NLDS Breakdown: Cubs vs Mets

I write this piece under one large assumption (and belief):

Having watched the Milwaukee Brewers play this season, and with the understanding that CC Sabathia cannot pitch each of their five remaining games, they will not make the playoffs. This leads to the assumption that the Dodgers have already won the NL West, the Phillies will win the East, and the NY Mets will be the wild card and play the Chicago Cubs in the first round of the playoffs.

Now that we've assumed a few things, let's look at how the Cubs matchup against the Mets in the NLDS, position-by-position:

Catcher: Geovany Soto vs. Brian Schneider. Edge: CUBS

Schneider is a good catcher, but Soto has been not only the Rookie of the Year in the National League, but also a daily constant for the Cubs with clutch hits in crucial situations. The offensive numbers leave no question.

First Base: Derrek Lee vs. Carlos Delgado. Edge: METS

Derrek Lee has played fairly well in September and continues to hit third for the team with the best record in the National League... but Delgado has transformed April and May boo's into much deserved MVP chants in New York. Delgado has been the lone source of mature production from a team noted for its inability to control its temper all year. The only knock on Delgado is his numbers "suddenly" picking up after Willie Randolph was fired.

Second Base: Mark DeRosa vs Luis Castillo. Edge: CUBS

These players fill completely different roles with their teams. Castillo, a former leadoff man, runs well and hits in between Jose Reyes and David Wright - a position where he's called upon to move runners over or put a hit-and-run in motion. DeRosa signed a contract a couple years ago that brought a lot of grief in the direction of Jim Hendry; DeRosa had just produced a career year in his first real full-time role in Texas. DeRosa has done nothing but destroy his doubters since coming to Chicago, continuing to set career highs in almost every statistical category. This year he has more home runs than Derrek Lee and has not only hit in nearly every spot in the batting order, he also plays a solid third base or either corner outfield position.

Shortstop: Ryan Theriot vs Jose Reyes. Edge: DRAW

My position on the comparison of shortstops will undoubtedly draw the ire of many as a substantial "homer" call from a Cubs fan. HOWEVER, if you look at the numbers, this is a fairly even matchup. Both players hit over .300 this season (Theriot .304, Reyes .300), with similar on-base percentages (Theriot .381, Reyes .361). While it has been noted that Reyes has hit the 200-hit plateau, and Theriot has thirty fewer hits, place this in the context of 100 fewer at-bats for The Riot. Both play a good shortstop, and while an edge might be given to Reyes for being arguably the premier leadoff man in baseball with 52 steals, nobody has ever questioned Theriot's emotional stability or late night habits.

Third Base: Aramis Ramirez vs David Wright. Edge: DRAW

The numbers for these two are, as with shortstop, very similar. If there is one piece that separates them, though, it would be that Wright has shown a tendency to disappear in clutch situations in the past two season, while Ramirez has put up his best performances after the 7th inning.

Left Field: Alfonso Soriano vs Daniel Murphy. Edge: CUBS

Murphy's a nice player filling in for Angel Pagan, who filled in for Endy Chavez, who filled in for Moises Alou. Soriano is one of the most dangerous bats in the National League. While Soriano puts the "sive" in defensive, he can still run well and has a tendency to hit big home runs when they're needed. This edge also comes with the caveat that the Cubs outfield bench is significantly deeper than the Mets, allowing Lou Pinella to make a late game substitution for defense if needed.

Center Field: Jim Edmonds/Reed Johnson vs Carlos Beltran. Edge: METS

Similarly to the arguments in left field, the centerfield matchup is closer but still no question. Edmonds might have been the best acquisition for nothing this year in baseball, shocking perhaps even himself by hitting almost 20 home runs and playing a diminished version of his former Gold Glove self. Johnson has also fit in perfectly for the Cubs and had some timely hits. However, Beltran is one of the top four or five centerfielders in baseball. His range and arm are top tier, and he hits effectively in the middle of the lineup. Though he has more mood swings at the plate than my wife did while pregnant, he's still out there every day playing All Star-level baseball.

Right Field: Kosuke Fukudome vs Ryan Chuch. Edge: CUBS

Since coming back from injury, Church has looked legitimately lost in right field. While Fukudome possibly won't start more than half the games in right for the Cubs, the outfield depth the Cubs will have at their disposal (including DeRosa and perhaps Felix Pie) gives the overall edge at the position to the Cubs.

Starting Pitching (top 3): Ryan Dempster, Rich Harden & Carlos Zambrano vs Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey & .... Pedro? EDGE: CUBS

Ordinarily picing against Johan after the All Star Break and Pedro in October would make you say I'm crazy. However, consider that Dempster is 14-3 at Wrigley, where he'll start Game One, Harden has an ERA under 2 since being acquired in July, and Zambrano threw a no-hitter less than two weeks ago. While Zambrano has not been good since the no-hitter, he has thrown well in big games that have mattered. Pedro has looked old this year and there is no track record to qualify Pelfrey's potential October performance on.

Bullpen: Kerry Wood, Carlos Marmol and anyone else vs. whatever the Mets put out there. Edge: CUBS

The only reason A) Johan Santana hasn't locked up the NL Cy Young Award and B) the Mets haven't locked up AT LEAST the Wild Card, if not their division, is because of their bullpen. Since Bill Wagner went down, they have been miserable at best. When Jerry Manuel asks Johan to throw 300 pitches just to get a complete game (albeit tongue-and-cheek), you know the edge has to go to the team with two All Stars (Wood and Marmol), and young flame thrower who's played in South Bend pressure (Samardzija) and experience (Howry).

Intangibles: Lou Pinella & Wrigley Field vs Jerry Manuel & Shea. Edge: CUBS

Yes, Shea is closing. And Jerry Seinfeld will probably be there. And the Yankees won't be stealing their headlines in the postseason this year. But Lou Pinella has rings both as a player and manager and Cubs fans are with very few peers in all of professional sports. Throw in the home field advantage (the Cubs are 55-26 at home this year), and this is also a no brainer.

Overall Prediction: CUBS in 4.