Big Ten Football: Breaking Down the Bowl Games
Eight teams from the (current) Big Ten Conference are going bowling this year. In just a few short days, they'll be teeing up against opponents from the Big 12, SEC and Mountain West.
Whether we like to admit it or not, the perception of the conference as a whole rides firmly on the performance of its teams in bowl games. If they come away with a poor showing (as they did in 2008 when they went 1-6), getting a team into the national championship game in the near future will be much tougher.
On the other hand, with the opponents they face, the schools of the Big Ten can make a statement as to their conference being one of the tougher ones in the nation. Once again though, most of the teams are having to "play up" against opponents ranked higher than they are and with better records.
Will it be worth the price of admission to see these games?
How can they pull off victory?
What's the final prognosis for the games?
Let's dig in on the Christmas Day and see what Santa's leaving under the Big Ten tree this year.
Iowa Vs Missouri in the Insight Bowl, December 28, 2010 10:00 PM ET ESPN/ESPN 3
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A border rivalry for a bowl game. How great is that? Throw in the fact that these teams haven't played each other in 100 years, plus the fact that Missouri pulled out of the first half of a four-year deal (Iowa pulled out of the last half) and there's plenty of drama surrounding this game.
Is it worth the price of admission? Potentially, yes this one definitely is.
Missouri brings a 10-2 record into this match-up versus a 7-5 Iowa team that melted down over the last three games of the regular season. However, those records are a little misleading and this game may well ride more on the "intangibles" than the statistical indicators.
If nothing else, this game is worth it because you won't likely see these two teams play each other again any time soon - despite residing closer to each other than the majority of their respective conference foes.
Leaders to Watch: For Missouri, the whole thing may rest on the able arm of Blaine Gabbert.
De'Vion Moore, Henry Josey and Kendial Lawrence are all capable backs (all average over four yards-per-carry) and will undoubtedly provide significant depth to the attack of the Tiger offense. However, Iowa brings in the nation's sixth best run defense. Don't count on any one of them having the numbers they're accustomed to in this game.
Gabbert, on the other hand, has completed 62.2% of his passes and thrives on tossing the short-to-mid range passes--exactly the kind of plays Iowa typically surrenders in order to prevent the big plays. Gabbert can keep the ball moving against a relatively soft Iowa pass defense (54th in the nation) and put the Tigers in scoring position often. More importantly, he can keep Iowa's offense off the field and eventually put them in a must-score situation. Iowa has been awful at those situations all year.
For Iowa, Ricky Stanzi is still the leader of the pack. Stanzi boasts the ninth best passer rating in Div I-A college football. Stanzi has thrown 25 touchdowns to only four interceptions.
However, Missouri brings in the 36th rated pass defense in the country and is suitably opportunistic, pulling down 16 interceptions while allowing 13 passing touchdowns. What's more, the Tigers are eighth in the country in sacks with a total of 37 on the year.
If-and-when they get Stanzi into tough situations where he has to decide quickly what to do with the football, they're well suited to pick off errant passes and kill Hawkeye drives.
Therefore, look for Marcus Coker to be the primary weapon that opens up everything else for Iowa. Coker has only carried the ball 81 times, but averages a nice 4.98 yard-per-carry average and could bruise the Tigers' 55th rated run defense.
Keys for a Missouri win: The way to beat Iowa is to take what they give you. The Hawkeyes' Tampa 2 defense allows short gains consistently, while taking away the "home-run" play. Gabbert can pick-and-peck at the soft zone, chewing up six or seven yards per play and moving the sticks. Ultimately, they can wear down Iowa's defense and destroy their morale. It's been a formula for success five times this year and Missouri can make it six.
Along with that, they can put pressure on Ricky Stanzi and take the pass game away from the Hawkeyes, forcing them to pin their hopes on a freshman running back. As good as Coker may be, he's still a freshman and not really ready to be the force of the Iowa offense.
Keys for an Iowa win: It all starts up front for the Hawkeyes. On the defensive side, Adrian Clayborn, Broderick Binns and the crew have to be mobile along the line and have to get pressure into the backfield. In short, they have to live up to their early-season billing.
On the offensive side, the line needs to buy time for Stanzi. Without all-time-leading-receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, Iowa's pass offense will be a man short. Stanzi will need enough time to read through his progressions and make solid throws.
The line will also have to create some running room for Coker. He's a bruising back, but he's not nearly up to Shonn Greene standards and needs a little breathing room to get rolling.
The receivers will also have to step up and stop dropping catchable passes or the offense will sputter badly.
Intangibles: This is where things get really interesting.
To start, Iowa and Missouri haven't played each other since 1910. While the coaches are saying all the right things regarding the border feud and mutual respect between the teams, the fans aren't so quick to forgive-and-forget. (link thanks to Al Namias IV)
As mentioned before, Missouri backed out of a four-game series that was scheduled to start in 2005 as well. You can be sure that both teams are hungry to display their dominance over their neighbors, knowing that they might not have another opportunity for quite some time.
Along with all of that, Iowa lost their all-time leading receiver in Derrell Johnson-Koulianos as well as their starting running back Adam Robinson for this bowl game. Plus, Iowa collapsed over the final three games of the season to end with a thoroughly unspectacular 7-5 record when they started the season with legitimate conference title hopes.
All of this may sound bad for Hawkeye fans. However, consider that Iowa lost to Wisconsin by only one point, lost to Ohio State by only three points, and blew forth quarter leads in every one of their losses save the contest against Arizona (where they were tied). In addition, they destroyed Michigan State 37-6.
In a nutshell, despite their record, Iowa has played right along with every team they've faced this year, and led nearly all of them late in their games.
What's more, the Hawkeyes generally play very well in their bowl games. Kirk Ferentz and his staff do a fantastic job of preparing their teams when they have some time to plan for their opponents. A full month is plenty enough time to get this team back on track and ready for what's coming at them.
Final prognostication: Toss out the records and give only cursory glances to the stats. This game should be a heated exchange between two teams who are fully capable of beating each other.
Expect Missouri to move the ball up and down the field against Iowa's zone defense. However, don't expect the run game to be nearly as effective as they've been in the past and don't expect the points to come pouring on the board.
Iowa will eventually figure out how to put together some sustained drives and hang point-for-point with the Tigers.
In the end, it'll come down to whether or not Iowa has figured out how to put together a two-minute offense and how to keep their defense up to par when the game's on the line.
My guess is, this could be a real thriller that comes down to the wire.
Prediction: Iowa 28 - Missouri 27
Illinois Vs. Baylor in Texas Bowl: December 29, 2010, 6:00 PM ET ESPN/ESPN 3
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Who would have seen this match-up coming back in September? Illinois was coming off a miserable 3-9 season and Baylor was...well, Baylor.
Four months and twelve games later (apiece) and two unlikely opponents will get the opportunity to square off in "The Lone Star State" in a post-season game.
Is it worth the price of admission? Eh...I don't know. Is it worth tuning in to on TV? Yes. Is it worth the money to travel and get tickets? I'm not so sure, unless you're an Illini fan or a Bear fan.
Neither team boasts a great record. Illinois comes in at a mediocre 6-6 (4-4 Big Ten) after faltering against Fresno State to close the season.
Baylor also comes in with a mediocre record of 7-5 and is coming off three straight losses, after starting 7-2 (including a 30-22 win at Texas).
Both need something positive to build on for 2011.
Leaders to watch: For the Fighting Illini, Mikel LeShoure is the man. Nathan Scheelhaase is a talented dual-threat quarterback, but his arm is nowhere near dangerous enough to get truly worried about.
LeShoure has 1522 yards on the ground and averages a very nice 6.02 yards-per-carry with 14 touchdowns to his credit.
For Baylor, Jay Finley is also a force to be reckoned with. Putting up 1155 yards (6.31 ypc ave.) with 11 touchdowns, he's more than capable of carrying the load.
Of course, Robert Griffin III can't be overlooked either. The sophomore QB has likewise run for 591 yards (4.44 ypc. ave.) and has scored eight times on top of completing 66.3% of his passes for another 3195 yards and 21 touchdowns.
The Bears are loaded for...well...bear, on offense.
Illinois keys to victory: Illinois' defense has been markedly improved over last year. They're going to have their hands full against Baylor, to be sure.
The Illini have to stick to their assignments no matter what. Griffin can burn them two different ways and they can't over pursue in an attempt to make the big play.
The best move for the Illini would be to focus on shutting down Finley and making the Baylor offense a one-person attack. That still won't stop the Baylor production, but it could limit it considerably.
Baylor keys to victory: Patience is the key. Illinois has the fourth best rushing defense in the Big Ten and the fifth best passing defense in the conference. The yards may not come too easily either direction.
However, they will come, and so will the scores. Stick to the game plan. Keep Finley and Griffin moving on the ground to establish that threat, then go back to the air and back the Illini defense off again. A balanced attack should keep Illinois guessing as to what to do next.
Intangibles: Neither of these teams were bowling last year. In fact, Illinois last saw the post-season in 2007 when they went to the Rose Bowl. Baylor hasn't been to a bowl game since 1994 when they lost to Washington State in the Alamo Bowl.
To say both of these teams are hungry for a bowl win would be a dramatic understatement.
Final prognostication: Look for this to be a fairly low scoring affair. Baylor should be able to move the ball against Illinois' defense, though it might not be in huge chunks. Illinois, on the other hand, should be able to employ both Scheelhaase and LeShoure to keep the Bears on their toes as well.
This could come down to who holds the ball last.
In the end, I put Baylor's strength of schedule ahead of Illinois' and think the Bears could pick up their first bowl win since 1992.
Prediction: Baylor 21 - Illinois 20
Northwestern Vs. Texas Tech in TicketCity Bowl, January 1, 2011 12:00 PM ESPNU
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Oh what this game could have been! But alas, no. Things had to take a bad turn for Northwestern and suddenly this bowl loses a lot of its luster.
Is it worth the price of admission? In a word, no. Once upon a time, this might have been a pretty interesting match-up between a decent Big Ten program and a decent Big 12 opponent.
However, Northwestern lost Dan Persa to a torn Achilles tendon and the biggest part of their offense went bye-bye with him. Since losing Persa late in the game against Iowa, the Wildcats have lost two straight and limp into this game with a 7-5 record.
Don't expect this game to be a barn burner.
Leaders to watch: For Northwestern, it's going to have to be WR Jeremy Ebert and/or RB Mike Trumpy. Persa was the undisputed leader in passing and was second on the Wildcat team in rushing. Now that he's gone, Trumpy will have to step up and be the driving force behind the offense.
For Texas Tech, Taylor Potts, Baron Batch and Eric Stephens will be the main guys leading the charge--at least on offense.
Batch and Stephens average 4.68 and 4.80 yards-per-carry respectively and account for five rushing touchdowns apiece.
Potts has completed 66.0% of his passes for 3357 yards and has tossed 31 touchdowns to only eight interceptions.
Keys to a Texas Tech victory: Let the offense do its thing. It's just that simple. Northwestern isn't in a position to win a shootout, so even if the Red Raider defense decided to take a vacation, their offense should be able to carry them to victory.
Northwestern is ninth in the Big Ten in rushing defense, allowing 185.17 yards-per-game. They're also eighth in the conference in passing defense, allowing 230.5 yards-per-game.
Basically, they're not strong enough defensively to keep the Wildcats in this game, unless their offense really steps up big.
Keys to a Northwestern victory: They've got to do better on defense. The Red Raiders have plenty of tools at their disposal and can come at the Wildcats with a number of different players. If their pass defense can buckle down and slow the pass attack, they might be able to control the tempo of the game enough to keep it close.
Offensively, Trumpy has to come up big and the line needs to be a rock. As already noted, Persa was the key to the Wildcat offense. Evan Watkins has completed only 53.1% of his passes and has thrown four interceptions to only one touchdown. He's not the answer to the Wildcat woes, unless he has plenty of time to allow plays to develop. He's just not experienced enough to lead this offense if things aren't working perfectly.
Final prognostication: If Northwestern still had Persa on the field, I would have gladly predicted this game to be an interesting battle between two tricky teams. However, without Persa, Northwestern's offense is severely limited and their defense just isn't good enough to hold the Red Raiders in check.
Look for this to be fairly lopsided in favor of Tech.
Prediction: Texas Tech 31 - Northwestern 17
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Alabama Vs. Michigan State in the Capital One Bowl, January 1, 2011, 1 PM ESPN/3
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This is one of the "Big Ones" of the bowl season between two very good teams. What's more, this is a showdown between the Big Ten and the SEC--two conferences that, by all accounts, don't much like each other.
Is it worth the price of admission? Yes, and then some.
Michigan State comes into this match as a Big Ten Tri-Champion, boasting a lofty 11-1 record. The Crimson Tide meanwhile, brings a 9-3 record into the contest and can still claim to be the reigning national champions for at least a few more weeks.
It doesn't get too much better than this, folks.
Leaders to watch for: Mark Ingram is the 2009 Heisman Trophy winner and is backed up by Trent Richardson. Ingram boasts a 5.59 yard-per-carry average while Richardson has racked up a hefty 6.45 yard-per-carry average. The two have combined for 16 rushing touchdowns on the season.
You can't forget QB Greg McElroy either. McElroy has completed 70.6% of his passes, thrown 19 touchdowns and only given away five interceptions. They just don't get much better than the Mac.
For the Spartans, it's really the ground game that shines brightest. Edwin Baker has averaged 6.09 yards-per-carry on the season while his wing man, Le'Veon Bell, has managed a nifty 5.75 average. Those two have combined for 21 rushing touchdowns.
Kirk Cousins is the man under center and he shouldn't be overlooked. He's completed 67.5% of his passes and has tossed 20 touchdowns, compared to nine interceptions. He's dangerous when needed, but the ground game of Baker and Bell provide the punch that opens up Cousins' air assault.
Keys to an Alabama victory: Shut down the Spartan ground attack. Cousins is a dangerous quarterback, but he's proved that he can be rattled under pressure. Iowa picked Cousins off three times while Wisconsin picked him off twice.
Those two teams were arguably the toughest on Michigan State's schedule and they made Cousins look less than spectacular.
On the flip-side, the Tide need to take what the Spartans give them. Greg Jones and his incredible linebacker mates are tough to beat, but if they come up in the box to stop Ingram and Richardson, there will be plenty of room for McElroy to burn down the Big Ten's seventh rated pass defense.
Keys to a Michigan State victory: Control the ground game. Baker and Bell have to get things churning so that Cousins doesn't feel the need to make everything happen himself. As long as he doesn't feel pressured to carry the offense, he's far less likely to throw up cherries for the Crimson Tide to pick.
Defensively, the secondary will really have to be on their toes. As mentioned before, if Jones and company play too tight to stop Ingram and Richardson, McElroy will just burn them through the air. The corners and safeties are going to have to be tough, quick and smart to keep 'Bama from running away with this thing.
Intangibles: Michigan State would have been in a BCS bowl in any other year with the record they posted this season. Consider that Iowa went to the Orange Bowl a year ago with a 10-2 record and there are no fewer than four teams in BCS bowls this season with worse records than the Spartans have.
How much does that eat at them? An 11-1 record and they're not in Pasadena and not in any other BCS bowl. Yeah, I think I might have a little something to prove.
This is--again--a big showdown between the Big Ten and the SEC. The fans of these two conferences go at each other all year long, each claiming that their conference is superior in one fashion or another. This is one of the main bowls the two conferences will point to as confirmation behind their arguments.
As for Alabama, they're the reigning national champions, but only for a few weeks. They'll have to relinquish that crown soon enough. In the meantime, you can't tell me that they aren't hungry to prove that they're still close enough to the crown to be a real threat again next year.
Final prognostication: I'm not convinced that Michigan State is ready for this kind of match-up. During the season, they only played one team that ended up ranked in the top 25. That was Wisconsin, and it was played at a time before the Badgers got James White and Montee Ball fully ingrained in their offensive production.
Meanwhile, Michigan State was destroyed by Iowa (who finished 7-5) by a score of 37-6, and limped by both Purdue (35-31) and Penn State (28-22). They needed late rallies to win several games as the season wore on.
Alabama won't allow the Spartans to come storming back for the win. Once they get MSU down, they'll stand on them until the final whistle blows. What's more, Alabama is more balanced than Iowa, healthier than Penn State, and more talented top-to-bottom than Purdue.
Prediction: Alabama 34 - Michigan State 17
Florida Vs. Penn State in the Outback Bowl, January 1, 2011, 1:00 PM ABC
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Penn State ended up in a January bowl game. How did that happen? Wasn't this the team that was imploding before our eyes?
Not quite. That was Florida.
Is it worth the price of admission? Um...maybe.
This could easily be one of the sloppiest games played on January 1st. Neither team has had a fantastic season and both have struggled to get their offenses working the way they should.
Still, this could be a pretty exciting match-up between two teams with terrific histories, even if their present hasn't been so wonderful.
Leaders to watch: For Penn State, Matt McGloin is the key to their late-season success.
McGloin is a true pocket passer, unlike Robert Bolden--who started the season as the Lions' signal caller. He's been a more natural fit for this offense and it's translated into more obvious success.
Evan Royster has been one of the biggest names in Penn State history, but Silas Redd is the guy to really keep an eye on. Royster has averaged 4.87 yards-per-carry this season while Redd is averaging 6.14. Royster has only mustered three 100-yard games. Redd only has one such game, but has largely played a back-up role to Royster.
Florida will have to rely heavily on Jeffery Demps and Mike Gillislee. QB John Brantley has completed 61.4% of his passes, but has thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns (nine apiece).
Against the Big Ten's second best pass defense, don't look for Brantley to have a stellar day. Demps and Gillislee will have to be the ones to step up and move the ball into scoring position.
Keys to Florida victory: Keep it churning on the ground.
Penn State's pass defense may look statistically good, but their run defense doesn't. They're seventh in the conference against the run and give up way too many yards to effectively shut down the Gator ground attack.
Keeping it on the ground burns time off the clock as well and allows their defense to stay fresh.
Speaking of that defense, they need to get pressure on Matt McGloin. He's completed 58.0% of his passes and tossed 13 touchdowns to only four interceptions. The Gators can't allow him to get into a rhythm and take away the time-of-possession advantage.
Keys to a Penn State victory: Take away the Gator ground game.
Force this thing into Brantley's hands and more than half of the battle is won. Brantley will make mistakes that Penn State can turn into opportunities. They won't though, if they're getting burned on the ground and Florida feels no urgency to go to the air.
Offensively, they've got to get Redd working. As noted before, Royster may have more yards and more scores, but he also has more carries. Redd has a better average and is consistently better than Royster this year. Let him be the man to chew up clock and yards.
McGloin is also going to have to show some poise. Throwing the ball against this Florida defense won't be easy. In fact, it'll be dangerous. He'll have to show maturity in picking his targets and brushing off mistakes. The Lions can't afford to have him fall apart on them.
Intangibles: Penn State's defense has been a revolving door all season long with injuries taking people in and out of the rotation.
Now, everyone should pretty much be healthy and Joe Paterno can put his best people on the field.
How much did those injuries hurt Penn State's defense over the course of the season? How much will having them back help their defense in this game?
Final prognostication: Ugh, these games can be really tough to pick.
On the one hand, Florida's offense looks better against Penn State's defense than the other way around.
On the other, Florida has looked really bad this year.
Penn State looked really bad during the first half of the season, but started looking much better over the second half. I lean toward the return of their defensive players making a noticeable difference in this game.
That gives Penn State the slight edge. Very slight maybe, but an edge all the same.
Prediction: Penn State 28 - Florida 27
Mississippi State Vs Michigan in the Gator Bowl, January 1, 2011, 1:30 PM ESPN2
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Congratulations Michigan fans! Your team is back in a bowl game. In fact, they're back in a January bowl game.
Ehem...you can thank your historical name for that last bit. Sure, the Wolverines are as deserving of this bowl game as any other 7-5 team the Big Ten offered up. However, at 3-5 in conference play, they're somewhat less deserving than some other teams.
Is it worth the price of admission? I'm not sold at this point.
Sure, sure, this is another January showdown between the SEC and the Big Ten. And yes, Denard Robinson is the kind of player that can make any game exciting.
On the other side, Mississippi State has the kind of defense that just might be able to slow Robinson down.
Who wins?
Leaders to watch: For Michigan, Robinson is an obvious choice.
The dual-threat quarterback has amassed 1643 yards on the ground and 2316 through the air. He has also totaled 30 touchdowns for the Wolverines.
Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw are also people you should keep your eyes on. Smith has averaged 4.56 yards-per-carry while Shaw has averaged 5.39. The two have combined for 14 more Wolverine scores.
Of course, you can't forget Roy Rountree who has pulled down 63 catches for 882 yards and six scores.
For Mississippi State, QB Chris Relf is a man to keep an eye on. He has completed 56.7% of his passes and rushed for 671 yards.
The real threat on the Bulldog team may be running backs Vick Ballard and LaDarius Perkins. Ballard averages 5.42 yards-per-carry on the ground, while Perkins averages 5.72.
The Bulldogs have no shortage of ways to beat on a weak Michigan defense.
Keys to a Mississippi State victory: Just let the offense do its thing.
Michigan's defense rates 10th in the Big Ten in scoring. To put it bluntly, they stink. They can't stop anybody.
Okay, that might be going a little bit too far, but they're definitely not the toughest squad the Big Ten has to offer, and Mississippi State should have little trouble putting points on the board.
Defensively, they've got to key on Robinson. As simple as that sounds, it really is. Well, it mostly is.
Sure, Shaw and Smith are capable of running the ball, and Tate Forcier is as good a backup quarterback as you'll find anywhere in the nation. Still, Michigan's offense is centered around Robinson and his dual-threat capabilities.
The Bulldogs won't be able to stop Robinson, but if they can slow him down, they'll go a long way toward taking Michigan out of the game early.
Linebackers Chris White and K.J. Wright need to stay mobile and cut off Robinson's lanes. Most importantly, if they get a hand on Denard, they have to bring him down. They can't let tackles slip through their hands.
Keys to a Michigan victory: Get Tate Forcier in early.
Hey, I'm a fan of Denard Robinson. Really, I am. But Mississippi State has the third best run defense in the SEC. They're just the kind of defense that Robinson and Michigan have struggled against all year long.
The Bulldogs won't be looking for Forcier before the second half. Get him involved in the first half and help keep the Wolverines in the thick of things. Change it up every few drives and don't allow them to get a good grasp on either look.
It may be asking too much, but the Wolverine run defense has to take a big step up. Relf is dangerous, but mostly he's dangerous when he can run as well as pass. Take that away from him.
Ballard and Perkins will also be able to run over the Wolverines if they don't do a better job of wrapping up their tackles.
Intangibles: How well can Robinson run against this kind of defense when he's healthy? We haven't really seen Denard at 100% since fairly early in the season. His numbers have been good, but have they been as good as they could have been?
Final prognostication: It'll be interesting to see how Mississippi State's defense handles Robinson. He might just make an entrance into the 2011 Heisman race with this game.
However, I can't ignore two very important elements to this game.
First, Mississippi State's defense is far better than Michigan's. You have to assume that they'll be able to slow down the Wolverine attack--at least enough to give their own offense a chance.
Second, the Bulldog offense has plenty of tools to find the holes in Michigan's defense.
In the end, I think the Bulldogs have a better offense-to-defense balance than Michigan does and it'll show going into the fourth quarter.
Prediction: Mississippi State 37 - Michigan 31
Wisconsin Vs TCU in the Rose Bowl, January 1, 2011, 5:00 PM ESPN/3
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This is "the Grandaddy of Them All". For decades, this was the ultimate destination for Big Ten teams. For decades, this bowl only showcased the Big Ten and the Pac-10.
This year, TCU crashes the party and attempts to add its name into the legendary history of Rose Bowl champions.
Is it worth the price of admission? Not only is it worth the price of admission, it's easily worth twice that.
This is a game between one of the toughest, hard-nosed offenses in the country and one of the toughest defenses in the country. This has the makings of a real slugfest--if you believe TCU is as good as advertised.
Leaders to watch: John Clay started the season as the face of the Badger offense. Injury slowed him down a little, but James White and Montee Ball more than picked up the slack.
The trio of Wisconsin backs have combined for 2829 yards and 44 touchdowns.
Scott Tolzien is a talented quarterback who has been overshadowed by his running back mates. Tolzien has completed 74.3% of his passes and tossed 16 touchdowns while only giving up six interceptions.
For TCU, RB Ed Wesley could be a huge factor. Wesley is averaging a whopping 6.57 yards-per-carry.
QB Andy Dalton has completed 66.2% of his passes and scored 26 touchdowns to only six interceptions.
See any similarities?
Key to a TCU victory: The Horned Frog defense allows only 89.17 yards-per-game on the ground. They're going to have their hands full with Wisconsin's trio of running backs, but they've got to stay on par with that stiff defense.
Wisconsin's pass game is decent enough, but it really relies on the ground game to set the tempo. If TCU can limit that--even a little--it might force Tolzien to carry more of the load than he's had to for most of the season.
This is especially true because TCU boasts the nation's top pass defense. If they can take away Wisconsin's run game, they push them right into TCU's strength.
Offensively, the Horned Frogs have to keep plugging away at Wisconsin's defense. The Badgers aren't the best defense in the Big Ten. They're close, but they're not the best.
Still, they won't roll over for TCU. The Horned Frogs won't find the sledding as easy as they did throughout the Mountain West Conference. They're going to have to work for their yards and points.
If they keep changing it up, finding balance in their attack and allowing their defense to keep them in the game, they'll eventually find a way to get the upper hand on Bret Bielema's boys.
Keys to a Wisconsin victory: Keep...running...the ball.
Scott Tolzien is a good quarterback, but he's going face-to-face with one of the best pass defenses in the country. He can't be expected to carry this team. The guys on the ground will have to do it.
Again, it won't be easy. TCU has a talented group of defenders who are well-coached. Bret Bielema can't panic and start throwing the kitchen sink at TCU. Just keep plugging away with Clay, Ball and White. Eventually, something's gotta give.
Most importantly, Wisconsin has to play smart ball. They can't afford to turn it over against a team like TCU. If they fall too far behind, they're done.
How far is too far? I'd guess that more than seven might be the death knell for a Badger Rose Bowl victory.
Intangibles: TCU vs. the Rose Bowl.
The Horned Frogs, like Boise State, has sometimes benefited from facing teams that were something less than excited to be in the bowl they were in. The fact that they were facing a tough, disciplined team meant little. You can't quickly fix heartbreak.
For Wisconsin, this is the destination they'd hoped for from the beginning. Yes, they were mentioned as a dark horse in the national title race, and they obviously could have gotten there. However, Ohio State might be about the only team in the conference that comes into a season actually expecting a berth in the national title game.
For Big Ten teams, Pasadena is the Promised Land. A national championship berth is a utopia they can hope for, but not necessarily expect. It's still Pasadena or bust.
For TCU, that means that they will be facing a team that isn't at all disappointed at being there. There will be no letdown for the Badgers to distract them from their preparation for the game. TCU will get the best Wisconsin has to offer, for better or worse.
Final prognostication: This could be one of the most physical games of the post-season.
Wisconsin's offensive line is larger, more physical and more athletic than about any line TCU has faced all year. They're going to really test that run defense.
Look for the Wisconsin running backs to chip away at TCU's defense. There might not be a lot of huge runs, but they'll slowly wear the Horned Frog defense down with long, sustained drives.
TCU will get their shots in, though. This won't be a walk in the park by any stretch, for either team. I would expect both teams to pick up three or four yards per play, and that's about it.
In the end, Wisconsin's offensive line and their experience against tough defenses in the Big Ten will win out. This will be old-school football. It'll be a slow pace and a real battle in the trenches--right where Wisconsin wants it to happen.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24 - TCU 23
Ohio State Vs Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl, January 4, 2011 8:30 PM ESPN
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Well now. Hasn't Ohio State been all the rage in the news lately? Unfortunately, not for things they want to be in there for.
That will all have to be put aside as the Buckeyes take on the Razorbacks in the biggest match between the Big Ten and the SEC.
Is it worth the price of admission? It should be. There's a lot here to be excited about.
Ohio State has won or shared each of the last six Big Ten titles. They boast an excellent running quarterback in Terrelle Pryor, a solid running back in Dan Herron, a slew of quality receivers and a defense that's about as tough as they come.
On the other side, Arkansas likewise has one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Ryan Mallett. They have a very good back in Knile Davis and have a defense that can force opponents into bad situations.
Leaders to watch: I think I just named them all.
Keep an eye on how Pryor does against the SEC's fourth best pass defense as well as how the Buckeye defensive secondary does against the SEC's best passing offense.
At the same time, it'll be interesting to see how Mallett fares against the Big Ten's best pass defense and how Davis works against the Big Ten's best run defense.
Key to Arkansas victory: Ohio State's defense is really, really good. They don't give up much on the ground or through the air. Yet, Iowa had them down by seven late in the fourth quarter. Points can be scored. Victory can be had.
Mallet will have to forgo the long bombs and peck away at the Buckeye D. Davis will have to be patient enough to wait on the holes to come open and quick enough to hit them when they do. Again, success can be had, but it won't come easily.
Mostly, the Razorbacks need to key heavily on Terrell Pryor. Herron is a solid back (5.56 ypc. ave.), but he's no Mark Ingram of a year ago. He's no Barry Sanders in his prime. He's no....you get the picture.
Herron knows how to get things done, and is always a threat out of the backfield. However, Pryor is the threat that can hurt the most. Just when you think you've got him locked down in the backfield, he finds a way to turn on the jets and pick up big yards on the ground.
The Buckeyes count on him being able to do that. Take him out of the equation and force Herron to be the one to carry the Buckeyes to victory. He might be able to do it, but it will be whole lot tougher without the threat of Pryor.
Keys to a Buckeye victory: The Razorbacks have the tenth best run defense in the SEC.
It should be obvious that the first key to victory is to get the ground game working. Herron and Pryor have done well in tandem all year and shouldn't find this match any tougher than facing Wisconsin or Iowa--at least on the ground.
The Buckeye defense will have to get pressure on Mallett. He's tossed 30 touchdowns but has also given up 11 interceptions. Get him out of his comfort zone and he might be willing to hand-deliver a pick or two.
Intangibles: Everyone has heard by now about Tattoo Gate.
Do the offending players deserve to be in this game? That's a debate for another article. The fact is, they're allowed to play in this game, whether they deserve it or not.
How will the whole affair affect their preparation, though? How badly has all of this hoopla taken them away from their duty of preparing for a very talented Arkansas team?
That affair aside, I would have to think that the Ohio State players are very well aware of the fact that their team has gone 0-9 against the SEC in the BCS era. At what point does that number start to really get into a players head and jump around?
Sometimes, a team can want to win so badly that it actually becomes counter productive. Any little misstep brings back the feeling of "not again" and they actually try too hard to play perfectly.
By now, Ohio State is fighting as much against themselves and their past as they are against the SEC.
Final prognostication: This is another tough one to predict honestly.
Ohio State's numbers look a little better--at least on the defensive side. Offensively, they're right there with Arkansas.
What does that mean? The argument can rage on forever as to whether Ohio State's schedule was tougher through the Big Ten or whether Arkansas gets a boost from playing in the SEC.
In the end, all of that is moot. It's speculation.
Ohio State's biggest strength will be Terrelle Pryor on the ground, along with Dan Herron. Those two should keep the Buckeyes moving quickly down the field against a less-than-impressive Razorback run defense.
Arkansas doesn't have the same benefit. Mallett will be a handful for the Buckeye defense, but they've faced quality quarterbacks before.
Look for this to be an exciting match, but look for Ohio State to finally get the SEC monkey off their backs.
Prediction: Ohio State 30 - Arkansas 27
The Final Big Ten Tally
9 of 9
If I'm correct, the Big Ten will come out of bowl season much the same way they came out of the 2009 season.
I predict the conference to go 4-4 overall in their bowl games.
I also expect them to finish 2-0 in BCS bowls for the second straight year.
Will that be the best bowl record in the country? No, absolutely not.
However, the Big Ten is mismatched in several of their bowl games and coming away with wins in their biggest bowls will go a long way toward continuing to improve their image on the national scene.
Eight teams, eight bowls and eight opportunities to shine. Here's to bowl season and all the excitement it brings!
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