Washington Nationals: Who Will Replace the Ghost of Adam Dunn at First In 2013?

Hosni Mubarek of Egypt thinks life is pretty tough for him right now, that things are so unstable he might get hurt or worse, he may lose his job.

Ah, that’s nothing. You want instability and health problems? Try being a first baseman for the Washington Nationals. Since their first year in the Nation’s Capital, the Nationals have had a string of players who everyone knew were not the team’s long-term answer at first base.

We all remember Nick Johnson with fondness, and he was a very good complementary player. But he couldn’t stay healthy and didn’t provide enough power for a first baseman. In 2005 and 2006, Johnson missed a combined 46 games and averaged .290-19-76.

He missed the entire 2007 season and played in just 38 games the next year before suffering another injury, which resulted in missing the rest of the season.

The Nationals found their next first baseman on the major league scrap heap. At 33, Dmitri Young had just gone through a year that included a domestic violence charge, treatment for alcoholism, and spent a few days in the ICU for his diabetes.

He somehow overcame all of that and starred for the Nationals in 2007, batting .320-13-74 and made the All-Star team. He was rewarded for his efforts with a $5 million contract for 2008 but weight issues and other injuries limited him to just 50 games.

He never played another game in the Major Leagues.

In 2008, Aaron Boone—signed to be the team’s utility infielder—played the most games at first for Washington, hitting .241-6-28.

2009 saw Nick Johnson back at first, hitting .295-6-44 in 353 at-bats before being traded to the Florida Marlins. Adam Dunn replaced him and promptly made eight errors in 60 games. He returned in 2010 and provided some stability, but it was clear that he would not be returning in 2011.

When Jim Bowden was forced out in the spring of 2009, new General Manager Mike Rizzo made it clear that it was defense and pitching that would turn around the moribund franchise he inherited.

Adam Dunn was gone the moment that Rizzo took over.

Now, for the next two years, the Nationals will feature Adam LaRoche at first base, who was the team’s third choice to replace Dunn.  LaRoche will be 33 at the end of his contract and if he wasn’t the team’s first choice in 2010, he won’t be their first choice in 2012 either.

So who’s going to play first base in 2013? If the team looks internally, they have three choices:

Chris Marrero had the misfortune of being drafted the year after Ryan Zimmerman. On the day that he was chosen as the team’s first-round pick, Zimmerman had been in the major leagues since Opening Day, hitting .274/.330/.477 with 10 home runs and 41 RBI for Washington.

No one expected the 18-year-old high schooler to be the next Ryan Zimmerman, but it was thought he would at least come close.

Offensively, he’s been everything Jim Bowden hoped for and more. Over his five minor league seasons, he’s averaged—based on 550 at-bats—.281/.347/.459 with 32 doubles, 2 triples, 21 home runs and 92 RBI.

There is no doubt that Marrero will be a quality major league hitter. The question is his defense. He was a third baseman in high school, but with Zimmerman already a regular fixture there for the Nationals, Marrero moved to the outfield.

That didn’t work. In three seasons, he made 15 errors and had just a .956 fielding percent.

He spent the last two seasons at first and things just got worse. He committed 46 errors and his .983 fielding percent was worse than Adam Dunn’s .990 mark and 13 errors last year.

The Nationals were willing to give up Adam Dunn’s 40 homers because of his poor defense. If that’s the case, they certainly won’t be willing to bring in a worse defender with less power in 2013.

No, there is zero chance that Marrero every plays with the Nationals. At some point in the next year, he’ll be traded to an American League club where he will have a solid if unspectacular career as a designated hitter. And that should make him fairly valuable, perhaps being part of a package for a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Tyler Moore came out of nowhere last season to become the Nationals’ heir apparent at first base.  After leading his Mississippi Bulldogs in home runs (.299-14-56), he was drafted by Washington in the 41^st round of the 2008 MLB Amateur Draft.

He started slowly, batting just .200/.239/.306 with six home runs for Class-A Vermont. Over the past two seasons, however, Moore has excelled. Playing for Class-A Hagerstown and Potomac, he has averaged (again, based on 550 at-bats) .287/.350/.500 with 45 doubles, 2 triples, 25 home runs and 123 RBI.

But last season’s numbers make you want to scratch your head. He hit 31 homers and drove in 111 runs in just 502 at-bats, which is unbelievable. However, Moore was batting just .199 at mid season with nine home runs. And just when the team was ready to send him back down to Hagerstown, he exploded.

Moore batted .358 in July, .336 in August and .500 in September, hitting 22 home runs in just 58 games. Was the slow start an anomaly? Was the power surge in the second half an anomaly? Moore’s 2011 season at Harrisburg should answer those questions.

That said, however, he seems to be every bit the power hitter that Marrero is, probably even a little better.

The problem—like Marrero—is his defense. Though not as embarrassing as Marrero’s, his defensive statistics mirror Adam Dunn, who as you remember was jettisoned because of his … bad … well, you get the idea.

Over his three seasons, Moore’s career fielding percent of .989 is one point lower than Dunn’s and his 17 errors per 162 games is, well, kind of ugly.

As a point of reference, current Nationals’ first baseman Adam LaRoche has committed 44 errors in his seven-season career and has a .995 fielding percent. Moore has committed 29 errors in 2 ½ seasons and Marrero has made 46 in three years.

Sure, I understand that Moore and Marrero are playing on minor league infields and neither they—nor their fellow infielders—are as polished as major leaguers.

That said, if defense is the answer to the Nationals’ resurgence, then Tyler Moore and Chris Marrero are questions and not answers. 

Perhaps the best in-house option for the Nationals isn’t even a first baseman.

When the team breaks spring camp and heads north, either Jesus Flores or Wilson Ramos will be “Pudge” Rodriguez’ backup. If Flores is healthy as expected, that will give the team two quality catchers for one position.

In 572 major league at-bats, the 24-year-old Flores has batted .260-16-99 and is a quality defender behind the plate. Wilson, 22, has averaged .285-13-70 over his five minor league seasons (550 at-bats) and hit .278 in 79 major league at-bats last year.

And as good a defender as Flores is, Ramos could be even better.

Once Rodriguez’ contract ends at the end of this season, Ramos and Flores could provide a quality tandem behind the plate for the next five or six years.

But what about Derek Norris?

Even though he was drafted in the fourth-round of the 2007 MLB draft, Norris was headed to baseball powerhouse Wichita State before a visit by Assistant GM Bob Boone changed his mind. Boone flashed his World Series ring, seven Gold Gloves and a few pots full of Lerner-money and Norris signed his professional contract.

He started off slowly, hitting just .203-4-15 for the Nationals’ Gulf Coast League affiliate, but since then has shown a keen eye and excellent power. Since that first season in the GCL, Norris has averaged .261/.414/.462 over 550 at-bats with 38 doubles, 1 triple, 26 home runs and 99 RBI.

And remember, Norris was a 21-year-old in the Class-A Carolina League; Moore was 23.

Hand surgery slowed him in 2010 but he was fully healed when he played in the Arizona Fall League, hitting .278/.403/.667 with four homers and 19 RBI (40 home runs, 190 RBI in 550 at-bats).

One good season at Double-A Harrisburg and he should be ready to spend at least some time with the Nationals in 2012.

But at what position?

There is no question that Norris has the least defensive skills of the Nationals’ three young catchers. Randy Knorr has recently said that he should mature into a major league catcher, but why accept “good enough” defensive skills when the team already has two players capable of throwing out 50% of opposition base runners?

After the 2008 season when Norris stole 11 bases in 70 games, the Nationals considered moving him to another position as he advanced within the system. Said a member of the front office, “Norris has great speed and there is talk of perhaps moving him to first or to a corner outfield position.”

As a point of clarification, Norris has “great speed” for a catcher. He has above average speed for an infielder. He has 25 steals in his four minor league seasons.

I think Norris would thrive at first. By definition, all catchers are plus defenders. They must have good lateral range, they need to be able to catch a pop fly behind their back, and must be able to catch balls in the dirt if they hope to make an out.

A good first baseman must do all of those things, and Norris already can.

If Norris spends all of 2011 at Harrisburg learning first base, he would likely be ready to play at the major league level—both offensively and defensively—by the middle of 2012, just in time to trade Adam LaRoche for a few prospects.

Derek Norris is a better hitter than either Tyler Moore or Chris Marrero, and will certainly be a far better defender with a year of seasoning under his belt. Moore will be 25 when LaRoche’s contract is over. Marrero and Norris will be 23.

It makes the most sense to get Norris, Ramos and Flores into the lineup, and moving Norris to first will do that.

Let’s see if it happens.