Iowa Football 2011: Can Hawkeyes Be the Dark Horse of 2011 Big Ten Race?

With everything going on around the Big Ten, can Iowa sneak their way into the conference title race?  It seems every year there's one team that surpasses the best prognosticators' predictions and thunders their way into title contention.  Could this year be Iowa's year?

Right up front, it's important to note that no self-respecting prognosticator should go far enough out on a limb to predict the Hawkeyes to win the Big Ten title.  The massive amount of turnover on both sides of the ball is just too much to believe with any level of confidence that they'll have anything better than an 8-4 or 9-3 season.

However, there are some things that could help Iowa overcome the massive hurdles in front of them and take the Big Ten by storm.

The Legends Division is Wide Open

Nebraska joins the fray, and that should shake a lot of things up right away.  They're full of talent, well coached and have a lot to prove.  There's no way they're not going to be very competitive this coming season.

Michigan is not the Michigan of the last three years.  They have a young team that still returns a ton of talent that has been steadily improving over the last few years.  Brady Hoke has the confidence of the team and the fans and will have their team ready to get back on top right away.

Their one weakness a year ago was their defense and Greg Mattison should immediately make that much better.  The Wolverines should be a very serious contender in the Legends Division and, by proxy, a threat for the whole shebang.

I've been pretty hard on Michigan State, but the truth of the matter is, they're pretty darn good.  Mark Dantonio is a solid head coach and will maximize the talent he has returning. 

Speaking of that talent, the offense should be good enough to compete with anyone in the league.  QB Kirk Cousins is an experienced leader that has a lot of great help with a trio of good running backs and some solid receivers in Keyshawn Martin and B.J. Cunningham. 

While their defense might take a step back, it won't be terrible and they should do enough with their offense to help make up the difference.  Plus, they still have a little something to prove after having to share the conference title with two other teams last year and losing their bowl game in fantastic fashion.

Northwestern is rarely a threat to win the conference, but they're always a threat to play spoiler to all of the contenders.  Dan Persa may well be the best quarterback in America and Pat Fitzgerald is as dynamic a coach as you'll find anywhere. 

All of this could mean that Iowa is in a ton of trouble.  Can they compete with all of that talent and fire? 

The Hawkeye offense should be good and any Norm Parker coached defense is one that needs to be respected.  While all of these things could mean big trouble for Iowa, it could also mean just the opposite. 

If Iowa stay competitive and pull out a few close wins, the other teams might be busily knocking each other down, opening the door for the Hawkeyes to sneak in and steal the division.

The Leaders Division May be Somewhat Down

If you had told me the breakdown of these divisions two years ago and then told me that the Leaders Division would be the weaker of the two divisions, I'd have told you to lay off the sauce.

With Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin and Illinois all occupying the same half of the conference, how could it be weaker than one that features Michigan (remember, they were down two years ago), Michigan State (who was also down two years ago), Nebraska (the one tough name on the list) and Iowa (who has long been an up-and-down team)? 

However, Wisconsin is missing a bunch of talent from their offensive line, takes some hits on defense as well and is breaking in a new quarterback.  They'll still be good, but don't expect them to be quite as good as last year.

Ohio State is Ohio State, but they've lost a bunch of talent from the defensive side of the ball, have now lost both their quarterback and their head coach, and the drama surrounding the program is nowhere close to being over.  Buckeye fans are adamant that none of this matters, but I'm not convinced.

Illinois made positive strides last year, but have they peaked?  Ron Zook's recruiting classes haven't been as good as their competitors lately and it's come to a place where Zook is going to have to win with better coaching. 

Does anyone think Zook is that great of a technical head coach?

That leaves Penn State.  The Nittany Lions should be improved this year and if everyone stays healthy should be in the thick of the Leaders Division hunt.  However, for a myriad reasons, the Lions have failed over the last two seasons to reach their full potential. 

Even if Joe Paterno's crew lives up to expectations, the division as a whole is not as strong, in my opinion, than the Legends Division.  Therefore, if Iowa can take control of the Legends Division, they'll get the benefit of a weakened Leaders Division when it comes time to play the Conference Title Game in Indianapolis.

The Schedule Plays Out Nicely

Iowa does not have the most talented team to take the field for the Big Ten this fall.  Make no mistake about that. 

With a young and relatively inexperienced quarterback, a young and relatively inexperienced running back and a relative lack of depth at receiver, Iowa's offense has some question marks. 

Defensively, everyone knows how much damage was done to the Hawkeyes when they lost Adrian Clayborn, Karl Klug, Christian Ballard, Brett Greenwood and Tyler Sash.  While there is still plenty of talent there to work with, that's an All-Star list of Who's Who that departed and left a major void.

The schedule helps them build up the new starters and maximize the talent they have available though.

The out-of-conference portion is a good mixture of easy opponents (Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe) and respectable competition (at Iowa State and against Pittsburgh). 

The conference portion has road dates at Penn State, Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska.  At least a couple of those are all-but-certain wins and the other two are winnable, but tough. 

The home slate contains Northwestern, Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State.  None of those are pushovers by any stretch (even Indiana).  However, Iowa is 21-9 inside Kinnick Stadium over the last five years and the best of those years have been the last three. 

Iowa gets to miss Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois during the regular season.  That's three of the best four teams from the Leaders Division.

Certainly, there are plenty of opportunities for letdown.  Virtually any of the conference games could be toss-ups and both Iowa State and Pittsburgh are dangerous.  However, it could be far worse and, the conference opener at Penn State aside, the Hawks get plenty of time to pull things together before things get really tough.

Iowa Thrives When the Pressure is Off

It's annoying really.  I love the underdog as much as the next guy, but I'm more than a little tired of Iowa only coming through when everyone else is counting them out. 

Luckily, that's this season.  With the massive amount of loss the team has sustained, the admission of Nebraska into the conference, the return of Wisconsin's running back dynamic duo (White and Ball) and everything going on around Ohio State, Iowa is forgotten in the bigger Big Ten picture.

This is where Iowa thrives.  When no one is predicting them to be a major player in the conference race, they step up.  When everyone says they're done, they're not. 

Once again, the Hawkeyes can play the "us against the world" Rodney Dangerfield (we get no respect, I tell ya) cards. 

If you're planning on counting Iowa out, change your mind.  Count them in.  Just don't do it publicly.  As long as there's no pressure to be one of the best, they're likely to be one of the best.  It's crazy, I know, but that's Iowa. 

It's a Long, Hard Road, but...

If I had to make a hard prediction today as to where Iowa will finish their 2011 season, I wouldn't hesitate to say 8-4 and third or fourth in the Legends Division.  I wouldn't blink an eye at that prediction.

However, knowing Iowa and looking deeply at what's happening around the conference, there's reason to think they might do better.  They might do much better. 

If it happens, it likely won't be all them.  The Hawks fortunes may well come at the misfortunes of others.  The Spartans, Wolverines and Cornhuskers may knock each other out of the glory land and leave the door open for the Hawkeyes. 

That doesn't diminish the possibility in any way.  That's the way things go every year.  That's college football.

Realistically, Iowa should expect a decent season with a quality bowl game at the end of it.  Anything better than that will require a lot of people to step up in big ways and for some lucky bounces to go Iowa's way. 

However, this is exactly when it's time to keep an eye on the Hawks.  While the rest of the world is talking about Ohio State, wondering about Nebraska, praising the potential of Wisconsin or predicting the return of the Michigan of old, now is the time to keep one eye on Iowa. 

They just might be the dark horse that bullies their way into the Big Ten title picture.