Rich Rodriguez Reportedly Fired: Is This the Right Move for Michigan?

Fox2 in Detroit is reporting that Michigan's head-man, Rich Rodriguez is out.  While this comes as no big surprise to many football fans—and is somewhat of a relief to many Michigan fans—is it the right decision?

What's next for a storied program that was once a kingpin in the college football landscape, but has fallen on hard times of late? 

First, it's important to note that no decision has officially been announced.  That decision likely won't be announced until Wednesday.

Though I've voiced my opinion that Rich Rodriguez should go at Michigan, I'm not so sure it was actually the wisest choice, yet.

Rodriguez was halfway there

The Wolverines weren't on life support.  This program was in need of a good dose of antibiotics, but it wasn't in any threat of dying. 

Rich Rodriguez's team finished third in the Big Ten in scoring offense.  It also finished third in rushing offense.  It finished second in passing offense, and it finished first in total offense.

In a nutshell, the offense was working just the way Rich Rod designed it to.  He proved that, even in a conference that brags about having such strong defenses, his system could move the ball and put points on the board.

It was the defense that needed help.

The Michigan defense was dead last in total defense in the Big Ten and near the bottom in virtually every major statistical category.  Greg Robinson failed in two years to put together a defense capable of stopping the bowl-you-over offenses of the Big Ten.

Was that Rodriguez's fault?  Yes it was.  Does that mean Rodriguez had to go?  That depends.

Michigan AD Dave Brandon could have pulled rank and took it upon himself to fire Robinson and hire his successor at Ann Arbor.  Maybe he could have found someone who understood that small-but-quick doesn't always work unless "small" can also take down "big" bruising running backs and receivers and get around quicker-than-you'd-expect linemen.

Could that have been done in one year?  I don't know, but it wouldn't have had to have taken any longer than two years with the right coordinator running the defense.  There's nothing saying that you can't have a high-octane spread-option offense with a hard-nosed, smash-mouth defense. 

Had the Wolverines found that balance, they could have become a very fearsome group in just a couple of years.

The caveat to that argument is: how many Pat White's and Denard Robinson's are out there that Rodriguez can convince to come to Ann Arbor?  Perhaps there are more than I realize, and that would be great, but if not, Rodriguez's offense could start to sputter as well in just a few years.  Plus, the longer it took to figure out the defensive coordinator position, the longer Michigan would have peaked at second-tier in the Big Ten.

Harbaugh may not want to come to Michigan

I've read several boards since this story started breaking earlier today and the theme seems to be the same:  "Good riddance.  Now maybe we can get Harbaugh in here to clean this mess up." 

Not so fast my blue-and-maize friends. 

As Fox also points out, Harbaugh is likely getting several offers from the NFL—potentially including San Francisco and Denver.  If you're thinking that he'll pass up NFL money to come back to his alma mater, you might be in for a letdown.

While there's no doubt that Harbaugh will always have a soft spot in his heart for Wolverine football—a feeling that is undoubtedly reciprocated—that relationship has also been somewhat strained. 

Does he really want to go back and try to "fix" everything that he sees wrong with the Michigan program, while under unbelievable pressure to produce in a hurry, when he has potentially easier and more lucrative offers available?

Right now, his "draft stock" is sky high.  He can practically punch his own meal ticket at the college level and will turn a lot of heads at the pro level.  However, if he returned to Michigan and—for whatever reason—failed to turn the program around...

Well, let's just say, his stock would plummet as quickly as any senior who comes up with a pathetic final season.  Some may still give him a real glance, but his options become far less attractive.

I would lean more toward the notion that Harbaugh will not return to Michigan than I would that he will.

So then who?

San Diego State's Brady Hoke's name has been mentioned as a runner-up for the position if Harbaugh turns it down. 

As a former Michigan assistant, he's an obvious choice.  He's a "Michigan Man" who well knows Michigan's history, who respects their rivalries, and who would have the support of the fans more so than Rodriguez did.

However, can Hoke handle the pressure at Michigan as the head man?  It's a suffocating atmosphere where success is expected almost immediately.  Does he want to deal with that?  What if he also fails?

If not Hoke, then who?

That's the million-dollar question.  If the Wolverines continue to search for a "Michigan Man," their options become somewhat limited.  If they open the doors (and their arms) to someone outside of the Wolverine family, but who knows how to turn around a program in a hurry, then they might be able to find a suitable candidate quickly.

Patience is still the key

Michigan painted themselves into a corner with Rich Rod's hire back in 2008.  If he worked out as advertised, great.  If not...

Now Michigan has a tough decision to make.  If they find another coach who is spread-minded, the "rebuilding" process may be more of a "retooling" process.  It will still come down to getting a good DC and getting the players coached up to perform at this level.

If they return to their more recent roots and go back to being a smash-mouth, pro-style team, then they'll have to rebuild from the ground up.  There's no way of really getting around it.

The players Rodriguez recruited to Michigan are suited for his style of football.  They're light and quick.  They can bulk up a bit in the weight room, but can they completely learn a new-old system? 

It's far easier in some regards to just recruit the type of players that are already well versed in a pro-style system.  However, that takes time.  In just a couple of years there could be quantifiable results.  However, it could take as many as four years to fully get the benefit of what a coach is trying to do.

That's one year longer than RichRod got at Michigan. 

Michigan fans and alums will have to accept the fact that if they don't get another spread coach, it's going to be another four-to-five years before the program reaches its full potential.  That's another potential 4-8, or even (gulp) 3-9 season to endure, along with a follow-up season or two that sees no more than five or six wins.

What now?

With Rodriguez out, one thing is almost certain: Michigan won't be challenging for a Big Ten championship in 2011.  It's likely they won't in 2012 either.

However, the program can get back to its roots and build itself back up to a national power.  I'm not convinced RichRod would have ever found the right key to make that happen.  How soon they reach that pinnacle depends entirely on who they hire to replace Rodriguez and who that person brings in as coordinators.

Remember, even Harbaugh didn't turn Stanford around until he had the right people in place around him. 

What now, Michigan?  If Rodriguez is truly out as the head man, is that the right choice?

The answer to that question is likely still four or five years away.  Hope you can wait that long.