BCS Championship Game 2011: A Preliminary Look at Auburn and Oregon On Defense

During the course of this week, there is more and more information coming out about Auburn and Oregon.

By now, everyone knows that these two teams are fairly potent on the offensive side of the ball; some have tried to convince fans that the same is true on the defensive side of the ball.

Every team has a weakness and for this year’s BCS Championship Game the weakness for both teams is largely on defense.

It is time to take a look at both defenses, what these defensive weaknesses are and what they might mean.

Rushing Defense Statistical Comparison

Statistic	Auburn	Oregon
Rushing Defense Rank Nationally	10	16
Rushing Plays Defended	416	424
Rushing Yards Allowed	1452 yards	1411 yards
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed	16	12
Rushing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game	1.23	1
Yards Allowed Per Rushing Play	3.49 yards	3.33 yards

While these defensive statistics look fairly impressive for both teams on the surface, it always helps to take a look at what teams these statistics were accumulated on.

Oregon’s average opponent ranked 65th in rushing production and Auburn’s average opponent ranked 54th.

This is not a huge difference in a sampling of 120 teams, but it is significant.

The worst performances by Oregon were against Tennessee, Arizona State and Stanford, where the teams simply ran the ball up the middle. Tauren Poole of Tennessee had 162 yards, Deantre Lewis of Arizona State had 127 yards and Stephan Taylor of Stanford had 113 yards in these games.

Oregon only allowed four touchdowns in these games, despite allowing so many yards; Oregon allowed 8.28 yards per carry in these games.

Auburn has a very effective inside rushing attack led by Michael Dyer. Fans can expect Auburn to attempt to duplicate the performances of Stanford, Arizona State and Tennessee in this game.

The worst performances by Auburn were against Clemson and Mississippi, where the two teams attacked the perimeter with very fast athletes. Andre Ellington for Clemson had 140 yards and Jeff Scott of Mississippi had 134 yards.

In both cases over 100 of the yards gained were when rushing outside. Ellington averaged 6.4 yards per carry and scored a touchdown for Clemson and Scott averaged 14.9 yards per carry and scored a touchdown for Mississippi. Auburn allowed 5.7 yards per carry in these games.

Some will allude to the point that the best performances by these rushing defenses might be due to something other than skillful play. One ongoing theory is that often a great performance against the rush can be a side effect of a poor performance against the pass.

Oregon had one excellent performance against the rush when facing a good team. They also had exceptional performances against New Mexico (one of the worst teams in FBS Football), Washington State (The worst team in the Pac 10) and Portland State (an FCS team).

Their other lone exceptional performance was against Arizona, where they gave up 448 passing yards.

While this might seem to confirm the theory, closer inspection is needed. Arizona ran the ball 27 times in that game and gained 58 yards on the ground. This is an average of 2.15 yards per carry. It is more likely that Arizona passed the ball due to a lack of ability to move it on the ground.

Auburn’s best performances came in games with South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. South Carolina had 305 yards passing in that first game and averaged 2.4 yards per carry rushing the ball; Georgia had 274 yards passing and averaged 3.38 yards per carry rushing the ball; Alabama had 377 yards passing and averaged 2.3 yards per carry rushing the ball.

It is unlikely any of these teams abandoned the rush simply due to poor pass defense.

Conclusion

Both teams have strong rushing defenses that are weakest where their upcoming opponent is best equipped to exploit it.

Oregon should have some success rushing the ball on the perimeter and Auburn should have some success with the inside running game.

Pass Defense Statistical Comparison

Statistic	Auburn	Oregon
Pass Defense Rank Nationally	106	51
Pass Plays Defended	474	454
Passing Yards Allowed	3256 yards	2568 yards
Passing Touchdowns Allowed	23	13
Passing Touchdowns Allowed Per Game	1.77	1.08
Yards Allowed Per Pass Play	6.87 yards	5.66 yards
Yards Allowed Per Completion	10.96 yards	10.57 yards
Completion Percentage Allowed	63 percent	54 percent
Pass Plays Per Touchdown Allowed	20.61	34.92

On the surface, these two pass defenses look pretty pathetic; in fact, Auburn looks downright awful.

The average opponent Oregon faced was ranked 58th in pass production and 65th in pass efficiency. Oregon faced one opponent ranked in the top 10 in pass efficiency and one opponent ranked in the top 25.  

Oregon had no games where they held a good passing offense under 200 yards of production.

Oregon allowed 300 passing yards or more to three teams. Their average pass efficiency ranking was 32. It would seem Oregon did exactly as expected on pass defense: They gave up large chunks of yardage to good passing offenses and made other teams earn their yardage according to their abilities.

The average opponent Auburn faced was ranked 48th in pass production and 44th in pass efficiency. They faced two opponents ranked in the top 10 in pass efficiency and five opponents in the top 25 in pass efficiency.

Auburn had one game where they held a good passing offense under 200 yards of production.

Auburn allowed four teams to gain more than 300 yards of passing offense in a game. Their average pass efficiency rank was 22. Auburn did exactly as most would expect on the season: They were gashed for large chunks of yards by good passing offenses and held others in proportion to their abilities with one exception.

In Auburn’s last outing, they were able to hold a top 25 pass efficiency offense to under 200 yards of production.

Conclusion

These are two serviceable pass defenses, but neither is spectacular. Neither Auburn nor Oregon runs a defensive scheme that is focused on stopping the passing attack.

In short: They are content with making opponents earn their passing yards according to their abilities.

Both teams have been very vulnerable to receivers that were tall and physical. With Auburn being ranked first in the nation in pass efficiency and having no shortage of tall and physical receivers, this could be a big factor in this game.

Oregon is ranked 16th in passing efficiency and they can be expected to have success with their perimeter passing attack. Their receivers are not especially tall or physical, but they are effective in this type of scheme.

Oregon will likely have average success with their passing attack.

Below, fans can find the statistical comparisons for the opponents faced by both teams this season.  

Rushing Statics for Opponents Faced:

Auburn Opponent Rushing Statistics	Oregon Opponent Rushing Statistics
Arkansas State Ranked 69 Nationally Gained 43 Yards on Auburn	New Mexico Ranked 106 Nationally Gained 82 Yards on Oregon
Mississippi State Ranked 16 Nationally Gained 117 Yards on Auburn	Tennessee Ranked 105 Nationally Gained 182 Yards Rushing on Oregon
Clemson Ranked 79 Nationally Gained 187 Yards on Auburn	Portland State Ranked 18 FCS Gained 74 Yards on Oregon
South Carolina Ranked 60 Nationally Gained 79 Yards on Auburn	Arizona State Ranked 78 Nationally Gained 210 Yards on Oregon
Louisiana Monroe Ranked 96 Nationally Gained 38 Yards on Auburn	Stanford Ranked 17 Nationally Gained 177 Yards on Oregon
Kentucky Ranked 47 Nationally Gained 110 Yards on Auburn	Washington State Ranked 117 Nationally Gained 91 Yards on Oregon
Arkansas Ranked 65 Nationally Gained 138 Yards on Auburn	UCLA Ranked 32 Nationally Gained 131 Yards on Oregon
LSU Ranked 31 Nationally Gained 115 Yards on Auburn	Southern California Ranked 25 Nationally Gained 113 Yards on Oregon
Mississippi Ranked 19 Nationally Gained 218 Yards on Auburn	Washington Ranked 38 Nationally Gained 136 Yards on Oregon
Chattanooga Ranked 52 FCS Gained 101 Yards on Auburn	California Ranked 52 Nationally Gained 124 Yards on Oregon
Georgia Ranked 73 Nationally Gained 81 Yards on Auburn	Arizona Ranked 89 Nationally Gained 58 Yards on Oregon
Alabama Ranked 29 Nationally Gained 69 Yards on Auburn	Oregon State Ranked 97 Nationally Gained 90 Yards on Oregon
South Carolina Ranked 60 Nationally Gained 156 Yards on Auburn
Average Opponent Rank Rushing Auburn 54	Average Opponent Rank Rushing Oregon 65
Games where more than 150 rushing yards were allowed for Auburn. Clemson Mississippi	Games where more than 150 rushing yards were allowed Oregon. Tennessee Arizona State Stanford
Games where opponents were held under 100 yards rushing Auburn. Arkansas State South Carolina Louisiana Monroe Georgia Alabama	Games where opponents were held under 100 yards Oregon. New Mexico Portland State Washington State Arizona

Opponents Faced Pass Defense Ranking

Auburn Passing Opponents	Oregon Passing Opponents
Arkansas State Ranked 31 Nationally Gained 323 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 57 in Pass Efficiency	New Mexico Ranked 106 Nationally Gained 82 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 116 in Pass Efficiency
Mississippi State Ranked 86 Nationally Gained 129 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 37 in Pass Efficiency	Tennessee Ranked 30 Nationally Gained 151 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 41 in Pass Efficiency
Clemson Ranked 78 Nationally Gained 220 yards on Auburn They are Ranked 99 in Pass Efficiency	Portland State Ranked 62 FCS Gained 66 Yards on Oregon
South Carolina Ranked 43 Nationally Gained 305 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 21 in Pass Efficiency	Arizona State Ranked 15 Nationally Gained 387 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 56 in Pass Efficiency
Louisiana Monroe Ranked 56 Nationally Gained 232 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 69 in Pass Efficiency	Stanford Ranked 29 Nationally Gained 341 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 7 in Pass Efficiency
Kentucky Ranked 22 Nationally Gained 226 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 22 in Pass Efficiency	Washington State Ranked 41 Nationally Gained 245 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 53 in Pass Efficiency
Arkansas Ranked 4 Nationally Gained 428 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 4 in Pass Efficiency	UCLA Ranked 116 Nationally Gained 159 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 118 in Pass Efficiency
LSU Ranked 107 Nationally Gained 128 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 100 in Pass Efficiency	Southern California Ranked 40 Nationally Gained 264 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 46 in Pass Efficiency
Mississippi Ranked 83 Nationally Gained 189 on Auburn They are Ranked 81 in Pass Efficiency	Washington Ranked 84 Nationally Gained 127 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 83 in Pass Efficiency
Chattanooga Ranked 5 FBS Gained 233 on Auburn	California Ranked 95 Nationally Gained 69 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 89 in Pass Efficiency
Georgia Ranked 39 Nationally Gained 273 Yards on Auburn They are Ranked 14 in Pass Efficiency	Arizona Ranked 9 Nationally Gained 448 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 33 in Pass Efficiency
Alabama Ranked 27 Nationally Gained 377 yards on Auburn They are Ranked 5 in Pass Efficiency	Oregon State Ranked 72 Nationally Gained 229 Yards on Oregon They are Ranked 75 in Pass Efficiency
South Carolina Ranked 43 Nationally Gained 193 on Auburn They are Ranked 21 in Pass Efficiency
Average Opponent Passing Production Rank 48	Average Opponent Passing Production Rank 58
Average Opponent Pass Efficiency Rank 44	Average Opponent Pass Efficiency Rank 65
Teams Limited to 200 Yards or Less Production Mississippi State Pass Efficiency Rank 37 LSU Pass Efficiency Rank 100 Mississippi Pass Efficiency Rank 81 South Carolina (Second Game) Pass Efficiency Rank 21	Teams Limited to 200 Yards or Less Production New Mexico Pass Efficiency Rank 116 Tennessee Pass Efficiency Rank 41 Portland State Pass Efficiency Rank (FCS Team) UCLA Pass Efficiency Rank 118 Washington Pass Efficiency Rank 83 California Pass Efficiency Rank 89
Teams Allowed 300 Passing Yards or More Arkansas State Ranked 57 in Pass Efficiency South Carolina Ranked 21 in Pass Efficiency Arkansas Ranked 4 in Pass Efficiency Alabama Ranked 5 in Pass Efficiency	Teams Allowed 300 Passing Yards or More Arizona State Ranked 56 in Pass Efficiency Stanford Ranked 7 in Pass Efficiency Arizona Ranked 33 in Pass Efficiency