College Football Bowl Games Handicapped: How To Bet and Win Like a Wise Guy

As Chad Millman points out in a recent episode of his “Behind the Bets” podcast on ESPN, one of the fundamental things that differentiates the wise guy or "sharp" bettor from the "square" is that the sharp guys look to make plays on the early side, often when lines are first released.

This is because most sharps are mathematical-types who construct their own power ratings, and therefore, are immediately prepared to take advantage of any number they find the slightest bit faulty.

In turn, it is often suggested that the square bettor, who waits until game day, is a sucker because the line has lost all value. And while this is often the case, Millman’s guest R.J. Bell of pregame.com notes that there is one scenario in which betting late can work to the smart bettor’s advantage.

It’s here that the “semi-pro” or even just an educated square, can make some hay. For those of us who don’t have the mathematical inclination or the time to construct our own power ratings, tracking early line movement in conjunction with “consensus” data related to which way the public is leaning, can help to identify early sharp plays that are likely to offer a backend spike in value. This is about as good as it gets for the non-sharp bettor.

We’ll call this the “Late Play” system. So, essentially, what you want to do is to go to a handicapping site that provides line movement and consensus data. Look for games where the public consensus is decisive (at least 60 percent on one side), but the early line movement is trending in the opposite direction of the public money.

Then sit tight, monitor the line and if it spikes back in the direction of the sharp play as the late public money pours in, pounce.

If you have any handicapping skills of your own, and you can find a good reason to back the pro-sharp/anti-public side, you’ve got yourself what I like to call a “Perfect Storm” bet: The sharps are on it, the public is against it, sound handicapping supports it and the line value is strong.

Let’s take a look at a few upcoming bowl games that demonstrate the pattern:

Hawaii Bowl: Hawaii vs. Tulsa

Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

SOUTH BEND, IN - OCTOBER 30: John Flanders #21 of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane holds the ball after intercepting a pass in the end zone against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as teammates Charles Davis #24 (center) and DeWitt Jennings #27 join the celebratio

Opening line at Pinnacle: Hawaii -12

Current line: Hawaii -10

Consensus: 63 percent Hawaii

No secret why the squares would prefer Hawaii as the public gravitates to the Warriors whenever they play on their home field. But indications are that the sharps prefer a Tulsa team that started slow but got hot around mid-season, covering eight of their last nine and knocking off Notre Dame along the way.

Tulsa has more than enough offensive firepower to keep this one close and a big advantage on special teams as well. Plus, this one’s on Christmas Eve, so checking the line repeatedly in the hour or so before kickoff will provide a convenient excuse to get away from the in-laws.

Wait this one out, if the line goes back up to 12 or more before kickoff, jump on Tulsa, grab some eggnog and put the kids to bed. Santa’s on his way.

Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Arizona

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

TUCSON, AZ - DECEMBER 02: Quarterback Nick Foles #8 of the Arizona Wildcats throws a pass against the Arizona State Sun Devils during the college football game at Arizona Stadium on December 2, 2010 in Tucson, Arizona. The Sun Devils defeated the Wildcat

Opening line at Pinnacle: Ok. St. -6

Current line: Ok St. -4.5

Consensus: 77 percent on Oklahoma State

This, folks, is the “Perfect Storm” play of the college bowl season.

The public overwhelmingly favors Oklahoma St. and yet the line has moved one-and-a-half in the opposite direction. This indicates wise guy money coming in on Arizona. Solid handicapping supports this move.

The public is down on Arizona due to a four-game skid to end the season, leaving them at a mediocre 7-5 overall. But let’s remember, those four losses were at Stanford, at Oregon, to USC by a field goal and then a 30-29 loss in a rivalry game to an underrated Arizona State team when Arizona missed an extra point that would have tied the game.

Oklahoma State’s 10-2 record looks better on the surface, but who have they beaten?

Answer: Washington State, Troy, Tulsa, UL-Lafayette, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas, Kansas and a game against Texas A&M where they were outgained 535-353 and out first-downed 29-21 but benefited from four picks from since-deposed Aggie quarterback Jerrod Johnson. 

The Wildcats were embarrassed by Nebraska 33-0 in last year’s Holiday Bowl, and they’ll be hungry for a good performance here against a Cowboy squad that was hoping for something more.

Assuming the line swings back to six or better, and I think it will, this is my top play of the bowls.

Military Bowl: Maryland vs. East Carolina

Geoff Burke/Getty Images

BLACKSBURG, VA - SEPTEMBER 18: Running back Giavanni Ruffin #1 of the East Carolina Pirates runs with the ball for a touchdown past defensive tackle Dwight Tucker #53 of the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium on September 18, 2010 in Blacksburg, Virgin

Opening line at Pinnacle: Maryland -7.5

Current line: Maryland -7

Consensus: Maryland 61percent

Only a half point move here, but it’s a big half point, with the sharps jumping on the hook early.

The Terps look better on paper, but they could be one of the least motivated teams of the bowl season as they were hoping for something better, and now, they get to travel all the way to lovely Washington D.C. in December.

Meanwhile, East Carolina is a young team and damn happy to be here. The Pirates are leaky on defense but explosive on offense. If the number shoots back up over the key number of seven before game time, it’s a take. This one has backdoor written all over it.

Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State vs. Syracuse

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

CINCINNATI - OCTOBER 30: Anthony Perkins #55 of the Syracuse Orange celebrates during the Big East Conference game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Nippert Stadium on October 30, 2010 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Opening line at Pinnacle: Kansas State -3

Current line: Syracuse -1

Consensus: 60 percent Kansas St.

This is a tricky one. Massive line move here, as the sharps jumped all over Syracuse at the primo line of +3, pounding it so mercilessly that Syracuse is now the favorite. No reason to disagree with the sharps, as Syracuse should be extremely motivated playing in New York City for the inaugural Pinstripe Bowl.

Problem is, we’ll need an avalanche of public money to get this number back to the original +3 value. I’m not sure the public will be strong enough on Kansas State to make it happen, but if it gets there, take it. If not, lay off, but take Syracuse in your office pool.

Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. Central Florida

Joe Murphy/Getty Images

MEMPHIS, TN - DECEMBER 29: George O'Leary, head coach of the UCF Knights, watches the action from the sideline during the game against the Mississippi State Bulldogs on December 29, 2007 at the Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis, Tennessee. The Bull

Opening line at Pinnacle: Georgia -7

Current line: Georgia -6.5

Consensus: 73 percent Georgia

Once again, only a half point move, but a significant half point coming off of seven. If you’re looking to take Georgia, now is the time to do it. I doubt you’ll see anything sub-seven on game day once the public chimes on the marquee SEC team.

On the other hand, if you’re looking to swim with the sharps, you might just see Central Florida +7.5, in which case you’re getting a very sharp late number.