A Dead 'Ringer' For Heisman? Not Likely

187 carries, 895 yards, 12 touchdowns and no fumbles. For most running backs, that would be a pretty good line heading down the home stretch of the season, but for Michigan State's Javon Ringer, this is only the beginning of what could be a potentially historic '08 campaign.

With all the talk about the senior tailback from Dayton, Ohio being a serious contender, it's important to remember the way Heisman voters have cast their ballots as of late and face the unique circumstances facing Ringer and his Michigan State teammates as they battle through 2008.

MISLEADING NUMBERS

At this pace, Ringer will finish the year with 2,148 yards, 500 yards less than UCF's Kevin Smith had at the end of 2007. Kevin Smith was not even a Heisman finalist. Nor was Tulane's Matt Forte, who finished '07 with 2,127 yards.

Recent history would suggest that the Heisman will not go to an offensive player on a team that lacks offensive balance, and getting the ball more than 35 times a game over the course of the season will be both a blessing and a curse for Ringer. Sure, the numbers will ensure Ringer a mention on Sportscenter and College Football Live but the lack of offensive balance exhibited by Michigan State since their opening week loss against Cal, will give some Heisman voters pause. As Forte and Smith proved last year, you can't win the Heisman as a running back playing on a team that never throws the ball.

A WEEKLY DRUBBING

While Ringer's success is the only chance Michigan State has to walk away from their Big Ten schedule, one that includes trips to Ann Arbor, State College and a trap game on the road in Evanston, with a berth in a New Year's Day bowl, it is certainly not beneficial to his NFL stock to continue getting 35 carries a game.

Already a player of problematic size, a mere 5'9", NFL scouts will be forced to wonder how much Ringer has left after a college career that saw the running back carry the ball more than 800 carries in a conference renown for being able to run and stop the run.

While Ringer will probably tell you that he'd gladly trade his NFL future for a Big Ten Championship and a shot at a Rose Bowl bid, I'm sure his tune will change next May when questions about his durability cause him to be a late first day or early second day draft pick.

TOUGHEST GAMES LIE AHEAD

Another aspect of Ringer's Heisman candidacy and statistical anomalies that has not been discussed is the caliber of team against which Ringer is stacking up these numbers. IU, Notre Dame, Eastern Michigan, and Florida Atlantic are hardly strong defensive teams, another factor that will lead to tempered expectations come voting time. If Ringer can continue to have the same kind of success we've seen so far (on less carries), he could run away with the Heisman.

But it certainly won't be easy.

With games upcoming against Ohio State, Wisconsin, Purdue, and Michigan, who despite having the most inept offense in the conference is relatively strong defensively, the second half of Michigan State's season will go a long way to determine whether Ringer is a Heisman contender or another pretender with padded stats.