2011 Pac-12 South Prediction Flipped: USC Defeats Arizona State
In my “2011 Pac-12 South: Predicting the Season and Finish for 6 Teams,” written just before Christmas, Arizona State is forecasted to win the USC game and go on to play Oregon for the Pac-12 title.
That prediction is all wrong.
Without sounding capricious, this prognostication must be modified. I’m going with the Trojans.
I thought this game would be close and gave the nod to the home team; however, recent events, and looking deeper into the history of this matchup, compel a contra version of the former projection.
Not that USC will play Oregon for the Pac-12 title, but that the Trojans will defeat the Sun Devils.
NCAA sanctions against USC call for 2011 bowl ban. If the USC appeal to the NCAA on January 22nd results in bowl ban relief, then USC will play Oregon for the Pac-12 title.
Click next to see why the previous results are reversed.
USC Has the Most Pac-12 Talent – Stacked Compared to Arizona State
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USC has more premier players consisting of four and five star talent than any other team in the Pac-12. This includes Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona State.
USC will list approximately 60 players on their roster that are 4-star or 5-star players.
Arizona State will list approximately 13 such players and only one is a 5-star player.
Arizona State may only be starting one or two 4-star players on offense in QB Threet and WR Bell. Other Sun Devils (RB Lewis, WR Bell, WR Robinson, OT Schwab, and OG Schlink), may see increased playing time from their backup roles, but seasoned players will play for the most part.
This page is too short to list USC’s approximate 30 starting/backup players on offense. A few of those players include QB Barkley, RB Tyler, RB Baxter, WR Woods, WR Prater, WR Ambles, WR Farmer, OT Kalil. Those are all 5-star players. There will be over 20 other USC 4-star players (offense only), listed on game day.
A nearly identical analysis holds true when comparing USC’s advantage on defense. USC has the edge in talent and depth, on offense and defense, over Arizona State.
USC Continues to Out-Recruit Arizona State
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Despite the NCAA sanctions, USC continues to out-recruit every other team in the Pac-10 in 2010 and Pac-12 in 2011. USC has a top-ten nationally ranked recruiting class for every year since 2003 as shown in the table below.
Arizona State has not had a top-ten recruiting class during that same time frame. The Sun Devils average about 30th in the nation for recruiting, except lately. The Sun Devils only have one 4-star commit this year in QB Michael Eubank, although some reports have his verbal as wavering.
It is simply amazing that USC recruited the number one class in the country in 2010 and has a top five in 2011. Some journalists question the number of USC commits; however, confused fans need to research how total scholarship count is figured to recognize Coach Lane Kiffin’s recruiting success.
Should the NCAA measures be reduced after USC’s recent appeal, look for USC to continue to continue their success. USC will out-recruit Arizona State in 2011 and their additions at O-line and linebacker will make a big difference in 2011.
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | |
| USC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| ASU | 18 | 22 | 31 | 32 | 28 | 45 | 21 | 30 | 35 | 61 |
Top Quality Player Losses Affect the Sun Devils More Than the Trojans
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USC’s significant player quality and depth allows them to reload each year.
When a top quality player leaves Arizona State early – they feel it.
USC lost DT Jurrell Casey early to the NFL. Casey was rated as a 4-star player. DT George Uko, another 4-star defensive lineman will step right in. When 4-star NT Hebron Fangupo left for family reasons, 4-star NT DaJohn Harris will line up in his place.
For the Sun Devils, 4-star DT Lawrence Guy’s early departure to the NFL will be felt. 3-star redshirt junior DT Toa Tuitea will likely replace him. Arizona State can’t just plug in another 4-star or 5-star player like USC can. The one 4-star DT on the Sun Devil's roster, Corey Adams, will be needed to replace senior DT Saia Falahola.
Any player injury would adversely impact to the Sun Devils. There just isn’t the same level of top quality depth that USC has at most every position. This might be an issue in 2011 with Arizona State's tough schedule that includes games against Missouri, at Illinois, USC, Oregon State, at Utah, at Oregon, Arizona, and Cal.
USC can absorb player injuries better than Arizona State can.
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2010 Was a One-Point Game at USC. So Does ASU Win at Home?
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No! Arizona State will not win a close one at home.
Both teams had several close games last year.
- ASU lost by one point at Wisconsin
- ASU lost by three points at Oregon State
- ASU lost by one point at USC
- ASU lost by four points against Stanford
Swing those four close games ASU’s way and they end up with a record of 10-2
- USC lost by one point against Washington
- USC lost by two points at Stanford (with clock help)
- USC lost by four points against Notre Dame
Swing those three close games USC’s way and they end up with a record of 11-2
Last year’s “close ones” have no bearing. This game comes down to players and execution.
Both teams have good coaches. USC’s players have adjusted to their new coaching staff and will execute their philosophies better in 2011. Arizona State returns slightly more players on both sides of the ball and will play well too. USC just has too many better players.
USC Tops Arizona State – Even When the Sun Devils Are Highly Ranked
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USC has defeated Arizona State in every game they have played this century. That trend will continue in 2011. The Sun Devils were ranked in 2004, 2005, and 2007 and still lost to USC.
In 2007, Arizona State was ranked higher than USC, but lost.
Losses to USC at Sun Devil stadium are by an average of 17 points.
USC will continue their dominance of Arizona State.
| Year | Visitor | Score | Record | Home Team | Score | Record |
| 2011 | USC | 0 | (0-0) | Arizona State | 0 | (0-0) |
| 2010 | Arizona State | 33 | (4-5) | #24 USC | 34 | (6-3) |
| 2009 | #4 USC | 14 | (7-2) | Arizona State | 9 | (4-5) |
| 2008 | Arizona State | 0 | (2-4) | #8 USC | 28 | (4-1) |
| 2007 | #11 USC | 44 | (9-2) | #6 Arizona State | 24 | (9-2) |
| 2006 | Arizona State | 21 | (3-3) | #3 USC | 28 | (6-0) |
| 2005 | #1 USC | 38 | (4-0) | #14 Arizona State | 28 | (3-2) |
| 2004 | #15 Arizona State | 7 | (5-1) | #1 USC | 45 | (6-0) |
| 2003 | #10 USC | 37 | (4-1) | Arizona State | 17 | (2-3) |
| 2002 | Arizona State | 13 | (6-5) | #8 USC | 34 | (8-2) |
| 2001 | USC | 48 | (2-4) | Arizona State | 17 | (3-2) |
| 2000 | Arizona State | 38 | (5-4) | USC | 44 | (4-5) |
Why Did Arizona State Lose to USC 44-24 in 2007?
6 of 9Here are a few facts from USC at Arizona State in 2007:
#11 USC (8-2) at #6 Arizona St. (9-1)
USC came into that game with the 49th ranked offense in the nation, the 66th ranked passing offense, and the 33rd ranked rush offense. They were averaging 30.7 PPG.
Arizona St. came into that game with the 22nd ranked offense in the nation. The 23rd ranked passing offense, and the 47th ranked rush offense. They were averaging 34.2 PPG.
On defense, Arizona St. had 10 more takeaways than USC.
Synopsis*: Behind a strong performance by John David Booty, the Trojans defeated the Sun Devils, 44–24, in front of a sold-out Sun Devil Stadium. Under an even passing attack, Booty threw for 26 of 39 passes for 375 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions and also rushed for a touchdown, distributing the ball to eight different receivers, including four separate players for his touchdowns. Tight end Fred Davis made five receptions for 119 yards and a touchdown.
Now replace Booty with Barkley, Davis with Grimble/Telfer, and the 2011 results are QED!
Source: 2007
Arizona State Is Set Up to Beat USC at Home – Just Like 2007
7 of 9Arizona State will play three straight games without an open date before playing USC. The Sun Devils open with a relatively easy UC Davis. In week two, Missouri, who finished 10-3 last year, will be a much more difficult challenge. Then Arizona State travels to Illinois who play tough at home.
USC plays three straight home games before meeting the Sun Devils. The Trojans open with Minnesota (3-9 last season) followed by Utah (10-3) and Syracuse (8-5).
The Trojans and Sun Devils schedules are similar in strength. One difference is that Arizona State has a road game just before their meeting with the Trojans. Injuries to either team would obviously affect the game in Tempe, Arizona.
Home field advantage would normally give Arizona State a three point advantage; but USC has won every game at Sun Devil stadium for over a decade. This includes 2001 and 2007 when Arizona State was the favored team going into the game. In fact, those two games, when USC was the underdog, rank among the biggest margins against the Devils in the last decade.
Game Managers and Playmakers Will Make the Difference
8 of 9This year both offenses should be improved. Arizona State might be slightly more susceptible to the run with the loss of DT Lawrence Guy and DT Saia Falahola.
USC’s passing game to wide receivers Robert Woods, Markeith Ambles, Kyle Prater, De’Von Flournoy, Brice Butler, Brandon Carswell, and possible George Farmer, will be the difference.
Look for outstanding play by USC tight ends Xavier Grimble and Randall Telfer as well.
This will happen despite Arizona State’s quality cornerbacks in Omar Bolden and Osahon Irabor. Those two will be exhausted by the end of the game.
USC quarterback Matt Barkley will play better than Arizona State’s quarterback Steven Threet, who will be replaced in the third quarter by quarterback Brock Osweiler.
Game managers and playmakers will be the difference in the game where USC will surprise the Sun Devils with a huge offensive output.
Conclusion
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Both USC and Arizona State have maturing teams that are coming of age and have stable coaching staffs this year
USC’s 60 4-star and 5-star players outnumber Arizona State’s will 13 (one 5-star player).
There is a huge disparity between these two schools with regards to past recruiting and USC has significantly more depth than ASU. USC is out-recruiting ASU again this season (and probably will in the future).
USC can absorb player losses due to injury. Arizona can’t.
USC has developed a history of beating ASU and that trend will continue. This is true even when ASU is favored, ranked higher, or they play at ASU.
USC will beat ASU 45-31 with the passing game and the Trojan playmakers will be the difference.
And.........
If USC’s NCAA appeal is successful in decreasing the scholarship limitation sanction and lifts their bowl ban this year, then USC will represents the Pac-12 South to play Oregon for the title.
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