2011 College Football Predictions: 10 Head Coaches Facing Make-or-Break Seasons
“All right, nobody move! I’ve got a dragon and I’m not afraid to use it! I’m a donkey on the edge!” –Donkey from "Shrek"
When is “enough” really “enough”?
When are excuses such as “When I get my own guys in here that fit my schemes,” or “This schedule was a killer,” or “Injuries combined with the difficulties in recruiting here with these facilities” no longer plausible?
Which coaches in college football are running out of time, on a short rope or living like “a donkey on the edge?”
Who is closer to the “hot seat” than a contract extension and who needs a big 2011 to preserve the right to place “Head Coach” in front of their name and follow it up with the institutional name atop their (sometimes) fat pay check?
Last season it was guys like Rodriquez, Hawkins and Sherman who needed big seasons to eliminate an “I’m leaving on a jet plane” scenario.
In the end, Sherman doused the flames under his chair while Rodriquez and Hawkins fanned the blaze and were eventually asked to leave town for good.
The following slideshow attempts to identify 10 coaches who need the kind of 2011 that will keep them employed for another year.
The standard for staying put is different for each gridiron leader; some need to break .500 and be bowl-eligible, while others need the type of break-out or “signature” seasons that they promised when they took over at their current institution.
Rick Neuheisel, UCLA
1 of 10
Years in Current Position: 3
Overall Record: 15-22
2010 Record: 4-8
Rick Neuheisel took over the reins at UCLA in 2008 with magical statements such as “The monopoly is over in Los Angeles.”
Three losses to USC later Rick Neuheisel is in an unenviable position in the “City of Angels."
Neuheisel’s Bruins improved from 4-8 in 2008 to 7-6 (and a bowl victory) in 2009, but did not live up to the high expectations entering into the 2010 season with a bitterly disappointing 4-8 finish.
Despite an “upset” victory over Texas in Austin, the 2010 Bruins suffered ugly losses to Stanford, Cal, Oregon, Washington and Arizona State.
How ugly? The combined margin was a frightening 209 to 61 (with 34 of the Bruins total 61 points coming against Arizona State).
Though the Bruins ranked a disappointing No. 86 overall in total defense, they were an appalling No. 103 overall in scoring offense (down several spots from their No. 94 ranking in 2009).
Will the hiring of offensive coordinator Mike Johnson from the 49ers save the offense, the Neuheisel era at UCLA and the short term future of the program?
Stay tuned to 2011 for all the answers.
Brady Hoke, Michigan
2 of 10
Years in Current Position: Just hired
Overall Record: 0-0
Yes, it might seem a bit premature to declare Brady Hoke on the hot seat before he even gets an opportunity to get started at Michigan.
But, all disclaimers aside, the Michigan fan base is not in the same mental state they were when Rich Rodriguez took over at the close of the Lloyd Carr era.
Carr went 9-4 in his final season in Ann Arbor (2007), including a bowl victory over Florida, and went 11-2 in 2006, which ended with a loss to USC in the BCS Rose Bowl.
Rich Rod took over a Michigan program wanting more, which equated to winning the Big 10, beating Ohio State and vying for a National Championship.
Flash forward past three Rich Rod seasons resulting in 3-9, 5-7 and 7-6 marks. The Wolverines definition of “more” has suddenly changed; is more less, or is more REALLY more this time?
Regardless, the enthusiastic Hoke will be expected to produce sooner than later.
How much pressure will be added because many Michigan faithful may feel as if the Wolverines “settled” for Hoke instead of big names like Miles and Harbaugh is unknown.
The best thing that could happen to Brady Hoke is to beat Ohio State in 2011. A native of Dayton, Ohio Hoke knows that beating the Buckeyes for the first time since 2003 would give him at least a couple of years to work with at Michigan.
Mike Stoops, Arizona
3 of 10
Years in Current Position: 7
Overall Record: 40-45
2010 Record: 7-6
Mike Stoops is another guy who could, arguably, be at least one additional season away from being on a “coaches on the edge” list.
Stoops enthusiasm and passion make it hard to fathom letting him go only to be scooped up by another big program (or NFL team).
But at what point will the Arizona brass and fan base expect something beyond finishing 8-5 or 7-6 and a decent bowl invite?
Can the Wildcats realistically dream of more? Will a Pac-10 title or BCS bid be possible while Stoops as at the helm?
What hurts Stoops going into 2011 is the fact that the Wildcats dropped their last five games in 2010, including an Alamo Bowl loss to Oklahoma State.
Regardless of how good the opponents might have been (with the exception of a double-OT loss to in-state rival Arizona State), five consecutive losses to sleep on for nine months leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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Mack Brown, Texas
4 of 10
Years in Current Position: 13
Overall Record: 133-34
2010 Record: 5-7
It’s hard to believe that any line of discussion other than “When will he retire with high honors?” would be viable regarding the length of Mack Brown’s tenure at Texas.
A record of 133-34 overall and 82-21 in conference play. Six Big 12 South titles, two Big 12 Championship Crowns, 3-1 in BCS play, six Top 10 finishes, 12 Top 25 finishes and one national championship.
What else could these people want from Mack Brown?
The answer to that question is found on the flip side of “Why it’s so great to coach at Texas.”
Rated No. 1 nationally as the “best coaching job in college football” by Athlon Sports, the Texas job is cash-rich, full of prestige, a destination rather than a part of the journey and it’s chock full of BIG expectations.
However you explain it, analyze it or dissect it, the 2010 Texas Longhorn season was, in UT terms, totally unacceptable.
Forecasting 2011 and an “inevitable” turnabout is made even more precarious by the exit of both coordinators and other key coaching personnel.
It was unthinkable at the end of 2009 that Mack Brown and “firing” would be used in the same sentence in Austin.
At the end of 2010 it was not just easy to think it—if you jumped on internet comment boards, listened to talk radio and read the newspaper, it was openly discussed and hotly debated.
Mack Brown probably won’t get fired if the Longhorns can’t turn things around in 2010, but he may well be forced out the most lucrative door in college football.
Ron Zook, Illinois
5 of 10
Years in Current Position: 6
Overall Record: 28-45-0
2010 Record: 7-6
Ron Zook needed a winning record in 2010 to extend his tenure at Illinois into 2011.
Lucky for him, he got it.
Illinois’ 7-6 mark in 2010 included four Big 10 victories and a win over Baylor in the Texas Bowl; all “just the ticket” for a university administration and fan base who needed to believe that they still had the right guy for the job.
But how long will the lukewarm glow of 7-6 last?
How many wins does Ron Zook need to be granted more time to completely transform fighting Illini’ football?
His new offensive and defensive coordinators (brought in for 2010) helped the team achieve seven wins.
But with a highly productive offense yet porous defense, how much farther can they climb?
Neil Callaway, UAB
6 of 10
Years in Current Position: 4
Overall Record: 15-33-0
2010 Record: 4-8
UAB has only been to one bowl game in its 20-year history (the 2004 Hawai'i Bowl, where they lost 59-40 to Hawai'i).
The Blazers had hoped that Callaway (an offensive coordinator at Georgia, Alabama and Houston) was the answer to UAB taking the next step as a college football program.
After achieving marks of 2-10 (2007), 4-8 (2008), 5-7 (2009) and 4-8 (2010), the Blazers under Callaway seem only marginally closer to achieving their lofty gridiron goals.
UAB seems prepared to give Callaway at least one more opportunity to get it done in Birmingham, but it remains to be seen if his offseason changes in assistant coaches (including a new defensive coordinator for a D that ranked No. 94 in scoring) and aggressive recruiting will equal enough wins to save him.
Bob Toledo, Tulane
7 of 10
Years in Current Position: 4
Overall Record: 13-35-0
2010 Record: 4-8
After coaching the Green Wave to 4-8, 2-10 and 3-9 finishes, Bob Toledo came into 2010 declaring that the mark of a successful 2010 would be “going to a bowl game.”
A 4-8 finish (including a 2-6 mark in C-USA play) wasn’t quite what Dr. Toledo ordered and ranking No. 95 overall in scoring defense doesn’t inspire an abundance of confidence coming into 2011.
The Green Wave haven’t had a winning season since 2002, when they went 8-5 under then Coach Chris Scelfo. They haven’t been bowling since the same season, when they bested Hawai'i 36-28 in the Hawai'i Bowl.
Turning the tide for a Green Wave is no easy task, but my bet is Bob Toledo only has 2011 left to do it.
Paul Wulff, Washington State
8 of 10
Years in Current Position: 3
Overall Record: 5-32
2010 Record: 2-10
It’s hard to believe that going 5-32 over a three-season span equals continued employment.
Nevertheless, Paul Wulff appears to have at least another season left to spend in Pullman, Washington.
Wulff’s success at FCS Eastern Washington has proven hard to recreate at Washington State, but hopefully a fourth season is what Wulff needs to right the ship at WSU.
The Cougars have not experienced winning seasons since earning back to back 10-3 marks under Mike Price in 2002 and then Bill Doba in 2003.
Astonishingly, Washington State was the Pac-10 Conference Co-Champions and went to the Rose Bowl only eight short seasons ago.
A return to the BCS and a championship season are hardly on the cards for 2011. But it would be reasonable to think that Wulff needs to find five or six wins in 2011 to remain the head guy at Washington State.
Mike Locksley, New Mexico
9 of 10
Years in Current Position: 2
Overall Record: 2-22
2010 Record: 1-11
Ok, seriously, is Mike Locksley still at New Mexico?
Yes. He is.
Locksley was brought to New Mexico when the very successful Rocky Long (now the new head coach at San Diego State) resigned as the 2008 season ended (reportedly because he felt he was not the guy to take New Mexico to “the next level”).
Long was 65-69 all time at New Mexico and was 43-31 from 2001 to 2008, including five bowl appearances.
Locksley, who was most recently the OC at Illinois, has thus far won two games (over Colorado State in 2009 and then over Wyoming in 2010), been accused of sexual discrimination (these claims were later withdrawn) and created a stir (and a suspension) when he hit an assistant in 2009.
The reasoning behind his third season at New Mexico is purportedly that his contract buy-out is higher than what the university can manage.
Unfortunately, even if the Lobos show improvement in 2011, it will be difficult to convince the New Mexico fan base that Mike Locksley is the right guy to run their football program.
Just because you’re not USC or Tennessee doesn’t mean that it doesn’t matter that your football program is a mess.
Mark Richt, Georgia
10 of 10
Years in Current Position: 10
Overall Record: 96-34
2010 Record: 6-7
Mark Richt is another victim of his own success. Success breeds expectations, and when these are not met, failure (even minimal failure relative to great success) equals blame and sometimes removal.
Oh, how quickly everyone forgets nine consecutive winning seasons, three BCS bowls (2-1 record), four SEC East Division Crowns, two SEC Championships and ten consecutive bowl appearances.
And Mark Richt is in an entirely different situation than Mack Brown at Texas.
Why?
Well, first Brown has one the “big one” (i.e. the BCS National Title) and (2) Richt’s “decline” has lasted two seasons rather than just one (in both 2009 and 2010 Georgia finished the season out of the Top 25 for the first time since 1995 and 1996).
Wrapping up a painful 2010 campaign was a 10-6 loss to UCF in the Liberty Bowl. Providing a program like UCF (regardless of how good they really are) its first-ever bowl win in program history does nothing to help Richt's standing in Athens.
Richt is another guy who is hard to let go; you have to imagine he would land back on his feet rather quickly and that Georgia might be left wondering why they pushed him out the door.
Stranger things have happened.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
