College Football 2011 Predictions: Over-Under Win Total for Every Big 12 Team
With National Signing day behind us, we can turn our collective attention towards the actual 2011 season that lies before us like an empty canvas.
The masterpiece that will someday be the 2011 Big 12 college football season will be a work of art that does not include any buffaloes or corn cobs; yes, the 2011 season will witness the exit of Colorado and Nebraska from the Big 12 ranks.
The ten teams that remain members of the twelve-less conference will now play only three non conference games (as opposed to four) and will play each conference foe once per season.
There is no “north” and there is no “south”, indeed, the Big 12 is now quite division-less and unity and equality (well, not so much) reigns supreme.
So then, how will each team perform in 2011?
What can we deduce from each team’s performance in 2010, their incoming freshman class, losses suffered by graduation and attrition and their actual 2011 schedule?
The following slide show attempts to do just that, first by boldly assigning each program with an over/under win total prediction for 2011 and then declaring which side of this line the team is more likely to fall on.
As a bonus a “best guess” 2011 record for each team has been included at no additional charge.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” – Niels Bohr
Baylor Bears
1 of 10
2010 Record: 7-6
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 6.5
Prediction: Under
Baylor put to a stop a historic skid in 2010 by ending their 16 year postseason drought and winning four conference games for the first time since the Big 12 was formed for the 1996 season.
Even though they went on to lose to Illinois in the Texas Bowl this is finally a Baylor squad that has a firm grip on two commodities that have of late been scarce in Waco; hope and belief.
The Bears return nine offensive starters to a unit that was No. 36 in scoring and five defensive starters to a unit that ranked No. 89 overall.
Robert Griffin III will return under center but a defense that struggled in 2010 (giving up 188 points in the four game season-ending losing skid) will have plenty of holes to fill; especially in the secondary.
Baylor’s incoming 2011 class earned a No. 44 ranking by Rivals.com and includes a few three star defensive backs that may well need to be fast starters.
Baylor’s 2011 non conference schedule includes TCU, Stephen F. Austin (FCS) and Rice; all three will be played in Waco. The Bears have Texas, Missouri and Oklahoma at home but will have to travel to College Station to face Texas A&M and to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State.
Regardless of the improvements Art Briles has made Baylor will have to over achieve to manage more than five or six wins in 2011. The Big 12 is a mine field and even if Baylor’s offense continues to flourish, a weak secondary in a pass happy conference may prove disastrous.
Best Guess in 2011: 5-7
Iowa State Cyclones
2 of 10
2010 Record: 5-7
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 4.5
Prediction: Over
Iowa State’s five to seven 2010 campaign can only be fairly judged when considering that the Cyclones played what Phil Steele deemed the No. one most difficult schedule in college football.
Other than a loss to Colorado (which had a new interim coach as a huge motivating factor) Iowa State’s losses in 2010 were all to teams that were in the Top 25 at some point and four were in the Top 10 (Iowa, Utah, Oklahoma and Nebraska) when they faced off.
Iowa State returns five offensive starters and seven defensive starters to a squad that was not in any way statistically dominant in 2010 (again, refer to who these guys played).
Offensively, the biggest loss is senior QB and team leader Austen Arnaud.
The Cyclones 2011 recruiting class did not rank among the top 50 in the land.
Iowa State’s non conference opponents for 2011 include Northern Iowa and Iowa (both at home) and then a road trip to recently BCS eligible Connecticut.
One of the bigger challenges for the teams of the recently disbanded north division of the Big 12 is that they will now have to face each of the former members of the Big 12 south every year. Suddenly, you don’t wonder which you will face but instead you play all six every year (Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Baylor).
The bottom line is that the Cyclones will be faced with another scorching schedule in 2011.
Though Iowa State will host Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State road trips to Norman, Columbia and Lubbock will be tough.
Overall, you have got to like what Paul Rhoads has done in his two years in Ames, where the Cyclones continue to look competitive even against a daunting slate of opponents.
Best Guess in 2011: 4-8
Kansas Jayhawks
3 of 10
2010 Record: 3-9
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 4
Prediction: Over
Turner Gill’s debut season at the helm of Jayhawk football was rough. After a devastating loss to FCS North Dakota State in the opener Kansas scored a shocking victory over then No. 15 Georgia Tech but went on to win only two more games in 2010 (over New Mexico State and Colorado).
Kansas returns eight starters on an offense that ranked No. 111 in scoring and six starters to a defense that ranked No. 103 in scoring.
The Jayhawks have managed a 2011 signing class that ranked No. 34 overall in the country and included a wide variety of 3 star rated recruits that could prove valuable sooner than later.
Kansas’ non conference schedule for 2011 includes hosting McNeese State (FCS) and Northern Illinois and wraps up with a visit to Georgia Tech.
The Jayhawks will have tough road games versus Oklahoma State, Texas, Iowa State and Texas A&M and will host the balance of Big 12 opponents at home in Lawrence.
So then, how much will the Jayhawks mature after a rough 2010 and how quickly can a solid signing class be brought up to speed and utilized on game day?
Despite the coaching change and serious questions offensively Kansas under performed in 2010. Given a year under his belt Turner Gill should be able to do more with a talented Kansas team that is not that far removed from a BCS Orange Bowl bid and victory.
Best Guess in 2011: 5-7
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Kansas State Wildcats
4 of 10
2010 Record: 7-6
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 4.5
Prediction: Over
2010 saw Bill Snyder (in his second year of his second stint at KSU) take his team that went 6-6 in 2009 to a 7-6 mark including a bowl bid that resulted in a loss to Syracuse in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.
The 2010 Wildcats were most impressive, offensively speaking, on the ground where they earned a No. 22 national ranking averaging just less than 200 yards per game rushing.
Unfortunately, losses to graduation on offense are lead by Daniel Thomas who accounted for 1585 yards rushing and 19 touchdowns. Also gone is QB Carson Coffman who was 171/263, 2060 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Overall, Kansas State returns six starters offensively and eight to a defense that ranked No. 78 in points against.
The biggest losses on defense are in the secondary where the Wildcats are paper thin and looking down the barrel at a slate of games against pass happy Big 12 foes.
KSU’s 2011 signing class did not make the Top 50 rankings nationally.
The Wildcats non conference schedule starts out slow with home games against Eastern Kentucky (FCS) and Kent State but week three features a daunting road trip to Miami to face the Hurricanes.
In Big 12 play the Wildcats have Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas A&M in Manhattan but will have to travel to Lubbock, Stillwater and Austin.
Questions on offense and the secondary (combined with an expanded Big 12 schedule) may well make the goal of bowl eligibility more difficult than it was in 2010.
Best Guess in 2011: 5-7
Oklahoma Sooners
5 of 10
2010 Record: 12-2
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 10.5
Prediction: Over
The 2011 edition of the Oklahoma Sooners is already being heralded as the early No. one preseason pick (by Rivals.com, SI and ESPN).
Oklahoma finished 2010 12-2 including a 48-20 drubbing of Connecticut in the BCS Fiesta Bowl.
Losses in 2010 were against good Missouri and Texas A&M teams (and both occurred on the road) but despite an early blow out win over Florida State (in Norman) the Sooners avoided near misses to Utah State (FCS), Air Force, Cincinnati, Texas, Oklahoma State and Nebraska.
The combined margin of victory in these six contests was 29 points.
The Sooners return nine starters on offense but lost RB DeMarco Murray who accounted for 1214 yards, 15 touchdowns and a critical 69 catches. QB Landry Jones returns for 2011 as do most of the receivers and the offensive line.
On defense Oklahoma returns eight starters including key players on the defensive line and the secondary.
The Sooners 2011 signing class is ranked No. 13 overall and includes a five star recruit in RB Brandon Williams and four, four star ranked defensive linemen.
Non conference games include the opener versus what should be an excellent Tulsa squad (in Norman), Ball State and then a huge September 17 road trip to Florida State.
Big 12 games include hosting Missouri, Texas Tech and Texas A&M in Norman (an incalculable advantage for the Sooners) and a tough road visit to Stillwater to face Oklahoma State in the finale.
The Sooners schedule sets up well for a run at a BCS bid and national title. The omission of a Big 12 title game certainly can’t hurt.
Best Guess in 2011: 11-1
Oklahoma State Cowboys
6 of 10
2010 Record: 11-2
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 9
Prediction: Over
The Oklahoma State Cowboys were overlooked by most of the college football brain trust in 2010; this is not going to happen in 2011.
The 2010 Cowboys torched their way to an 11-2 record including a 36-10 dismantling of Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. Under new offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen (a Mike Leach protégé who has already been plucked by West Virginia as their “coach in waiting”) OSU was No. 2 nationally in passing and ranked a lofty No. three in scoring offense.
The Cowboys return ten starters to their prolific offense (including QB Brandon Weeden and WR Justin Blackmon) but suffer the loss of RB Kendall Hunter who accounted for 1548 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2010.
Oklahoma State’s biggest concerns going into 2011 will be defensively where they return six starters to a unit that ranked No. 61 in scoring “D”. Losses include three starting defensive lineman, two starting linebackers and a starting corner back.
The Cowboys 2011 incoming class is ranked No. 28 nationally by Rivals.com and includes a four star RB (Herschel Sims from Abilene Texas) and a four star QB (J.W. Walsh from Denton, Texas).
OSU’s non conference schedule includes an opening home stand versus Louisiana-Lafayette and Arizona (who should be thirsty for revenge) and wraps up with a road game against Tulsa that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Though the Cowboys host the Sooners at home in the closer they have the unenviable task of road trips to College Station, Austin, Columbia and Lubbock.
The 2011 version of Oklahoma State will have all the pressure of a preseason Top 10 ranking and the very real challenges of reworking their defensive line, finding consistency in the secondary and replacing a great running back.
Best Guess in 2011: 10-2
Missouri Tigers
7 of 10
2010 Record: 10-3
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 8
Prediction: Under
It seemed that for most of the 2010 season the Missouri Tigers flew under the radar, and if it weren’t for two consecutive mid season losses (at Nebraska and then at Texas Tech) the Tigers may well have flown out of obscurity, into the Big 12 Championship and beyond.
In 2011 the Tigers are faced with replacing their star QB Blaine Gabbert and most of their defensive secondary. On the plus side, their defensive line stays intact as does a receiving corps that was dominant in 2010.
Overall, Missouri returns nine starters on offense and six on a defense that ranked a surprising No. six in scoring (allowing opponents an average of only 16.1 points per game).
The Tigers incoming 2011 signing class (ranked No. 47 nationally) includes a solid group of four three star defensive backs and 14 other commitments garnering three or more stars from Rivals.com.
Missouri will open its campaign by hosting Miami (OH), traveling to Tempe to face an improving Arizona State team and then coming home for a game with Western Illinois (FCS).
Big 12 road games include Oklahoma and Texas A&M and home contests versus Oklahoma State, Texas and Texas Tech.
The big questions in Columbia for Gary Pinkel and crew is how to replace Gabbert and a defensive secondary, all against a more “naughty” than “nice” schedule of opponents (who will throw the ball, a lot).
Best Guess in 2011: 7-5
Texas Longhorns
8 of 10
2010 Record: 5-7
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 8.5
Prediction: Under
Predicting what Texas will do in 2011 is akin to guessing what color Lindsay Lohan’s hair color will be during her next trip either in or out of rehab.
2010 was indeed supposed to be a relatively “off” year for perennial powerhouse Texas but how 10-2 became 5-7 is hard to pinpoint.
Unbelievably, Texas suffered losses to the likes of UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor and Kansas State, managed a last place finish in the Big 12 South, was not bowl eligible and before it was all over lost both its coordinators, a slew of assistants and a great deal of confidence.
The Longhorns return seven starters offensively and seven defensively; the major hits are at wide receiver, offensive line and corner back.
Not surprisingly, Texas still managed to haul in the No. three nationally ranked recruiting class including scoring 15 four star recruits (the most in the country).
Texas starts its 2011 campaign with three challenging non conference games, Rice and BYU (both in Austin) and then a trip out to LA to try and avenge their loss to UCLA.
The Longhorns Big 12 road schedule includes visits to Iowa State, Baylor, Missouri and College Station while they will host Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State in Austin.
None of this would have seemed difficult until you watched Texas play in 2010.
Will the offense improve and will Garrett Gilbert still be under center? Who can or will run the ball (successfully)? Will the defense be as good as billed or how good will they be billed? Will talent and speed equal wins and who will be a leader?
Regardless, the 2011 Texas Longhorns should be one of the most provocative story lines of the upcoming season and despite the ugly showing in 2010 don’t be surprised if you see the Longhorns ranked high among the preseason Top 25 teams in the land.
Best Guess in 2011: 8-5
Texas A&M Aggies
9 of 10
2010 Record: 9-4
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 9.5
Prediction: Over
The 2010 Aggies began the season with more hope than the lassie-loving people of College Station Texas had mustered in quite some time. The actual campaign began with a three game non conference winning streak followed by the Aggies dropping their next three and Mike Sherman suddenly looked like the next gray haired, bespectacled middle aged coach to be moving out of town.
But then, as if scripted, Texas A&M reeled off six straight memorable victories against a formidable set of foes ending with a 9-3 regular season record, a Cotton Bowl bid and a new lease on life.
Even an ugly loss to LSU in the bowl game couldn’t squelch Aggie dreams of grandeur that may materialize into a Top 10 preseason ranking going into 2011.
The Aggies, who ranked No. 34 in both scoring offense and defense in 2010, will return 10 starters on offense and eight on defense. Key losses include Von Miller and Michael Hodges at linebacker.
A&M ranks No. 27 among 2011 recruiting classes including two four star DB signers that could prove valuable in the pass dominant Big 12.
The Aggies will open 2011 by hosting an improving SMU team and then Idaho (both at home) before opening the Big 12 season versus Oklahoma State in College Station.
The remaining non conference contest will be against Arkansas in Arlington and then the Aggies will face road trips to Lubbock and Oklahoma as a part of their Big 12 slate.
Texas A&M has no easy road to the BCS (nor does any other Big 12 team) but all indicators point to the Aggies building on a successful 2010 and quite possibly a return to the big money.
Best Guess in 2011: 10-2
Texas Tech Red Raiders
10 of 10
2010 Record: 8-5
2011 Over-Under Win Total: 8
Prediction: Over
If there was a gauge to meter “upheaval” in a college football program, Texas Tech’s reading from late December 2009 through December of 2010 would be off the charts.
The 2010 Red Raiders managed an 8-5 mark on a season that by Halloween, looked about as probable as a warm January day in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
But somehow, someway Tommy Tuberville’s debut offering at Tech managed eight wins including a wild 45-38 victory over Northwestern in the Ticket City Bowl (which was complete with yet another borderline psychotic fake kick-off).
In 2011 the Red Raiders return seven starters to an offense that ranked No. 23 in scoring and eight starters to a defense that ranked a dismal No. 93 in points allowed.
Key losses include QB Taylor Potts, RB Baron Batch, WR Detron Lewis, WR Lyle Leong on offense and defensive leaders DT Colby Whitlock, DE Brian Duncan, two linebackers, a corner back, a safety and both the kicker and punter.
Even with the substantial losses offensively Tech should be able to re load somewhat effectively which leaves big holes in a defense that was simply porous in 2010.
Tech’s 2011 recruiting class is ranked a program high No. 19 and includes big gains at running back and defensive line.
The Red Raiders upcoming non conference slate is somewhat underwhelming with Texas State (FCS), New Mexico and Nevada (not to be overlooked) and has a tough trio of road games in Norman, Austin and Columbia.
Tech has the advantage of hosting Texas A&M and Oklahoma State at home but will have no easy time with its conference foes.
What Tommy Tuberville, OC Neal Brown and incoming DC Chad Glasgow (formerly the DB coach at TCU) can do with the solid recruiting class and remaining veterans remains to be seen but it seems safe to say that Tech fans can at the very least expect more consistency in 2011.
Best Guess in 2011: 9-3
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