Holiday Bowl: Why Nebraska Will Dominate Washington
All the conventional wisdom is working against Nebraska as they prepare to face Washington in the Holiday Bowl. It's tough to beat a team twice. Nebraska thought it would be in a BCS game and won't be motivated. Rumors about head coach Bo Pelini leaving will distract the team. Nebraska played in the Holiday Bowl last year and won't be interested.
Those are all issues of concern for Nebraska, and they could have a bearing on how the game turns out. But what we haven't heard much of is why Nebraska will put a repeat performance of the 56-21 thumping it put on the Huskies in Seattle. And there's plenty of those reasons, too.
Let's be clear. I'm not saying Nebraska WILL dominate Washington. But there are a number of good reasons to think they will dominate. Here are a few of them.
Time Heals All Wounds
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Against Washington, NU quarterback Taylor Martinez ran for 139 yards and threw for another 150 in Nebraska's blowout win. The Washington game was Martinez's coming out party to the nation, showing off his amazing speed and introducing the world to his superhero identity, T-Magic.
But all superheroes have weaknesses. Superman has kryptonite. Green Lantern has things that are yellow. The Martian Manhunter has fire.
T-Magic's weakness, apparently, is a high ankle sprain. Ever since his injury against Missouri, T-Magic has been conspicuously absent, and Nebraska's offense has sputtered. The assumption is that the NU offense we saw in the Big XII title game is the offense Nebraska will bring to the Holiday Bowl, which would help Washington keep things close.
But Martinez will have almost a full month of rest to heal his aching ankle. While he may not be up to full speed, it is likely we will see far more of T-Magic in the Holiday Bowl than we have since Missouri. That's not good news for Washington.
Helu and Goodbye
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Senior tailback Roy Helu, Jr., will be playing his last game for Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl. While he has shown flashes of brilliance (including setting Nebraska's single-game rushing record against Missouri this year), injuries and a lack of opportunities have limited Helu's contributions throughout his career. Helu should be healthy coming into the Holiday Bowl, and it is likely that NU will lean on the senior to provide an additional threat to the Washington defense.
The Finale of 24
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Another senior who will be playing his last game for Nebraska is wideout Niles Paul. A broken foot held Paul out of the Big XII title game against Oklahoma, and his absence robbed NU of their most dangerous downfield threat. As a result, OU was able to load up to stop a hobbled Martinez and stymie Nebraska's offense.
Reports have Paul as a game time decision to play in the Holiday Bowl, but you have to think the senior will get at least some opportunities. Paul had a monster Holiday Bowl against Arizona last year, and the senior should have every opportunity to have a repeat performance if his injured foot will allow him to play.
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A Point To Prove
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It's been a tumultuous season and offseason for the Nebraska coaching staff. Pelini's name was prominently linked to the Miami position. Offensive coordinator Shawn Watson took the brunt of the blame for NU's anemic offensive performance in Nebraska's loss to Oklahoma, keeping NU out of the BCS. Linebackers coach Mike Ekeler has already accepted a position as co-defensive coordinator at Indiana.
Indeed, Nebraska might be the most questioned and "underachieving" ten-win team in the country. Don't think that's lost on Pelini and company as they prepare their team for Washington. Any lack of motivation due to the circumstances surrounding the game certainly won't filter to the NU coaching staff.
Barking Dogs
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Interviews with NU players leading up to the Holiday Bowl reveal that Washington (like a lot of Pac-10 teams) did quite a bit of talking on the field in Seattle. NU players noticed this at the time, thinking they would be filing it away for Washington's return trip to Lincoln in 2011. Some Washington players did a little more talking when the matchup was announced, saying how they were looking forward to a rematch with NU.
We've already looked at the coaches' motivation. Answering a challenge from Washington's players will help NU overcome their motivational challenges in getting ready for this year's Holiday Bowl.
Perfect's Pretty Good
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Bo Pelini's teams have never lost a bowl game. Even in Pelini's one-game stint as interim head coach after Frank Solich was fired led to a Nebraska win over Michigan State in the Alamo Bowl. While Pelini's tenure as a head coach is still relatively short, there is enough data to at least conclude that Pelini has a good handle on using the extra time to prepare and get his teams ready for a bowl game. So, even if some of the other reasons to think NU will struggle against Washington aren't convincing, Nebraska fans can fall back on four words borne out by Pelini's bowl history.
In Pelini We Trust.
Paper Huskies
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After Oregon got finished dismantling Washington, 53-16, the Huskies were 3-6 and staring at another losing season. They went on a three-game winning streak, getting to 6-6 and making themselves bowl eligible.
But who did Washington beat? A pretty awful UCLA team, a California squad that had gone into free-fall after their near-miss with Oregon, and Washington State. Yes, the Apple Cup is a rivalry game, but the Cougars are one of the worst teams in the FBS.
And the Cougs had a lead on Washington in the fourth quarter.
In fact, only one of Washington's wins this year was over a team that ended the year with a winning record. That team? Syracuse.
The Final Verdict
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Again, let's be clear. This slideshow isn't a guarantee that Nebraska WILL crush Washington in the Holiday Bowl. Indeed, while I think NU is a decent bet to cover the 14-point spread, it will be quite a surprise to see NU match their 56-point outburst they had in Seattle.
But all of the coverage leading up to the Holiday Bowl is how all of the intangibles point towards Washington. What's been lost in the conversation is how Nebraska has a significant talent advantage at just about every position over Washington. There's no question that motivation and intangibles play a huge role in bowl games. But so does size and speed. And, as we've seen in this slideshow, there are some intangibles that lean NU's way as well.
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