College Football 2011: Predicting the Top 25 Teams for Opening Weekend
I did this a while back. You could call it my early-early-bird rankings.
Now it's time to flesh the rankings out a little more. With some players deciding to return to college, the rankings have been altered somewhat. For the most part, though, you'll find very few changes.
Some things to pay attention to: Boise State begins its first year in the Mountain West Conference and will host TCU, which is in its final year before heading to the Big East; new coaches begin their tenure at some of college football's most high-profile schools (Miami, Michigan and Florida); and the Southeastern Conference may have two of the nation's top running backs in South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore and Knile Davis at Arkansas.
What I did notice with a lot of these schools, too, are the abundance of questions that exist going into spring ball, whether it's replacing stars or building off last year's success. Mississippi State, for example, is in uncharted territory and really can't be considered the doormat in the SEC West anymore.
I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's just go ahead and look at the new updated Top 25 rankings for opening week:
25. Tulsa
1 of 25
Bill Blankenship, a former Golden Hurricane quarterback and Tulsa assistant coach for the past four seasons, takes over for Todd Graham, who went to Pitt.
I like Tulsa and especially like their trio on offense in quarterback G.J. Kinne, wide receiver Damaris Johnson and running back Trey Watts.
I don't think you'll see a dropoff for Tulsa's high-powered offense under Blankenship, and it will be competing again for the Conference USA championship.
24. Texas
2 of 25
I had Michigan at this spot in my previous rankings, but until Brady Hoke retools the defense and they actually learn how to tackle, the Wolverines are staying out.
You could make a pretty strong argument, however, that Texas doesn't belong in here either. The Longhorns are coming off their first losing season in the Mack Brown era, have a new defensive coordinator in Manny Diaz and a new offensive coordinator in Bryan Harsin, who was previously at Boise State.
Garrett Gilbert returns at quarterback, and it will be up to Brown to get all that talent he's stockpiled to help reverse Texas' fortunes from last year. I agree with him that many players acted entitled, but I also know it's leaders who can create—and influence—culture the most.
23. Florida
3 of 25
So my old roomy asked me back in December what I thought about Florida hiring Will Muschamp.
"Brilliant," I told him.
Muschamp was way too good of a coach to just bide his time and wait for Mack Brown to retire at Texas. If the right job came along, he would be gone. Sure enough, the Gators came calling. He hired Charlie Weis as his offensive coordinator, and now must inject some life into a program that fell flat last season.
Watch the quarterback competition, where John Brantley could get pushed by freshman Jeff Driskel.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. Georgia
4 of 25
The Bulldogs were 6-7 last season and now the heat is on Mark Richt to turn the program around quickly.
Georgia opens against Boise State in Atlanta. Quarterback Aaron Murray will be without wide receiver A.J. Green, who left for the NFL, but could get some help from running back Isaiah Crowell, one of the prized members of a tremendous recruiting class.
21. Auburn
5 of 25
I can't justify putting the defending national champions any higher, especially with Nick Fairley and Cam Newton headed to the NFL. Michael Dyer will return at running back, and the quarterback race could be between Barrett Trotter and incoming freshman Kiehl Frazier.
The Tigers also have road games at South Carolina, Arkansas, LSU and Georgia.
20. Mississippi State
6 of 25
The Bulldogs got a taste of success last year. Now the question is: Do they stay hungry and keep maturing and growing as a program, or do they coast and get complacent?
I've seen it happen, and I've also seen players get caught up in talk by fans who want to live off last year's glory. But Mississippi State will be faced with challenges, including having to replace offensive lineman Derrek Sherrod and defensive lineman Pernell McPhee.
If the Bulldogs can forget about last year's 8-4 record and 52-14 Gator Bowl victory over Michigan, then expect the SEC West Division to remain an absolute nightmare.
19. Virginia Tech
7 of 25
Seven starters return on defense, and four starters are back on the Hokies' offensive line.
Logan Thomas will get a shot to replace Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and David Wilson (pictured) is moving from returning kicks to being the starting tailback.
Virginia Tech will be just fine. After starting last year 0-2 and then winding up in the Orange Bowl, I've finally realized it's pretty stupid to doubt Frank Beamer.
18. Notre Dame
8 of 25
The Fightin' Irish got hit by injuries last year but still finished 8-5, including a Sun Bowl victory.
I want to see how comfortable players are in the second year under Brian Kelly's system, but it wouldn't shock me to see Notre Dame take the next step and wind up in a quality, second-tier bowl game. They're headed in the right direction, but they're still far from being a prominent, elite program like they once were.
17. TCU
9 of 25
That fella with the ball is Casey Pachall, who is set to take over as TCU's starting quarterback this fall. He was one of Gary Patterson's most prized recruits since he became the Horned Frogs' head coach and has spent the last two years being groomed by Andy Dalton.
Dalton's going to take a shot at the NFL. Now it's time for Pachall and many other new faces to help maintain the standard of excellence.
16. Nebraska
10 of 25
If Taylor Martinez can keep his head on straight and make better decisions, there's absolutely no reason he can't be in the Heisman race this fall.
Martinez and Rex Burkhead return on offense, which will lose tailback Roy Helu Jr.
Nebraska begins its first year in the Big Ten, and while it had a great season, the year ended in disaster with losses to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship and to Washington in the Holiday Bowl.
15. Arkansas
11 of 25
If you've got a bruising running back, you've got a shot in the SEC, and Knile Davis qualifies. If you saw him barrel through LSU's defense you know what he's capable of.
Davis is one of the top returning running backs in the nation and he'll take some pressure off Tyler Wilson, who should replace Ryan Mallett at quarterback.
Wilson showed off last year when Mallett was knocked out of the Auburn game. He completed 25 of 34 passes for 332 yards and four touchdowns in a 65-43 loss.
14. Missouri
12 of 25
The Tigers have 10 starters back on offense and seven on defense. But to improve on last year's 10-3 record, Missouri will have to win at Arizona State, at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M.
With Blaine Gabbert off to the NFL, watch his younger brother Tyler—a redshirt freshman—battle freshman James Franklin for the starter's role.
13. South Carolina
13 of 25
If you didn't do it last year, promise me you'll break out your to-do list and add "watching Marcus Lattimore this fall."
Lattimore should be a contender for the Heisman, and the running back returns along with quarterback Stephen Garcia and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery.
The Gamecocks will be the team to beat in the SEC East and could be even better than last year with the addition of defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (6'6'', 247 pounds), considered the nation's No.1 recruit this year.
12. Michigan State
14 of 25
Last year's Big Ten co-champs should be right back in the thick of the hunt with the return of quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Edwin Baker.
We'll see how good Michigan State is in October when it plays at Ohio State, returns home for games with Michigan and Wisconsin, then takes a trip to Nebraska.
11. Wisconsin
15 of 25
Still amused that Wisconsin wanted a rematch with TCU but wouldn't agree to a home-and-home. It's almost like they disrespected the Frogs by basically viewing them as a payday game.
Wisconsin will have to replace quarterback Scott Tolzien, who's a senior, but return its trio of runners in James White (1,029 yards rushing), John Clay (pictured, 936) and Montee Ball (864).
Defensive end JJ Watt will also be gone to the NFL, but the defense will get a boost from linebacker Chris Borland, the Big Ten Freshman of the Year in 2009, who missed last year with a shoulder injury.
10. Florida State
16 of 25
Is there a shift going on in Florida? Are the Seminoles about to pass Florida and regain their spot as the top school in the state?
Florida State just landed what many regarded as the nation's top recruiting class earlier this month.
E.J. Manuel will replace Christian Ponder at quarterback and he'll have some help in Chris Thompson (699 yards rushing, five touchdowns) and Bert Reed (614 yards receiving).
9. Ohio State
17 of 25
The Buckeyes are lucky that four of their first five games are at home this fall.
Ohio State will be without five players during that span, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, running back Dan Herron and wide receiver DeVier Posey, who violated NCAA rules for receiving improper benefits last year after selling various apparel.
8. Texas A&M
18 of 25
Ryan Tannehill will return, as will Cyrus Gray.
The Aggies' great season ended with a thud in the Cotton Bowl, but coach Mike Sherman was right when he said the challenge will be to build off what they accomplished and keep getting better.
The parts are there. Replacing Von Miller will be tough, but there's no reason why the Aggies can't be even better in 2011.
7. Boise State
19 of 25
When I heard that Kellen Moore decided to return to school, I immediately thought, "Heisman."
If I had to do a top five right now it would go: 1.) Andrew Luck (Stanford), 2.) LaMichael James (Oregon), 3.) Kellen Moore (Boise State), 4.) Landry Jones (Oklahoma) and 5.) Marcus Lattimore (South Carolina).
Along with Moore, Doug Martin returns at tailback for the Broncos, who begin play in the Mountain West this fall and open the season against Georgia in Atlanta.
6. Oklahoma State
20 of 25
The Cowboys will have to replace six starters on defense, but should be just as explosive on offense with the return of quarterback Brandon Weeden and wide receiver Justin Blackmon.
Oklahoma State finished as Big 12 South co-champs last season. It will be interesting to see if they finally break through and win the conference outright, or come up just short again.
5. Alabama
21 of 25
Alabama loses Mark Ingram, Greg McElroy, Marcell Dareus and Julio Jones, but returns 22 total starters and talented players like running back Trent Richardson.
Dont'a Hightower and Mark Barron also return after injury-plagued seasons in 2010.
Look for A.J. McCarron to replace McElroy at quarterback.
4. LSU
22 of 25
Jordan Jefferson is entering his senior season and has one more final act to pull off: Can he maintain his starter's job and beat out highly touted newcomer Zach Mettenberger?
Special teams could be the Tigers' biggest weakness, while the secondary shouldn't lose a step even with Patrick Peterson headed to the NFL.
Steve Kragthorpe takes over as LSU's offensive coordinator, and if he can develop any consistency at quarterback, the Tigers should be in the hunt for a BCS championship.
3. Stanford
23 of 25
OK, I saw him back in high school, and even still, Andrew Luck is incredible to watch. If you saw him throwing darts in the Orange Bowl, you can see why NFL teams covet him so much.
But they'll have to wait one more year, as Luck returns to the Cardinal, along with running back Stepfan Taylor, who rushed for 1,137 yards last season.
2. Oregon
24 of 25
LaMichael James and Darron Thomas should keep the Ducks offense humming, but they will lose wide receiver Jeff Maehl along with three starting offensive linemen.
The defensive line will also need to be rebuilt and a replacement will be needed for Casey Matthews.
Definite challenges, but not serious enough to keep Oregon out of the national title picture.
1. Oklahoma
25 of 25
I'm not even back home, but I'd be willing to bet there are plenty of Sooners fans who are both nervous and excited about the promise of this upcoming season.
Nervous, because Oklahoma's come up short in recent national title games against LSU, USC and Florida; excited, because there are 29 players returning, including Landry Jones (pictured) and wide receiver Ryan Broyles.
Expect Roy Finch to get the first crack at replacing outgoing running backs DeMarco Murray and Mossis Madu.
We'll see just how good Oklahoma is Sept.17 when it travels east to Florida State.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
