BCS National Championship: 10 Scenarios Oregon Doesn't Want to See
On Monday, January the 10th, the Oregon Ducks will make their second trip in 10 years to a BCS bowl game in Glendale, Arizona.
Hoping to repeat the success that they had in 2001 against future Pac-12 foe Colorado, the Ducks landed in the Grand Canyon State yesterday to undergo final preparations for the biggest game in Oregon football history.
While all of Duck Nation is full of hope and optimism for their team, as a Duck fan, I myself have been charged with exploring the scenarios that could spell disaster for Oregon next Monday.
So reluctantly I present you with the 10 scenarios Oregon doesn't want to see at the National Championship Game.
10. Off-Field Trouble with the Law, the NCAA or Coach Kelly
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With Chip Kelly winning several Coach of the Year awards and molding the Ducks into the finely-tuned machine that they have been all year, it's easy to forget the turmoil that was Oregon's 2010 offseason.
During the spring, it seemed like every day you would hear something about an Oregon player being busted for burglary, weed, fighting, DUI, aggressive car key retrieval or loitering (I made that last one up).
It would be a nightmare to morale and momentum for an Oregon player to get into some sort of trouble while preparing for the game in Glendale, but it wouldn't be unheard of.
This stuff happens all the time to full-grown adults at the Super Bowl, and these are essentially children under tremendous pressure.
I believe, however, that Coach Kelly and coach Gene Chizik have their teams in the right mental state and this will not happen.
Odds of a Duck player breaking bad in Arizona: 1 in 1,000
9. Duck Receiving Corps Doesn't Bring Its A Game
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With the battle between Oregon's O-line and Auburn's D-line being a push on paper, the Ducks' success on offense will weigh heavily on the ability of their receivers to get open quickly and make big plays.
The fact that Auburn's secondary is ranked 106th in the country, coupled with all eyes being on stopping Doak Walker Award-winning running back LaMichael James, means an effective passing game could be Oregon's best chance at putting enough points on the board to beat the Tigers.
While Oregon's receivers Jeff Maehl (Sr., WR, 6'1", 184), Lavasier Tuinei (Sr., WR, 6'5", 206), D.J. Davis (Sr., WR, 6'1", 205) and David Paulson (Jr., TE, 6'4", 241) have been outstanding this season, they haven't been without their share of missed opportunities from dropped, catchable passes.
A few of these throughout the season won't kill you and are even to be expected, but in a match that's sure to be as close as they come, Oregon will need to capitalize on every opportunity afforded to them by QB Darron Thomas.
My guess is that Maehl and his crew will take advantage of one of Auburn's only weaknesses and Oregon will have success through the air.
Odds of Oregon's Receivers Developing Butterfingers: 1 in 2300
8. It Turns Out Size *Does* Matter, and That Bigger *Is* Better
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That's Auburn's best guy standing next to Oregon's best guy a couple weeks ago in New York.
Granted, the two will never be on the field at the same time, but it does serve as a metaphor for the way the two teams line up physically and how they both achieve success with very different weapons to work with.
Auburn's All-American center Ryan Pugh is their smallest (297 lbs.) offensive lineman. Tiger wide receiver Darvin Adams is the only Auburn starter under 210 pounds.
Oregon does not have a single starting wide receiver, running back, cornerback or defensive back (or quarterback) over 210 pounds.
At 6'6", 250 lbs., Heisman-winning Tiger Cam Newton is bigger than every Oregon linebacker.
What does it all mean? Will Oregon get crushed by overwhelming SEC power, or will it be a "bigger they are, the harder they fall" situation?
Odds of Auburn's Size Being a Nightmare Scenario for Oregon: 1 in 6'6", 250 lbs.
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7. Golden Bears in Tiger Clothes: Auburn Follows the Cal Blueprint
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After Oregon beat the Cal Golden Bears in a 15-13 squeaker last November, many in the media declared the game to be a "blueprint" on how to contain and beat the Ducks.
It basically boiled down to this: All game long Cal used a safety to shadow Ducks quarterback Darron Thomas. This single-assignment DB is often referred to as a "spy."
When the Ducks run their highly effective option plays, they usually leave one outside linebacker or defensive end unblocked and choose their option based on how he reacts.
If the defender turns toward LaMichael James (or Kenjon Barner), Thomas runs with the ball on the QB keeper. If the unblocked defender goes towards Thomas, he hands off or pitches to the available running back, usually James.
By having a spy on Thomas, there was already a defender watching the quarterback. The unblocked defender always took James, who in turn was limited to 91 yards, leaving Oregon without the 2-on-1 advantage they had used to point-a-minute effectiveness when running the read option all season up until that point.
Could stopping the most prolific offense in the country really be that simple? Yes and no. Yes in that Cal came within a missed field goal of keeping Oregon out of this national championship discussion altogether, and no in that Oregon won the ball game.
There are too many factors that need to be considered in a football game to be able to assign a single "recipe" or game plan that may have worked on another day.
Chip Kelly told The Oregonian's Ken Goe after the game in Berkeley, "There is not a magic formula. This isn't math. (Good) Will Hunting is not going to come up and grab the chalk and say, 'Here is the answer.'"
My guess is the incredible Gene Chizik and Gus Malzahn have plenty of their own tricks up their collective sleeves to keep the Ducks on their toes for 60 minutes.
Odds of Auburn Beating Oregon by Using Cal's Formula: ∀ n ∈ ℕ: n2 ≥ n to 1
6. Cam Newton and Nick Fairley Attend Game, Play Football
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In what is easily the scariest doomsday scenario looming over the head of the Oregon Ducks, the idea that these two student-athletes will put on football clothes and play football against them has given nightmares to even the toughest of the Pac-10's football champions.
No matter what you think about Cam Newton—his cheating on tests at Florida, the stolen laptop with scratched-off serial numbers he tossed out of his dorm window when the cops turned their heads or the Mississippi State shakedown orchestrated by his father over the course of a year that he had no idea about—no matter what you think about all that, one surely must agree that he is the best player in college football.
Lombardi Award winner Nick Fairley (highlights here) had an amazing season, recording a school-record 21 tackles for losses and finishing second in the SEC with 10.5 sacks. He had 55 tackles overall and has recovered two fumbles while forcing one.
These two are going to be NFL superstars, Pro Bowlers and likely Hall of Famers. Before that, they will play the role of boogeymen on January 10th, 2011 to the green, yellow, grey, black, white, carbon and chartreuse faithful.
Odds of Newton and Fairley Creating a Horror Show Highlight Reel for Duck Fans: Bet the Farm
5. Same As It Ever Was: SEC Domination
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News flash: The SEC doesn't lose BCS National Championship Games. Ever.
Six appearances (Tennessee, Florida and LSU twice and Alabama), six trips home with a crystal football, including the last four in a row.
An Oregon victory over the nation's No. 1 team would not only be an upset in the eyes of the oddsmakers in Vegas, but in the hearts and souls of SEC fans everywhere as well. (In Tuscaloosa, however, it might not be that big of a heartbreak, as evidenced here.)
Oregon has what it takes to beat the Tigers. There just isn't any precedent historically that says that it's possible.
Odds of the SEC's Unblemished Record in BCS National Championship Games Holding Up: Pick 'Em
4. Red-Hot Ducks Lose Their Cool
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There is a stat where Auburn doesn't even come close to Oregon: penalty yards against, where Oregon is ranked 24th in the nation with a season total of 761 yards (Auburn is ranked 42nd).
Oregon is a young squad, and youth sometimes brings with it discipline issues, even with an outstanding coach of the year like Chip Kelly at the helm.
To beat the Auburn Tigers, Oregon is going to have to play its best game of the year and avoid costly mistakes. Auburn is so good, so well-coached and stacked with such outstanding talent that the margin of error for next Monday's match is exactly zero.
Odds of the Ducks Killing Themselves with Penalties: 1 in 187
3. Auburn Adds Even More Pro Players to Its Roster
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It's already bad enough that Oregon will be facing professional student-athlete quarterback Cam Newton. Now there is a rumor going around that it's about to get worse for the amateur team from the University of Oregon.
With the NFL playoffs decided yesterday, the word is that several players from teams eliminated from playoff contention want to continue playing and have reason to believe that they can find a spot on a team playing January ball with Auburn University.
This would surely mean the end of the Ducks' hopes of a national championship.
Players mentioned as possible additions to Auburn's roster include Larry Fitzgerald of the Cardinals, Houston's Kareem Jackson, former Oregon slugger LeGarrette Blount and ex-Beaver Steven Jackson of the Rams.
Interested players are to contact Cecil Newton at the Holy Zion Center of Deliverance and Talent Management.
Though not an "agent" or authorized university "official," Mr. Newton claims to have established a direct connection between talent, the enrollment department and Jesus.
email: bi$hop_don_cecil_magic_juan@WarEagle$couting.edu
Odds of Auburn Signing More Pro Players Before Jan. 10, 2011: 0 (Relax, It's a Goof)*
*It's been my experience that many Southerners need to have that explained to them. In person I usually keep with Southern custom and ring a little bell to announce that a joke is coming, but that loses context on the interwebs, or as it's called in the South, "The Talkin' TV Gizmo."
2. Deja Vu Meets Groundhog Day
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The Ducks will play in a BCS game on the national stage where they will face a tough opponent from a conference rich in tradition. They'll have to take on a cheating, dual-threat quarterback who plays like a man amongst boys and wears a No. 2 jersey.
That was last year at the 2010 Rose Bowl, against Ohio State and Terrelle Pryor.
In Pasadena, Oregon had trouble containing the tattooed man-child and lost 26-17.
Fast-forward to an even bigger stage, a Heisman-winning quarterback and a team that is just as well (if not better) coached that finished a tough SEC schedule undefeated. Oh, and the quarterback also wears No. 2 and cheats (but is smart enough to go for the big bucks, not just a couple tattoos).
Will the Ducks find themselves in a Groundhog Day-style horror movie, or will they exorcise the demons of the past by winning the day against all odds?
Odds of Oregon Suffering a Repeat BCS 2010 Performance Against Auburn in 2011: 1 in 5
1. An Injury to Darron Thomas
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Worst. Case. Scenario.
Talk about deja vu nightmares. Last year's BCS championship game became far less of a contest after Texas quarterback Colt McCoy was knocked out of the game after just the fifth snap of the Longhorns' first drive.
Should the same fate (knock on virtual wood) fall upon Oregon's Darron Thomas, the Ducks offense would be put into the hands of true freshman Bryan Bennett, who has yet to take a collegiate snap.
Though Bennett is the obvious future of Oregon's quarterback position, the Ducks hope to keep his redshirt intact and will only burn it in case of emergency, the kind of emergency that would be, without a doubt, the worst-case scenario for Oregon.
The Ducks are deep at every position but one, perhaps the most important position, since stalwart senior Nate Costa suffered a season-ending injury in Oregon's game against Washington.
If head coach Chip Kelly sees something in Bryan Bennett, surely there's something there. I think I speak for all Ducks fans when I say that we'd rather see that "something" later than sooner.
Odds of Oregon Winning With Backup QB Bryan Bennett: All Bets Are Off
In Closing
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As a diehard Duck fan, it pained me to write this article full of possible roadblocks to Oregon's success in Glendale, but I will write anything the editors at Bleacher Report assign to me, however difficult it may be.
I'm confident that Oregon will prevail on the 10th, no matter the hardships they face that day.
From the tumultuous offseason of early 2010 to the injuries to Kenjon Barner and Nate Costa and the close call at Cal, the 2010-2011 Ducks have proven to be up to the task when it comes to taking on any scenario that comes their way.
Except for maybe the one where all those NFL guys suit up for Auburn. That would just be way too much ;)
Go Ducks—win the day!
Learn more about the Ducks who will be BCS difference makers in my article here.
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