4: Kansas) - Utah is not USC. Then again, what are the odds of OSU beating two straight ranked teams?

18. Ohio State (After Week 4: Utah) - Terelle Pryor has given OSU life with his running ability (almost 100 yards against Minnesota), and Wisconsin's loss to Michigan gives some hope of a Big Ten title.  A USC-OSU Rose Bowl doesn't look all that unlikely.

19. Oklahoma State (After Week 4: East Carolina) - Win at Washington State doesn't look good now (multiple teams have now hung 60 or more points on Wazzu). However, they are undefeated, and will probably be 5-0 when play at Missouri.

20. Oregon (After Week 4: Vanderbilt) - Clobbering of WSU reignites the offense and raises hopes for the rest of the season. Isn't that what people were saying about Cal before they lost to Maryland? Yes, and USC is no Maryland - they're much better. I have a bad feeling about Saturday's game at the Colosseum. Oregon can blame Oregon State for USC's bad mood (and renewed focus).

21. Virginia Tech  (After Week 4: Clemson) - Tyrod Taylor has given the Virginia Tech offense some life with his running ability (see #18 Ohio State and Terelle Prior, above).

22. Connecticut (After Week 4: Illinois) - Another possibly temporary-ranked team. Why is a team that beat Temple 12-9 in OT even ranked at all? They could start 7-0 if they can survive North Carolina.

23. Wisconsin (After Week 4: Fresno State) - Ugly loss at the Big House. Michigan's quarterback out-gained P.J. Hill.

24. Maryland (After Week 4: Colorado) - Two straight wins against ranked (albeit slightly over-rated) teams. There are still a few chances to gain in the polls if the Terps beat Wake and Virginia Tech. But any chance at a major bowl might have been lost in the Middle Tennessee game.

25. Fresno State (After Week 4: Ohio State) - Decent win over UCLA, and the defense held up in the 4th quarter, but it'll probably take a better effort on both sides of the ball to upset Boise on their own (blue) turf. 

Top 3 Conferences after Week 5:

1. SEC (Previous week: #1)

This week at least, the Big 12 is very close to over-taking the SEC for the best overall conference. The East took a beating with the losses by its top two teams. However, the West alone has three top-15 and 2 top-3 teams.

Projected Conference Standings:

East:

1. Georgia - A loss by any point spread is still a loss, but the Dawgs squandered a big chance to take a divison lead on the Gators before the Game-Formerly-Known-As-The-World's-Largest-Cocktail-Party.

2. Florida - The loss hurts, but a win against Georgia would still get the Gators in the SEC title game (assuming both teams win out otherwise).

3. Vandy

4. Tennessee

5. Kentucky

6. South Carolina

West:

1. Alabama (previously #3) - Bama vaults to the top of the national polls, but can they win their own division? LSU will try to knock Saban's team out of the BCS and the SEC title gam on 11/8.

2. LSU (previously #1)

3. Auburn (previously #2)

4. Mississippi - After coming very close against Wake and Vanderbilt, Ole Miss finally gets a marquee win for Houston Nutt. But they'll still won't finish higher than 4th in their own division. Only the Big-12 South has this kind of depth.

5. Miss. St.

6. Arkansas

SEC game of the week (Week 6): Auburn @ Vandy

Vandy only managed around 200 yards of total offense against Ole Miss, but intercepted the ball four times. Auburn is having offensive problems as well, but allowed only 67 yards passing by Tennessee. Will anyone score in this game? Vandy averages 10 points more per game than Auburn, but the Tigers played very well against LSU, and always seem to play with intensity against ranked opponents.

Auburn 14, @ Vandy 6

2. Big-12 (Previous week: #2)

The Big-12 (unlike the SEC) managed to avoid any huge upsets of its top teams, and still has three of the top six teams in the nation.

Projected Conference Standings:

North

1. Missouri

2. Colorado (why CU and not Kansas? Because although Colorado plays at Kansas, the Buffs don't have to play Oklahoma, while Kansas does. Kansas also has to play Texas Tech, while Colorado plays Texas A&M)

3. Kansas

4. Nebraska

5. Kansas State

6. Iowa State

South

1. Oklahoma

2. Texas

3. Texas Tech

4. Oklahoma State - Moves into top-25, but like Ole Miss, has very little chance of moving up in its division.

5. Baylor

6. Texas A&M

Big-12 conference game of the week (Week 6): Colorado @ Texas

In 2005, Vince Young put not one (42-17), but two (72-3), complete beat-downs on Colorado.
In 2008, Rodney Stewart will get his carries and yards (over 270 in the last two games), but another Texas QB will torch the Buffs. It may be closer than the spread, but Texas will prevail.

Texas 35, @Colorado 27

3. Big 10 (Previous week: #3) 

Why is the Big 10 third, despite the (temporary) demise of OSU? Because it has more teams in the top-25 than any conference other than the SEC and Big-12. Penn State looks to be on the upswing, while Wisconsin is still highly ranked after surviving Fresno State.

Projected Conference Standings:

1. Penn State (previously #3) - A good win against a ranked Illinois team gives JoPa's team an early edge in the conference.

2. OSU - Buckeyes have a clear shot at the Big 10 title with Wisconsin's loss. But they still might lose in Happy Valley, especially with Penn State's offense clicking like it is.

3. Wisconsin ( previously #1) - The Badgers should've been in control of their own destiny in the conference. A big upset loss in the Big House flips the Big 10 title race.

4. Illinois - Only .500 after four weeks, the Illini don't look ready to win the Big 10 yet. But they still have more talent than MSU.

5. Michigan State

6. Michigan (previously #7) - Rich Rodriguez's first good win gives the Michigan faithful hope for the future.

7. Purdue (previously #6) - Maybe Notre Dame is much improved, maybe they aren't.  Purdue almost beat Oregon, but Michigan's win over Wisconsin puts them ahead of the Boilermakers.

8. Minnesota

9. Indiana

10. Northwestern - A win over Iowa doesn't get them much respect, but there are plenty of opportunities for an improved team to climb out of the lower depths of the conference.

11. Iowa

Big 10 game of the week (Week 6): Ohio State @ Wisconsin

Not a knock-out game with BCS implications anymore (at least at this point), the matchup should be hard-fought, and feature lots of what Big 10 teams do best: running the football. OSU's defense and the dual-threat Pryor should be enough for the Buckeyes to come out of Camp Randall with a win.

Ohio State 24, Wisconsin 14

Other Conferences:

4. Mountain West (Previous week: #4)

TCU failed to keep the score remotely close in the OU game, keeping the MWC from taking advantage of Wisconsin's flop and moving into the top three. However, BYU is still one of the best teams in the west, and better than any team in the 5th-8th-ranked conferences (until USC starts playing up to its potential again).

5. ACC (Previous week: #5)

Maryland is looking like a legitimate threat to make the ACC title game. Unfortunately for the conference, Wake Forest nullified Virginia Tech's re-entry into the polls by losing to Navy.

6. Pac-10 (Previous week: #6)

USC's loss destroyed whatever top-3 hopes the conference had, but top-to-(almost) bottom, the Pac-10 is still better than the WAC or Big East.

7. WAC (Previous week: #7)

Fresno State barely held on to beat UCLA. Boise State may be undefeated, but USC is still a much better top team for a conference to have. If Oregon beats USC, though, it might be hard to justify ranking the Pac-10 over the WAC.

8. Big East (Previous week: #8)

South Florida takes a big jump in the polls, but just like last year, one loss can send them spiraling down.