Auburn Football 2011: Auburn Fans Should Be Worried, Really?

Auburn fans are still hung over from the championship success of the 2010 season.  Meanwhile, the rest of the country, who did not even think of such a possibility before this past season, are already predicting doom for Auburn.

Obviously, their prediction is not entirely unfounded.  Auburn will lose 24 seniors, including their best offensive and defensive players from last year.  But that prediction speaks of improper research, especially of those players that are returning.

Do I expect us to make it back to the BCS?  No, not this year.  There is a reason why teams don't win back-to-back championships.  It's a right mix of talent, experience, coaching and scheduling that helps a team win. 

Take the Alabama team of 2009, for example.  They played home games against the likes of LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina and Tennessee and got some scares in three of those games.  Auburn played home games against LSU, Arkansas, South Carolina and Georgia, which no doubt helped.  This year, all those games are away, and that always affects the win-loss ratio. 

Yet Auburn will be in for quite a good season.  The most important reason is that this staff likes to "spread the wealth" more than most other big-name teams (not just in garbage time) and not leave the first players on the field for the vast majority of the game. 

Let's start with the most important position.  Cameron Newton just became the best one-and-done player in college football history.  His big shoes cannot really be filled, but don't expect the team's offensive production to drop much at all.  His soon-to-be replacement, Barrett Trotter, is known to be a better passer.  There is little doubt that he is going to be a very good leader as well. 

With Newton gone, the team's overall rushing yards will drop.  But with Trotter, overall passing yards will increase as well.  Does Trotter require Coach Malzahn to make a tweak to his offense?  Certainly, but Malzahn relishes such a challenge.  In his first year at Auburn in 2009 with a depleted roster, he made Chris Todd break records. 

Trotter is much more talented, strong-armed and mobile.  Next year, he has to tweak his offense to suit Cam Newton's gifts, and the results are there to see.  To add to that, he has more talent, and he now has players that suit his offense. 

The one area that Auburn will take a step back in will be the offensive line.  You don't just lose seniors with that much experience and expect the production to continue.  However, it's not like Auburn lacks experience along the offensive line.  Their performance might not be off the charts, but it will still be solid. 

Here are the reasons: Right tackle Brandon Mosley returns.  Tackle A.J. Greene returns as well.  Greene was actually the starting right tackle until he got injured for the season and Mosley took his place.  Guards John Sullen and Jared Cooper have a lot of experience as backups.  Redshirt freshmen Ed Christian has got experience as well. 

Along the center, departed Ryan Pugh's backup, Blake Burgess, has the necessary experience.  However, Auburn has the best center of the 2011 recruiting class, Reese Dismukes, enrolled early to get a head start.  OT Christian Westerman is also good enough to demand a place as well as a freshman can.  They will likely have some growing pains for the first few games, but overall, expect a solid performance for the season. 

Wide receiver and tight end positions are not a cause of concern by any means.  When Trooper Taylor arrived at Auburn in 2009, Auburn had no receiving game to speak of, until Darvin Adams and Terell Zachery emerged out of nowhere.  Even though Auburn loses both, they have Emory Blake, DeAngelo Benton and Quindarius Carr, all of whom have experience, along with talents such as Trovon Reed, Antonio Goodwin and Shaun Kitchens.  Phillip Lutzenkirchen might emerge as one of country's best tight ends next season. 

Admittedly, the running back positions lack depth when it comes to power running.  With the dismissal of Eric Smith, there is no power back to quell Michael Dyer.  Freshmen Tre Mason is expected to bulk up to over 200 lbs. and play immediately.  However, running back is one of the easier positions to play as a freshmen. 

Now for the defense.  Believe it or not, unlike Cam Newton, Nick Fairley is replaceable, but just not this season.  Look for sophomore Jeffrey Whitaker to take his place this year and turn in a solid performance.  Both Whitaker and Kenneth Carter got extensive experience last year, as did Corey Lemonier and Dee Ford at the defensive end positions. 

JUCO defensive end Joel Bonomolo was to be a factor last year before he got injured.  Josh Bynes' replacement, sophomore middle linebacker Jake Holland, got valuable experience throughout the season and also in the national championship game.  He has already received respect as a true leader, something required at that position.  

Auburn returns linebackers Daren Bates, Jonathan Evans and Eltoro Freeman, among those who got extensive experience in big games.  So there is definitely experience available at the defensive front seven.  Besides, the 2011 defensive line will be athletically superior to their 2010 counterparts. 

The secondary, which was woeful in 2010, is a guaranteed improvement.  Senior Neiko Thorpe, who thus far has underperformed, returns.  Only this time he will have early enrolled Jonathan Rose to challenge him and put pressure on him to keep his place.  Sophomore Chris Davis got a lot of playing time in big games.  At safety, Mike McNeil returns.  Look for junior safety Ikeem Means to make a name for himself as well. 

Something Ted Roof has lacked thus far is depth in the defensive backfield.  However, with one the best defensive back classes coming in for 2011, that is not an issue.  Since DB positions are among the harder ones to master as freshmen, I don't look to these players (with the exception of Rose) to make immediate impact.  However, having depth will help quell more experienced players, a luxury Auburn did not have the past two seasons. 

This leaves coaching.  Auburn's coaching staff loses Tracy Rocker but gains another Auburn man Mike Pelton.  If there is one thing that will decide whether Auburn have a very good or an average season, its leadership—especially in the trenches and at quarterback. 

However, this staff has shown the ability to develop leaders out of nowhere by helping players help themselves first, then their peers.  They are held accountable for their actions on and off the field, and if any player so much as disrupts the team chemistry, he is immediately disciplined or dismissed. 

So Auburn is in for a very bad season?  Not so fast, my friend.