College Football 2011-2012: Did Vegas Get Odds Right?
As we start to put the 2010 college football season behind us, the projections for the 2011 season pour in from all sorts of outlets.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas are no different.
The odds for the 2011 national championship are out, and like always, Vegas drops a heavy hand on a few of the power conference favorites.
The books were a bit too happy with a few of the traditional powerhouses for our liking, and you will not see Texas (20/1), Penn State (20/1) or Miami (50/1) on this list.
That said, here are the top 20 teams with the best shot to win next season's BCS national championship the way we see it.
20. Michigan State Spartans
1 of 20
What Vegas Says: 40/1
What We Say: 40/1
Edwin Baker and Le'Veon Bell, a productive pair of youngsters for the Spartans this season, return in the backfield.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins, who made big strides this season, will also return.
Their schedule though, features a treacherous slate of games throughout October that could be their undoing.
A trip to Ohio State starts the month, and then the Spartans return home against Michigan and Wisconsin before ending with a trip to Nebraska.
It will not be easy to run that gauntlet unscathed.
19. West Virginia Mountaineers
2 of 20
What Vegas Says: 30/1
What We Say: 35/1
The 2011 Mountaineers will feature a lot of Geno Smith, the quarterback who will have to carry them withthe losses of Noel Devine and Jock Sanders.
Defensively they will need to replace eight starters.
Trips to Cincinnati, Rutgers, USF and Syracuse make for a relatively easier Big East road schedule.
The Mountaineers will visit Maryland in what should be a good non-conference road clash and will get a shot at one of the nation's top teams, LSU, when they visit Morgantown in late September.
We drop them a bit from Vegas because they host a very, very good LSU team that they will have trouble defeating, but they have the best shot of coming out of the Big East.
18. TCU Horned Frogs
3 of 20
What Vegas Says: 20/1
What We Say: 35/1
The losses of Andy Dalton, Jeremy Kerley and Marcus Cannon on offense will be a lot to overcome.
This is TCU's last season in the Mountain West before joining the Big East.
They'll travel to Baylor and host SMU and Texas Tech in big non-conference matchups, but their biggest, and most important, game will be against Boise State, which is new to the conference.
The Vegas drop hinges on the fact that a pair of one-loss BCS qualifying teams still might have the edge over an undefeated TCU squad, even with the Boise State game.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
17. Virginia Tech Hokies
4 of 20
What Vegas Says: 28/1
What We Say: 35/1
Seven offensive starters and eight defensive starters will be returning, and Tech is always a threat to win the ACC.
Darren Evans and Ryan Williams decided it was time to move their games to the NFL; this hurts the Hokies, but not as much as the graduation of quarterback Tyrod Taylor.
Playmaking youngster David Wilson will have to assume a much larger role if the Hokies want any chance at another ACC title.
Two of the tougher ACC matchups, Miami and UNC, will be at home, they do not have to play NC State or Florida State in the regular season.
The non-conference schedule is weak - shouldn't say that after this past season (JMU) - but an undefeated ACC season could get them a shot at the title.
16. Florida Gators
5 of 20
What Vegas Says: 15/1
What We Say: 30/1
With two new big-time names on the sideline—head coach Will Muschamp and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis—the Gators will be better than last season.
Returning star Janoris Jenkins will lead the charge for the new Gator defense and he has the potential to be a big time player.
The Gators will play Alabama, Tennessee, and Georgia at home; three tough games, but the Gators should get two of the three.
On the road they will play Kentucky, LSU, Auburn, and South Carolina.
They will have a very difficult non-conference battle with Florida State, a favorite to win the ACC, to close the regular season and that could be a must-win game.
Plain and simple, Florida plays a very tough schedule.
15. South Carolina Gamecocks
6 of 20
What Vegas Says: 50/1
What We Say: 30/1
One of the nations leading receivers, Alshon Jeffrey, will return at wide out for the Gamecocks and their sensational running back, Marcus Lattimore, will only be a sophomore
The defense will need to replace some key starters on the front seven, but South Carolina should retool quickly.
The SEC has no easy schedules, and the Gamecocks will have to travel to Georgia, Mississippi State and Arkansas with home games against Auburn and Florida.
The Gamecocks have as much a chance at winning the SEC as the Gators do.
14. Wisconsin Badgers
7 of 20
What Vegas Says: 28/1
What We Say: 28/1
Montee Ball and James White will be the new featured duo in the Badger backfield.
A new quarterback, and a new set of offensive lineman will also be in the mix for a team that closed the regular season as strong as anyone before losing to TCU in the Rose Bowl.
With only four road games on the schedule, headlined by trips to Ohio State and Michigan State, the Badgers should have a chance to get things in order fairly quickly despite replacing so many contributors.
The Wisconsin schedule gives the Badgers a legitimate shot.
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys
8 of 20
What Vegas Says: 30/1
What We Say: 28/1
Biletnikoff Award winner Justin Blackmon and quarterback Brandon Weeden will be returning to Stillwater next season, which is fantastic news for the Oklahoma State Cowboys; their offense was one of the best in the country a year ago.
They do lose extremely productive running back Kendall Hunter though, and his experience and play-making ability will be missed.
Defensively they will have their work cut out for them as they only return five starters from a unit that was not all that great.
The non-conference schedule does not stack up much talent, but they will get a visit from Arizona in week two.
Big 12 could knock the Pokes down a bit with road games against Missouri, Texas and Texas A&M.
The Oklahoma State offense, though, will give them a good shot at not only being involved in all those games, but winning those games as well.
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
9 of 20
What Vegas Says: 30/1
What We Say: 25/1
With star wide receiver Michael Floyd back, the Irish are flying higher than they expected. Whether Coach Brian Kelly decides on last year's injured starter, Dayne Crist, or his replacement, Tommy Rees, at quarterback, they will be very happy to have Floyd on the outside.
An improving defense will return eight starters and Floyd's return gives Notre Dame nine on offense.
They will have a tough schedule next season, playing eight 2010 bowl teams, but none too dominant.
The Irish get Michigan State and USC at home but will have to travel to Palo Alto at season's end to play Stanford.
11. Arkansas Razorbacks
10 of 20
What Vegas Says: 30/1
What We Say: 25/1
At first glance it looks like the Razorbacks could be in trouble, but the return of running back Knile Davis and Greg Childs (from injury) will be big boosts to an offense that lost it's leader.
Tyler Wilson, the new quarterback, got some key playing time in a few games this season and looks like he could be the real deal.
Arkansas' defense was better than expected a season ago and should continue to get better. If they do, they could be more forceful in the SEC than anticipated.
The Hogs play only four road games next season, but unfortunately they will have to travel to Alabama and LSU, as well as face Texas A&M in Arlington.
10. Nebraska Cornhuskers
11 of 20
What Vegas Says: 18/1
What We Say: 20/1
Young quarterback Taylor Martinez got some much needed experience this season; he excelled at times and look awful others. His performance in 2011 will be crucial.
The Cornhuskers' first season in the Big Ten will feature some of its toughest opponents: Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa at home with Wisconsin and Penn State on the road.
None of those opponents, however, should be too dominant, and Nebraska has to be considered one of the favorites for the conference title.
Their presence in the Big Ten will not go unnoticed and while they have not faced these teams on a consistent basis like the rest of the conference, their talent level pushes them above many.
9. Texas A&M Aggies
12 of 20
What Vegas Says: 35/1
What We Say: 20/1
Cyrus Gray and Ryan Tannehill return to lead the Aggie offense next season.
If wide receiver Jeff Fuller returns as well, they will have 10 returning starters on the offensive side of the ball.
Defensively they get back nine starters and despite the heavy loss of Von Miller, they should still be very good.
A non-conference battle against Arkansas highlights a pre-Big 12 schedule and should feature two very dangerous teams that the traditional powerhouses in their respective conferences will have to watch out for.
Big 12 play will not be kind, they travel to Oklahoma, but get Oklahoma State, Texas and Missouri at home.
8. Ohio State Buckeyes
13 of 20
What Vegas Says: 20/1
What We Say: 18/1
With five of Ohio State's biggest players suspended for the first five games, it will be interesting to see how their replacements stand up.
Defensively they lose a few key players but should be able to recuperate rather quickly with the vast recruiting classes they typically bring in.
Home games against Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State and road battles with Nebraska and Michigan highlight the Buckeyes' Big Ten schedule, but that is not all that difficult.
They have to be considered favorites for the conference with Nebraska.
7. Florida State Seminoles
14 of 20
What Vegas Says: 10/1
What We Say: 15/1
Coach Jimbo Fisher is returning nine starters on both sides of the football, but most importantly, quarterback E.J. Manuel got some vital experience this season.
The Seminoles have a big non-conference matchup at home with Oklahoma that could decide their fate early in the season, and even if they lose, they'll still be favorite for the ACC.
They will not have to face conference rivals Georgia Tech, North Carolina or Virginia Tech this season unless they meet in the ACC championship game.
A weak conference schedule could doom them if they lose early and must prove they belong coming out of the ACC.
6. Boise State Broncos
15 of 20
What Vegas Says: 12/1
What We Say: 15/1
A lot of losses on offense and defense will hurt some, but with Kellen Moore back, along with Doug Martin, they will still be a dangerous team.
They do move to the Mountain West this season and will have a new cast of enemies, but they should be able to handle their conference schedule until they face TCU.
The Broncos open the season against Georgia in the Georgia Dome with another chance to catch the nation's eye early.
The TCU game on the road will probably make or break the season and Boise State's chances at a title shot.
The Horned Frogs will not be the same team they were this season and that could be a game that Boise gets a chance to dominate.
5. Stanford Cardinal
16 of 20
What Vegas Says: 25/1
What We Say: 14/1
Andrew Luck returns in what could be another big season for the Tree.
They recently bumped former offensive coordinator, David Shaw, into the head coaching vacancy left by Jim Harbaugh.
The Cardinal will only have four returning starters on offense with seven on defense, but Luck is the most important factor.
Stanford will open the season will a relatively easy schedule aside from a trip to Arizona in mid-September.
The meat of the schedule though, features home games with Oregon, California and Notre Dame and road games at USC and Oregon State.
4. Oregon Ducks
17 of 20
What Vegas Says: 14/1
What We Say: 12/1
LaMichael James, Darron Thomas, and Kenjon Barner highlight the returning Ducks offense in 2011.
Defensively they lose some talent, but Cliff Harris has a chance to be special at the cornerback position and they should welcome some talented players in their recruiting class.
The Ducks open the season with a huge game against LSU at Cowboys Stadium, a game that could shape a lot of the season.
Aside from that though, they play only four true road games, the toughest of which will be in Palo Alto against Stanford.
A run through the Pac-12 will not be easy though.
3. LSU Tigers
18 of 20
What Vegas Says: 12/1
What We Say: 10/1
A offense returning 10 starters will be tough to beat in the SEC.
The Tiger defense, will return eight very good starters as well.
LSU opens the season in a mighty clash with Oregon at Cowboys Stadium.
The battle in Arlington could very well set in the motion the way both teams play for the rest of the season.
Following that, an SEC schedule is always tough, but LSU plays Florida, Auburn and Arkansas at home with games on the road against Alabama and Tennessee.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
19 of 20
What Vegas Says: 15/2
What We Say: 15/2
A young Nick Saban team underachieved in 2010, but they will be back in force in 2011.
Linebacker Dont'a Hightower and safety Mark Barron are two of the big names going back to Tuscaloosa, and running back Trent Richardson proved he can be a beast.
The Tide visit Happy Valley in a non-conference battle with Penn State before starting their SEC schedule, but that should be a stepping stone for this team.
Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU all visit Tuscaloosa, and the Tide will travel to Florida and Mississippi State while closing the regular season at Auburn in the Iron Bowl.
In 2009, when the Tide won it all, there concerns about quarterback play. We saw how that turned out, this team could be very similar once the signal caller is chosen.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
20 of 20
What Vegas Says: 7/2
What We Say: 7/2
Linebacker Travis Lewis highlights the Sooner defense for next season while quarterback Landy Jones and wide receiver Ryan Broyles could put Heisman numbers in 2011 on offense.
The Sooners will play Florida State in a non-conference clash in the third week of the season to set the tone before getting into conference play.
The Big 12 schedule gives Oklahoma home games against Missouri and Texas A&M; two very winnable games that the Sooners cannot choke on if they want to be great.
Conference road games against Oklahoma State and Baylor at the end of the season could prove to be tough battles as both teams return experienced and talented quarterbacks with good offenses around them.
The Sooners almost always look good on paper, they need to prove it right away with a statement win over Florida State.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
