BCS National Championship: Does Auburn or Oregon Have the Defensive Edge?
The BCS National Championship Game is still another week away, but the analysis and anticipation are heating up as the big night in Glendale, Ariz., approaches. The top two teams in all of college football are entering their final week of preparation for the big game, as the Auburn Tigers and Oregon Ducks march toward a dream matchup of two extremely high-powered offenses that have dazzled and entertained college football fans all season long.
Much of the pregame buildup is focused on how this game may rival the epic Texas-USC national title game that ended up having a final score of 41-38 and was basically all offense, all the time. When talents like Auburn's Cam Newton and Oregon's LaMichael James are involved, points and offense are going to get the most attention.
However, despite the prolific natures of Auburn and Oregon's defenses, the BCS National Championship Game may come down to which defense holds strong at a key point and keeps points off the board.
Instead of continuing to discuss the elite talents on offense for each team, we're going to instead take a closer look at each school's defense and try to decide which title contender has the edge on that side of the ball. Here's a close look at the defenses of both Auburn and Oregon to get you ready for next week's title game.
Auburn's Nick Fairley, an Elite Playmaker
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If Auburn is going to slow down the high-speed, high-flying Oregon Ducks offense, they are going to need a big game from their premiere defensive player: defensive lineman Nick Fairley. Fairley is considered a legitimate NFL prospect who could be selected in the top 10 of this coming year's draft. He has enjoyed a sterling season for Auburn, putting up 21 tackles for a loss while also (unofficially) recording 10.5 sacks.
Fairley is the key backfield presence charged with penetrating and disrupting plays before they get started. Given Oregon's speed, Auburn absolutely has to have a big game from Fairley if they're to contain the Ducks attack. Oregon doesn't have a player of his caliber on their defense, so this is an edge for Auburn.
Slumping at the Wrong Time
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The Auburn defense struggled down the stretch of a very tough SEC schedule. Their final eight games were hardly inspiring defensive efforts, and they were often behind in games early and ultimately required big efforts from stellar quarterback Cam Newton to lead the team back from deficits created at least partly by a middling defense.
Auburn's defense allowed an average of 28 points a game in the final eight games of the 2010 regular season, with their last memorably strong performance coming in their victory over LSU back on October 23.
The defense showed improvement against South Carolina in the SEC Championship game, and they'll need to ramp up their production even further if they're to slow down Oregon.
The Need To Rotate Vs. Oregon Speed
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Oregon has depth along the defensive line in particular, but it's very young, and those players will be thrust into larger roles in the BCS National Championship Game due to the need to make sure that everyone is fresh and not gasping for air against the seemingly three seconds or less-tempo Oregon offense.
Along the defensive line, star Nick Fairley is joined by stalwarts Antoine Carter and Zach Clayton, and they make up the backbone of the Auburn defense. However, given how fast-paced the last game of the year promises to be, depth along the line will be key, especially since so much of what Auburn looks to accomplish on defense stems from their defensive line.
Players like Jeff Whitaker, Corey Lemonier and Kenneth Carter will be asked to step up on a huge national stage, and their handling of the situations they're thrust into will be a big key to Auburn's defensive success.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Stopping the Run Is Paramount
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Auburn's focus on defense all season long has been stopping the run, and their defensive performance is greatly split between success against the run and little-to-no success against the pass. Nationally, they were ranked 11th overall in terms of rushing defense, an impressive figure, considering their pass defense only ranked 105th in the country.
Considering Oregon's most dynamic player is running back LaMichael James, who is unbelievably quick out of the backfield, Auburn has to live up to their run-stuffing reputation if they're going to prevail in Glendale.
The fact that they've been so good against the run all year has to be a good sign for the Tigers defense.
Secondary Has To Keep Action in Front of Them
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Auburn has been decimated by opposing passing games all season long. Their defensive backs have hardly forced any turnovers, accounting for only five of the team's 10 total interceptions on the season. They have tried to overhaul the secondary midseason through promoting players like sophomore T'Sharvan Bell into a starting role, and it's worked with some moderate success.
Oregon is not known for having burners at wide receiver, but they have physical and disciplined receivers like Jeff Maehl, who set a school record with 12 touchdown receptions this year.
The key for an unimpressive Auburn secondary will be keeping plays in front of them and not getting burned on long completions. It's safe to assume there will be openings for Oregon, but cutting down the big plays and making open-field tackles could go a long way for Auburn's secondary.
Oregon Must Stuff Cam Newton's Running Lanes
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Auburn quarterback Cam Newton has thrived running the ball, and while a lot of the credit goes to his own physical gifts as a big, strong running quarterback, his offensive line is also a huge factor. They start four seniors and one junior along the offensive line, and it's a seasoned and extremely solid group that has opened up gaping holes for Newton to pound through and gain chunks of yardage, as evidenced by his 10 yards per carry average on the season.
For Oregon, their defensive line actually did a great job against the run all season long, allowing an average of 117 rushing yards against per game and holding opposing runners to an average of 3.3 yards per carry. They may not have faced as solid an offensive line as Auburn's, nor a runner as imposing as Newton. But it's a huge factor in deciding the BCS National Championship Game to see which line wins the battle in the trenches, Auburn's O-line or Oregon's D-line.
Don't Let Auburn Chew up Yardage
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The Oregon defense didn't allow many points on the season, posting a solid 18 points per game-allowed average that ranked them in the top 20 nationally. However, Oregon was prone to giving up chunks of yardage in games and frequently found themselves in high-scoring affairs.
The root of the problem may be Oregon's linebacker squad, which is solid but unspectacular and led by seniors Casey Matthews (brother of Green Bay Packers star Clay Matthews) and Spencer Paysinger. Matthews only recorded 73 tackles on the season, and he was the team's leading tackler, so there are some issues in terms of corralling opposing offensive players once they break past the line of scrimmage.
For Oregon, their linebackers will need to step up and stop Auburn from ripping off hundreds of yards on offense. In Oregon's worst games on defense they allowed 500 total yards against, which occurred three different times in 2010. They can't expect to win if Auburn is allowed to run that wild in the BCS National Championship Game.
Use the Secondary's Speed To Harrass Cam Newton
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Oregon has some extremely talented athletes in their secondary, led by second team All-American Cliff Harris, a sophomore cornerback who enjoyed a great season, recording five interceptions and 15 passes defended.
Another standout is free safety John Boyett, also a sophomore and also a defensive back who recorded five interceptions on the season. He and Harris make an imposing tandem in the secondary that could be a big plus for Oregon's chances of slowing down the Auburn offense.
Oregon is extremely aggressive in bringing pressure from the edges, and that's because they have the speed in the secondary to avoid getting burned in coverage when bringing pressure. Auburn may be forced to provide additional protection for Cam Newton if defensive-back blitzes prove successful early in the game.
Also, Harris excels greatly in coverage, so it's possible that Cam Newton's favorite passing target, Darvin Adams, may be limited in terms of being open, which could frustrate Newton and force him into questionable throws.
Forcing Turnovers Could Be Key for the Oregon Defense
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The games in which Auburn's offense has struggled the most were the ones in which Cam Newton was forced into turnovers. One of Oregon's undeniable strengths on defense is forcing their opponents into coughing up the ball. They finished the regular season with a plus-13 turnover ratio, which is a big plus for their defense and has to be part of the focus on how to stop Auburn's attack.
If they can get Newton or other Auburn offensive playmakers to turn the ball over, it would be a huge swing in favor of the Ducks and give their potent offense even more chances of putting points on the board. It may come down, ultimately, to which team wins the turnover battle, and Oregon's defense has to like its chances to win that statistical battle.
Survive Cam Newton's Big Play(s)
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It's almost unavoidable: Auburn quarterback Cam Newton is going to end up making one or more big plays in the BCS National Championship Game, no matter how strong the Oregon Ducks defense is come January 10th.
The key for Oregon will be withstanding the flood of electricity that comes with Newton's offensive abilities. He may break off a big run or complete a deep pass to one of his receivers when faced with an Oregon run-stuffing package, but for Oregon, it's all about endurance and fortitude.
They have to know their offense is just as capable of breaking off huge gaining plays, and have to keep battling and hitting and flustering Newton throughout the game, no matter how things are going. Their ability to withstand the adversity sure to come with facing such a great offensive talent will be a difference maker.
Conclusion: Auburn's Defense Well-Suited for the Ducks Offense
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When looking at both Auburn and Oregon's defenses, I think that Auburn is best suited for the opposing offense. Oregon generates so much of their yardage and pressure on offense by pounding their opponents on the ground via LaMichael James and the run-pass threat of quarterback Darron Thomas.
Auburn's biggest strength on defense is stopping the run, and they have enough decent defensive backs and linebackers to contain the second layer once Oregon's offensive players break through the line of scrimmage.
Auburn also, to me, has the single-best defensive player involved in the game in lineman Nick Fairley. I think he is going to be the X-factor in the final college football game of the season, and I expect him to be a menace in the Oregon backfield.
While I give Oregon a definite edge in the secondary thanks to their speed and ball-hawking defensive backs, I also give Auburn an edge in terms of defensive lines. The linebacker corps are a wash, and ultimately I think Auburn's defense is made just slightly better by having a player of Fairley's caliber on defense.
I think this game will live up to the high-scoring expectations, but I think Auburn's defense ultimately does enough to slow down the Oregon Ducks' high-powered offense and pulls out a victory late in the fourth quarter.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
