Monster Mash: Can Tito trust Masterson in the playoffs?

The success of Red Sox phenom Justin Masterson since his major league debut on April 24th has been well documented. The 23 year old rookie lost only once in his first seven starts, reminiscent of the 2007 Clay Buchholz at a time when the 2008 Buchholz looked more like a 2002 Tomo Ohka. Despite his success as a starter, the front office sent Masterson back to the minors to condition him as a relief pitcher for the remainder of the season.

It was easy to like Masterson, Amalie Benjamin of the Boston Globe even called him her “favorite player to talk to” during a mailbag earlier this season. When he returned in late July to bolster the Boston bullpen, Fire Brand of the American League created a poll to fabricate a nickname for the young sinkerballer. After whittling down to three semifinalists, one of the monikers won in a landslide; the Monsterson was born!

A funny thing happened as Masterson went from top Sox prospect to cult-icon on the local nine. His effectiveness in the 7^th, 8^th, or 9^th innings isn’t quite matching the results from earlier in the year. Nobody is suggesting that midnight has struck and he is going Gagne on the team, but check out some revealing statistics since his July 23^rd recall:

Appearances	Innings	Walks	Strikeouts	Losses
First 11	15 IP	2 BBs	18 Ks	0 Ls
Last 11	12 IP	9 BBs	6 Ks	2 Ls

The meltdown on Tuesday night against the Rays reminded me of another Red Sox relief pitcher/cult hero from 2007 who looked awfully tired as the year ended, Hideki Okajima. You may remember, Okie woke up on August 8^th, 2007 with an unheard of 0.98 ERA and over the next two months doubled it and then some, ending with a still respectable 2.25. However, during a two week, six appearance stretch in late August, Okajima’s ERA skyrocketed from 1.17 to 2.28; it’s very possible Masterson could be experiencing similar fatigue at this point in the season. 

Looking deeper into his numbers, you can see that Masterson has actually allowed less home runs, had a better ground ball-to-fly ball ratio (always important for a sinkerball pitcher), and increased his ratio of called strikes-to-swinging strikes, which shows his ball is moving well, in his last 11 appearances. Those numbers indicate it  could be a case of bad luck, or it could be a tired arm losing control. It is well documented the potential emotional damage a young pitcher with control problems can inflict; Rick Ankiel is the first to come to mind.         

Obviously Monsterson is being counted on to play an important role during the playoff run in 2008, but can and should Terry Francona continue to trot out the youngster if he doesn’t show signs of recovering from his current funk? Is Masterson’s future worth risking for this season’s playoff push, or does he need to take a break and allow the team to lean on Manny, Okie, Javy, and Papelbon for 2008? The Red Sox organization values and protects its young arms, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the front office would dictate a shut-down before Francona would make such a move. Add this one to the list of Big Papi’s swing, Papelbon’s splitter, and the health of Beckett/Lowell/Drew as the most interesting situations to monitor during the final week of the 2008 season.