College Football Predictions: Early Projections For The Top 25 Programs In 2011
With National Signing Day in the rear-view mirror and spring practices just around the corner, it’s now about time the sporting world turn its attention to college football. At least a little of that attention. Of course there are plenty of teams who have made strides from last season, and there are a few that have regressed.
The truth is that no matter what the expectations of the program are, the first step always is to crack the top 25. A program that puts themselves in the rankings is capable of anything. There will be plenty of speculation as the season draws nearer as to who will be inside that box, and who will be on the outside waiting for a chance to get in. So here’s a look at how the top 25 could shake down.
25. Mississippi State Bulldogs
1 of 25
Last Rank: 15
Here’s a team that seems to have the arrow pointing up, until you take a look at their schedule.
This year they have to play LSU and Alabama at home and face Auburn, Georgia and Arkansas on the road. There is nothing about that schedule that screams “easy.”
However, it’s not all bad news for the Bulldogs. They have seven players returning on each side of the ball. They were a strong 9-4 last season and there is no reason to think they can’t do it again this season. But if they slip at all, the SEC and this brutal schedule will clobber them.
24. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2 of 25
Last Rank: 20
Nebraska finds out this season just what the Big Ten is really like. They had a disappointing finish to last season and this year may make things easier on them.
They have lost key starters in their secondary, as well as important players in the backfield. They have to get Taylor Martinez’s confidence back on track if they want to improve the passing game and have a chance to win next season.
23. Virginia Tech Hokies
3 of 25
Last Rank: 16
Virginia Tech’s season relies on how much faith there is in Frank Beamer. They have lost quarterback Tyrod Taylor and they will be implementing an entirely new starting backfield.
For as much work as VT has to do, they do have four offensive lineman returning and they have seven starters on defense coming back. Virginia Tech has been the power in the ACC for the last four seasons for a reason. They know how to handle the turnover that is the norm in college football. Expect them to stay strong next season, even in an up and coming ACC.
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22. Michigan Wolverines
4 of 25
Last Rank: Unranked
Picking Michigan to crack the Top 25 isn’t really going out on a limb, but picking them to be relevant might be.
The Wolverines finally got the right coach for the job in Brady Hoke. Rich Rodriguez tried to change the culture of Wolverine football, and it simply didn't work. Hoke is a defensive minded coach who will have no problem with a slower, more physical game plan.
The Wolverines have 17 returning starters, including quarterback standout Denard Robinson, and should make for competitive season in the Big Ten
21. Missouri Tigers
5 of 25
Last Rank: 18
Missouri is fortunate that they won’t have much turnover with their starters, but where they do lose out, they get hurt badly.
Losing Blaine Gabbert is a big blow to the offense, even if it’s the only offensive starter they lose. The defense will also have to replace key starters in the secondary. This is a team that will be on the edge of the top 25 all season long.
20. Texas Longhorns
6 of 25
Last Rank: Unranked
Mac Brown deserves a lot of credit for what he did at the end of that season. After so much success at Texas, he made a ton of changes to move the program in the right direction. He knows you can’t just show up and be BCS eligible.
Now Brown faces a tough test in seeing if this all works well together. He’s hoping that Garrett Gilbert is going to fair better in his second season as starting quarterback. If they can get him protection then he can have success for the Longhorns.
19. Florida Gators
7 of 25
Last Rank: Unranked
If you have to lose one of the best coaches in college football, your back up plan couldn’t have been executed any better.
With a wealth of talent in Florida, the Gators went out and got a defensive minded coach in Will Muschamp, who will be able to execute a quick turnaround by playing top notch defense.
As for the troubles the seem to have plagued John Brantley last season? They brought in quarterback guru Charlie Weis, who may have had his difficulties in South Bend but he knows how to coach a quarterback.
Florida doesn’t need major surgery on their program, just a few stitches. Muschamp and Weis will help greatly.
18. West Virginia Mountaineers
8 of 25
Last Rank: Unranked
West Virginia's biggest offseason news came in the hiring of Dana Holgorsen. The young, bright offensive mind will serve as offensive coordinator this year before becoming head coach in 2012. His most noted experience was under Mike Leach at Oklahoma State, where he helped design one of the most high powered offenses in the entire FBS.
If he can have half the success he did at OSU, then the Mountaineers could make a lot of noise and be a very tough team to beat.
17. Auburn Tigers
9 of 25
Last Rank: 1
This is not a knock at Auburn, who had a great recruiting class and had a great year in 2010, but this season will be rough for them and it may be too tough to crack the Top 10.
They have lost four offensive lineman, their top defensive player and the most dynamic man in college football all in the same offseason. You combine that with the fact that they play in the toughest conference in college football and things aren’t looking great for Auburn this season.
Maybe by 2012 they’ll be right where they want to be, but it will take a season to regroup and rebuild. They’ll be good, just not close to what they were.
16. Michigan State Spartans
10 of 25
Last Rank: 14
The Spartans were a surprise team in the Big Ten last year, as their season picked up momentum after a gutsy overtime fake field goal against Notre Dame gave them a big win.
This season should be a carry-over of some of that momentum. They have most of their offense returning and besides their linebacking unit they will have most of their defense returning too. They have a tough schedule in the middle of their season, but even splitting a tough four game stretch should be enough to keep them in the middle of the top 25.
15. Wisconsin Badgers
11 of 25
Last Rank: 7
A lot of people will cite the fact that Wisconsin got beat by TCU last season in the Rose Bowl as a reason to not take them seriously this season. But these rankings aren’t about the Bowl game. They are about the journey.
Wisconsin returns with their potent running game intact and get linebacker Chris Borland back after missing last season. The Badgers were a hot team a year and with a favorable home schedule there is no reason they can’t be as successful in 2011.
14. Arkansas Razorbacks
12 of 25
Last Rank: 12
Arkansas, on paper, looks like a team ready for a fall, but that won’t happen. While the Razorbacks did lose Ryan Mallett, they do have one of the best groups of receivers in all of college football and still have Knile Davis coming out of the backfield.
The SEC West is always tricky, and appears as tough as ever in 2011. The Razorbacks face a road test with Alabama, but they do have a lot of home games, which should help them win some tight battles and preserve a spot in the rankings.
13. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
13 of 25
Last Rank: Unranked
While the Irish may have not contended for a National Championship last season, they did prove that Brian Kelly knows what he’s doing. He not only put Notre Dame back to respectability, but has started to change culture in South Bend.
A lot of this momentum should carry over into this season. He’s got 17 returning starters, including NFL prospect Michael Floyd. While Notre Dame does have to go against nine bowl eligible teams this year, they will get to battle them with a defensive loaded recruiting class.
12. Oklahoma State Cowboys
14 of 25
Last Rank: 13
The Cowboys haven’t won in the past few years because they were that good at stopping anyone. While this remains the case, their offense has become so explosive that it doesn't appear to matter.
So the fact that the Cowboys only have five returning defensive starters shouldn’t worry the Oklahoma State faithful. Their offensive system more than compensates for this, and success should continue for this program in 2011.
11. South Carolina Gamecocks
15 of 25
Last Rank: 22
Jadeveon Clowney is the big defensive end that the Gamecocks signed after signing day, and that puts their entire season into perspective. The recruiting job done by Steve Spurrier and company has been fantastic over the past few seasons.
South Carolina have all their skill position players on offense returning and they could be looking at a much improved season from the let down that was the end of last season. They have tough games against Florida and Auburn, but they are at home, making them much more winnable games.
10. Georgia Bulldogs
16 of 25
Last Rank: Unranked
Georgia had a disappointing year in 2010, but all that was forgotten as Georgia brought in the country’s number six recruiting class. The cherry on their class was Isaiah Crowley, the number one running back in the country.
He’ll have a chance to start and run through an offensive line that has four returning starters. Georgia always has a tough schedule, but they also have a quarterback with a bright future in Aaron Murray and am outstanding head coach who has seen success with the program. They won’t be winning their conference but they’ll give the big boys trouble.
9. Ohio State Buckeyes
17 of 25
Last Rank: 5
If the Buckeyes were playing in another conference, their season might be over before it’s started. They will be without five starters, including Terrelle Pryor, for the first five games of the season.
The good news to that is they have a relatively soft schedule during the first month of the season. If they can survive that at all they will be well in the hunt to win the Big Ten.
8. Boise State Broncos
18 of 25
Last Rank: 9
The future is bright for Boise State, but that doesn’t mean it includes a long awaited trip to the BCS title game. The Broncos are going to have some serious work to do to reach the summit in 2011. They have moved to the Mountain West conference, which isn’t on the level that some of the other conferences are, but is an upgrade from the WAC.
The good news for the Broncos is that they have Kellen Moore coming back, which should and should be able to keep up that potent offense.The Broncos open the 2011 campaign at the Georgia Dome against the Georgia Bulldogs. A win here could propel Boise into the BCS hunt yet again.
7. TCU Horned Frogs
19 of 25
Last Rank: 2
TCU did everything right last season, and still couldn’t find their way into the National Championship game. This year poses even more issues for the Hornedfrogs, as they face a tough game against Boise State in their final season in the Mountain West.
In addition, TCU is introducing their new quarterback Casey Pachall into the mix. However, TCU has always been a defensive minded team and that shouldn’t change now. Expect change, but not that much change. Another successful season is on the cards for the Horned Frogs.
6. Florida State Seminoles
20 of 25
Last Rank: 17
If you are looking for a program that is headed in the right direction, then look at the Florida State Seminoles. They have made steady strides (both in terms of on the field and recruiting), and are ready to make a big splash in 2011.
They are fresh off landing the number one recruiting class, and are already making noise in the hunt for 2012.
They have nine offensive and defensive starters returning, and finally look ready to dethrone Virginia Tech as conference king. Their only out of conference test will come against the Oklahoma Sooners.
It’s hard to say that a team that has been irrelevant for the last few years is going to earn a BCS birth, but it’s not out of the question.
5. LSU Tigers
21 of 25
Last Rank: 8
LSU is a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that they were impressive in 2010 and they didn’t have a passing attack to speak of. They now have a new offensive coordinator in Steve Kragthorpe that should breathe some life into this unit. The Tigers also have 17 returning starters meaning they shouldn’t miss a beat.
The bad news is that the three starters they lost on the defensive side of the ball were big. Tackle Nick Drevis and cornerback Patrick Peterson have left for the NFL, and couple that with a rugged SEC West schedule and you have the makings for a tough road.
Still, even if LSU stumbles, they won’t fall far. This program is loaded with talent.
4. Oregon Ducks
22 of 25
Last Rank: 3
While the Auburn Tigers fared better in the BCS title game, the Ducks look better for the 2011 season. The Ducks will have their incredible offensive firepower again next season, including the returning tandem of LaMichael James and Darron Thomas.
The key for the Ducks will be putting good guys on the offensive line who can replace the three starters they lost. But Oregon had a top 15 recruiting class that included some of the best offensive pieces in the country.
3. Stanford Cardinals
23 of 25
Last Rank: 4
Stanford would have fallen hard in the top 25 had they lost Andrew Luck for the NFL. But Luck thinks Stanford can win a National Championship and decided to return, and he might be right.
The key to Stanford will be their defense. They have lost seven guys on that side of the ball and, while they signed a top 20 recruiting class, it’s not certain any of those guys can contribute immediately.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
24 of 25
Last Rank: 10
Normally when a team loses its top of the line tailback and wide receiver, it’s headed for a down year, but truthfully the Crimson Tide don’t look like they’ll miss a beat. The beauty of the job Nick Saban has done in Alabama is that he’s managed to recruit so well. He has had top 10 or better recruiting classes for the past two seasons and he’s got another top five class this year.
He’ll have 22 players coming back with experience and should have one of the nation’s top 5 defenses next year. And considering they play in a very tough and highly respected SEC conference, they’ll get all kinds of love from the BCS.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
25 of 25
Last Rank: 6
The Sooners seem to be in this position every season. We favor them early and then something goes wrong by mid-season and derails their BCS hopes. Well, this might be the first time in five years a non-SEC teams wins the National Championship.
Oklahoma not only returns most of their offensive firepower, including quarterback Landry Jones, but they have 29 returning players in all.
It’s wouldn’t be unlike Stoops and company to fall short of their big game dreams, but if there is any time they will come through, now is the time.
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