College Football: 10 Teams That Could Make Their First BCS Appearance in 2011
Breaking into the BCS simply isn’t easy to do.
Of the 120 teams that make up the FBS (previously Division I-A) only 45 have ever participated in the BCS bowl-a-thon; this equals a striking 38 percent.
To further illustrate; 57 total BCS bowl games have been played since the BCS kicked off after the 1998-99 season which means a total of 114 BCS bowl bids have been extended over time. While these 114 total bids have been offered to a mere 45 teams even more interesting is the fact 57 of these bids (or 50 percent) have been put forward to a total of 10 teams.
Who are they?
Ohio State (nine), Oklahoma (eight), USC (seven), Florida (six), Florida State (six), Virginia Tech (five), LSU (four), Miami-FL (four), Texas (four) and Michigan (four).
Most recently, out of the 10 teams that made up the 2010-11 BCS field, only two were newcomers.
TCU, Wisconsin, Oklahoma, Stanford, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Auburn and Oregon had all danced before while both Arkansas and Connecticut had not yet been asked onto the cash-riddled dance floor.
Securing a spot in the BCS means (if you play in an automatic qualifying, AQ, conference) winning your conference or securing an “At Large” or “Automatic” bid (which requires a complicated set of requirements). If you are not in an AQ conference, you need to go undefeated, anything less is unacceptable.
So, who will break through the iron ceiling into the BCS in 2011-12? Who will run the tables and do what they have to do to force the BCS to extend a hand written invitation to hoopla and moola?
The following slideshow attempts to identify 10 possibilities to what has to be considered a herculean task.
Oklahoma State
1 of 10
The No. 2 passing attack in the nation from 2010 returns 10 starters (including Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon), but the Cowboy attack will be without OC Dana Holgorsen who is now the head coach in waiting at West Virginia.
Defensively, the Cowboys return six starters to a squad that ranked No. 61 in scoring “D” but were a No. 107 nationally against the pass (allowing on average a scorching 276 yards through the air per game).
Oklahoma State’s incoming recruiting class is ranked No. 24 nationally by Rivals.com and their non-conference slate for 2011 includes Louisiana-Lafayette, Arizona and Tulsa. Notably, they will meet with instate rival Oklahoma in Stillwater therefore totally avoiding daunting Norman.
If the Cowboys are to be serious contenders in the now smaller Big 12 and are a real threat to break through to the BCS; considerable improvements must be seen on both the defensive line and secondary.
Michigan State
2 of 10
Arguably, the Spartans did what it took to end being left out of the BCS in 2010 by going 11-1 and beating Wisconsin (who were eventually named Big 10 Champions and awarded a trip to the Rose Bowl).
Regardless, Michigan State will have to conjure up another magical run in 2011 to make another foray towards BCS inclusion.
The Spartans return seven starters on offense (including Kirk Cousins and Edwin Baker), and though they retain six starters on defense, the loss of Greg Jones and Eric Gordon at linebacker won’t be easy to overcome.
Michigan State’s incoming recruiting class is ranked No. 29 overall by Rivals.com and their non conference opponents include Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic and Central Michigan (making a non conference sweep seem more than doable).
If what remains of the 2010 Spartan squad can stay healthy and get some breaks along the way, 2011 might be another thrilling year in East Lansing. However, one thing working against the Spartans is that if they are again a force to be reckoned with, no one will be surprised.
Mississippi State
3 of 10
It just seems like Mississippi State is on the verge of becoming a great team. Dan Mullen improved his 2009 Bulldogs from 5-7 to 9-4 in 2010 (including a 52-14 thumping of Michigan in the Gator Bowl) which begs the question: what will he do in 2011?
The Bulldogs return eight offensive starters (including Chris Relf and Vick Ballard) and seven on the defensive side of the ball (including a formidable defensive line).
On the minus side, Mississippi State loses its entire linebacker corps which is notable to a squad that held opponents to, on average, under 20 points per game.
The Bulldogs 2011 recruiting class is ranked No. 37 overall by Rivals.com and their upcoming non-conference schedule includes Memphis, Louisiana Tech, UAB and Tennessee Martin.
Though they will travel to Auburn, Georgia and Arkansas, the Bulldogs have LSU, South Carolina, Alabama and Ole Miss at home in Starkville.
Winning the SEC West and then the SEC will be a daunting task for the Bulldogs especially given the relative strength of Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU. That said, the Bulldogs would seem to be a team with a realistic chance of breaking through in 2011.
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Missouri
4 of 10
Though the Tigers obviously have to replace Blaine Gabbert at quarterback in 2011, they will return their entire receiving corps and most of their defensive line.
Missouri returns a total of nine offensive starters and six on defense. Defensively, the Tigers lose three starters in their secondary (a unit that ranked No. 36 overall against the pass).
The Tigers incoming 2011 recruiting class is ranked No. 47 overall and their 2011 non-conference slate includes Miami (OH), Arizona State and Western Illinois.
Missouri’s quest to win the Big 12 could be halted early with a September 24 visit to Norman to face preseason top ranked Oklahoma.
If the Tigers can utilize its other venerable offensive weapons to help cover the loss of Gabbert and find a way to be successful against the pass-happy Big 12, they will have another chance to be a “surprise” on the national level.
Arizona State
5 of 10
The improvements at Arizona State might seem underwhelming, but, taking a squad that went 4-8 in 2009 to 6-6 in 2010 is no small accomplishment, especially given three of the six losses in 2010 were to teams who went on to garner BCS bids.
With the exception of their 50-17 blowout loss at Cal, Arizona State’s total margin of defeat in its five other losses was 20 points.
The Sun Devils return 11 starters on an offense ranked No. 28 in scoring in 2010 and nine on a defense that ranked No. 55 in scoring.
Can Arizona State actually be BCS bowl hopeful in 2011?
Early tests at home vs. a good Missouri team and then at Illinois will definitely be a good indicator.
Could this finally be the year that Dennis Erickson turns the tide in Tempe?
Air Force
6 of 10
Air Force’s road to the BCS will become significantly more difficult with Boise State being added to the Mountain West conference for the 2011 season. Additionally, TCU will still be around for another year before moving to the Big East in 2012.
But, the Falcons continue to improve under fifth-year coach (and Air Force alumnus) Troy Calhoun and may be ready to break through.
Air Force returns six offensive starters in 2011 and seven members of the defense that ranked No. 28 overall will be back for 2011.
The Falcons quest for a BCS bid can only come from perfection which means beating the likes of Notre Dame (in South Bend), TCU (at home) and Boise State (in Boise) which is no easy task for any team.
Difficult? Absolutely.
Impossible. No way.
Anyone who watched Air Force play then No. 7 Oklahoma to a 27-24 result (in which the Sooners had to come back to win) in Norman last season must believe the Falcons are capable of something great.
North Carolina State
7 of 10
North Carolina State managed a nine-win season in 2010 (including a 23-7 Champs Sports Bowl win over West Virginia) which represents the best mark the Wolfpack has achieved since going 11-3 in 2002.
The Wolfpack returns eight starters to an offense ranked No. 32 overall in scoring in 2010 and eight starters to a defense that ranked No. 29 in scoring.
North Carolina State will more than likely need to come close to perfection in order to even come close to a BCS Bowl bid.
Luckily, the Wolfpack’s schedule is somewhat favorable with non-conference games vs. South Alabama, Central Michigan and Liberty and hosting Clemson, Georgia Tech, Maryland and North Carolina in Raleigh.
A trip to a Tallahassee to face Florida State late in the season may be the key to determining the “for real” factor of the football squad from North Carolina State.
Central Florida
8 of 10
In 2010, George O’Leary’s UCF Knights captured a Conference USA title and the program’s first ever bowl win with a stunning 10-6 upset of Georgia in the Liberty Bowl.
So, what’s next for the Knights who will return seven starters on offense and four starters on defense?
Any fantasies UCF has of becoming a BCS buster lay completely in making a perfect run in 2011. This feat would include wins over Boston College, BYU and potentially a Houston Cougar squad with a healthy Case Keenum.
The Knights ranked No. 31 overall in points scored and No. 8 nationally in scoring defense in 2010; building on this could cause a program that only has been playing football since 1979 (in the FBS since 1996) to become a national sensation.
Interesting note: UCF’s 2011 recruiting class ranks No. 49 overall nationally, which is third overall (behind TCU and SMU) among non-AQ teams.
Texas Tech
9 of 10
The Red Raiders return seven offensive and eight defensive starters to a squad that just barely managed an 8-5 record in 2010.
Tommy Tuberville’s first offering in Lubbock featured a mildly (by Tech standards) effective offense and a tragic defense (No. 120 overall in pass defense).
Though Texas Tech will welcome its highest ever ranked recruiting class in 2011 (No. 17 according to Rivals.com), they have major holes at quarterback and at defensive line.
A favorable schedule plays into the Red Raiders favor with non-conference games versus New Mexico, Nevada and Texas State. Tech has Texas A&M and Oklahoma State in Lubbock but will face both Texas and Oklahoma on the road.
As a certified (or certifiable) Texas Tech enthusiast, I realize that the mention of Texas Tech to make it the BCS in 2011 is a bit of a homer; but, here is a team with all the pieces in place to make it to the BCS in the next several years.
2011 would be a shocker; 2012 or 2013 may hold more water.
South Florida
10 of 10
The South Florida Bulls under Skip Holtz are still a bit of unknown. Holtz’s initial season in Tampa produced an 8-5 mark (including a 31-26 win in the Meineke Car Care Bowl over Clemson) for a team that was predicted to go 6-6.
The Bulls return five starters on offense and six on defense to a squad that struggled offensively but flourished defensively.
2010 proved that the Big East is wide open and despite any predictions there are still no clear leaders going into 2011 (especially given the continued instability in coaching).
2011 will be the final year without TCU amongst the Big East ranks, and somehow, you have to believe all these factors lead to USF being in a position to make a BCS run in 2011.
Objectively speaking, the Big East offers the best opportunity for a first-time team to achieve a BCS Bowl bid; for the Bulls, a late season game versus Miami (FL) may determine whether they are the next “first timers” from the Big East.
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