AT&T Cotton Bowl 2011: Aggies May Hand LSU Another Loss yet Miles Is Optimistic

Cotton Bowl Analysis, Prediction and Keys to the Game

This year’s AT&T Cotton Bowl will pit the No. 11 LSU Tigers against 17th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies.

For the 11th-ranked LSU Tigers, an impressive defense has overcome many of the troubles of a lackluster offense to secure a 10-2 season.  The 17th-ranked Texas A&M Aggies at 9-3 have used an explosive offense to make up the difference for an average defense.  The statistical comparison of these teams would indicate that the betting lines having LSU as a one-point favorite are in error.

What follows is a breakdown of each team, keys to winning and a game prediction for this year's AT&T Cotton Bowl.

LSU Offense

LSU has a bevy of wide receivers such as 6’5” 205 lb. Terrance Tolliver.  Tolliver dropped more than his fair share of catchable balls but seemed to be more on the same page with Jarrett Lee than Jefferson.  Sophomore Reuben Randle has been a clutch receiver and Russell Sheppard has been under-utilized.  DeAngelo Peterson seemed to develop a case of “dropsy” after returning from injury.  All of these receivers must find the open holes in the field, know the game plan and catch the balls that are thrown their way.

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Texas A&M Offense

Since the season opener Jordan Jefferson has had every opportunity to take the reins and prove what he is capable of.

After five games he began sharing the duties with Lee at quarterback. While both showed glimpses of potential, neither has been effective enough for the coaching staff to have complete confidence in.  Jefferson has thrown four touchdowns against nine interceptions.  Lee has connected for only two touchdowns and one interception.

Lee gets a bit of leeway here since Miles has been quick to pull Lee at the first opportunity for most of that time. Either quarterback will need to bring whatever A-game they have against an Aggies pass defense that’s ranked 94th.

Stevan Ridley and Micheal Ford are important aspects to the Tiger offense.  Ridley has over 1,000 yards for the season, but hasn’t had a 100-yard game since October against Tennessee.  Ford averaged 6.3 yards per carry but he has played roughly a half-season and doesn’t have a lot of carries to indicate that such a figure will hold up.  LSU will need Ridley and Ford to carry a heavy workload, keep drives going and keep the Aggies' high-powered offense on the sidelines to win.

Overall Texas A&M is ranked 20th in offense, churning out an impressive 447.6 yards per game average.  Ryan Tannehill, the current starting quarterback for the Aggies, did not play in the first six games other than some “courtesy minutes” in the S.F. Austin win. 

Tannehill took over at quarterback following three losses in a row and hasn't lost a game since moving into the starting role.  He has completed just over 65 percent of his passes for 1,434 yards and 11 touchdowns and thrown only three picks.  He is not a large running threat as evidenced by a 0.8 ypc average on 44 runs.  He has scored one TD on the ground. 

The Aggies quarterbacks have combined for an average of 282 yards per game.  Texas A&M is averaging 31.8 ppg.  However, the Aggies offensive line has allowed 35 sacks this year.

Cyrus Gray took control as the “feature” back for the Aggies about the same time as Tannehill stepped into the starting QB role and has been an important cog in the Aggie offense.  He's carried the ball 180 times for over 1,000 yards with 12 rushing touchdowns and added 33 receptions for 242 yards with one TD.  Gray has rushed for over 100 yards in each of the final six regular season games, scoring 10 TDs.  Texas gave up 223 yards rushing to Gray in their last meeting.

The Aggies' go-to receivers have been Jeff Fuller, who caught 65 balls for just short of 1,000 yards and a dozen touchdowns, and Ryan Swope, who caught 67 for 780 yards and four TDs.

LSU Defense

Some statistics can be deceiving.  First however, there is no argument that the Tiger defense is, by far, the main reason that LSU will even see a bowl game this year.  This defense very well may have made the difference between a 10-2 and 6-5 season record. 

UNC was held to 24 points in Week 1.  That is slightly misleading since UNC did not have their full starting squad due to NCAA sanctions.  Regardless, a game-winning stop in the waning moments preserved the win for LSU. 

Mississippi was held to only seven points.  It could be said that the Tiger D kept Auburn in check, limiting Auburn to just 24 points.  Actually Auburn was comfortably driving for yet another score in the closing minutes and simply ran out the clock rather than pushing for another score.  Overall the Tigers have allowed just less than 18 ppg this year and that ranks in the top 10.

Drake Nevis at defensive tackle is tied for a team lead in sacks, forced fumbles and leads in tackles for a loss with 13.  The Tigers sorely miss DE Sam Montgomery but the defensive front has still been fearsome for the most part.

Kelvin Sheppard at linebacker has averaged 10 tackles per game for the season with five fumble recoveries and one interception.  More importantly he is the defense team leader and has a good nose for the ball.

Patrick Peterson has four interceptions for the year but his superior coverage abilities and speed combined to easily be considered the best defensive back in the nation.  Peterson will probably spend the day covering Jeff Fuller.  Keeping Fuller in check without double coverage frees up the rest of the Tiger secondary.  Tyrann Matthieu has been the Johnny-on-the-spot corner making key plays for most of the season.  LSU has more than a few very good coverage backs in the secondary besides these mentioned.

Texan A&M Defense

The Aggies' best defensive effort of the season was against Oklahoma, holding the  Sooners to only 19 points.  Nebraska's offense was held to two field goals, winning the game 9-6.  Overall the Aggies have given up a stingy 20 points per game this season.

Von Miller, the linebacker who just won the Butkus Award, is the heart of the Aggies defense.  Miller racked up 59 tackles, one interception and 11 sacks on the season.  Michael Hodges is the team’s tackling leader with 111.  Dustin Harris has four picks on the year, one of them for a touchdown.

LSU Special Teams

Josh Jasper has been the best kicker in the country this season.  He has made 83.9 percent of his field goal attempts, including 17-for-18 from less then 40 yards.  Jasper is also the Tigers short punter and has consistently pinned opponents deep in their own territory.  This year Les Miles’ bag of tricks has had a special teams play in each instance.

Texas A&M Special Teams

Randy Bullock, the place kicker, has made just 15 of his 19 field goal attempts, but 100 percent in 47 of his extra point tries.  Ryan Epperson has been the primary punter this year punting 41 times, for 37.5 yards per kick on average.

Cyrus Gray and DB Coryell Judie have split time returning kickoffs.  Gray averages 24.8 yards per return and Judie has averaged 31.4 yards per return scoring twice.  WR Kenric McNeil has returned more punts than any other Aggie this year.  He has only averaged 5.8 yards.

Keys to the Game 

LSU

On Offense

LSU must establish a passing game to be of any competition to a team that most regard as extremely balanced, no matter which side of the ball they are on. 

Jefferson has only proved to be inconsistent at best.  His strongest asset is his running ability on the option.  Other than a gallop for a touchdown on defensive breakdown, JJ has proven to be handy to have in the game on a busted play.  The rest of his rushing attempts have been average at best. 

Lee on the other hand, has shown a much better grasp of the passing game, has a quick release, a better touch and better targeting skill that will probably be needed against this defense.  His passing decisions have been called into question especially a tendency to force the ball.  To be fair, the LSU coaching staff has not seen fit to give Lee enough game reps. 

If LSU thinks they have the personnel to run the football well, it would stand to reason to leave the rushing to the running backs and leave the defense guessing at the snap.  Playing Lee the majority of the game would certainly help accomplish this.  When it comes down to it, a smart Aggie team will load up the box and force LSU to pass the ball but there are many ways for the Tigers to run the football.  Ridley, Ford, Blue, Sheppard and even Peterson can and should have a role. 

The key is to get the defense to respect the passing game enough to open some holes.  Keeping the defense on its heels will yield a big return for the Tigers.  And as a last offensive word, receivers have to make the tough catches.  Poor passing can only account for some incompletions.  In the end, as a great college coach was once supposed to have said…If you can touch it, you can catch it.

On Defense

The Tigers defensive unit has put forth a superlative effort all year long.  The main thing that they have to deal with is an offense that presents a balanced attack.  Coach John Chavis will probably have an array of blitz packages set, but the defense will have to play for 60 minutes.  They will be facing an offense that is not unlike the attack of Arkansas and it appeared that the defense broke down late in the third quarter, leading to a Razorback win.  If Nevis and company can successfully jam up the middle and not be “trapped” off the tackle, pressure from the outside should keep Tannehill looking over his shoulder.

On Special Teams

Field position will be especially important in this contest.  On paper it looks like the Aggies don’t have much of a punt return but have run up some respectable yardage on kickoff returns.  One can only question if either of the KR specialists might show up on a punt.  Solid, stay-in-your-lanes coverage should be sufficient. 

If LSU is kicking off enough, the task may be easier, but steady, consistent coverage of the kick will insure that Texas A&M will have to march the length of the field.  Jasper has proven not only to be the nation’s top kicker, but his ability at finding the "coffin corner" or pinning opponents deep on short punts has been a real plus. 

Then there is Patrick Peterson.  He will certainly a be a plus, but is rivaled on kick return average by two of the Texas A&M KR specialists.  Peterson’s efforts in this area may turn out best in the punt return game.

Texas A&M

On Offense

No matter that the sports line favors the Tigers in this one.  A&M has been on a roll with a controlled, (how many times will I say) balanced attack, equally utilizing the talents of Tannehill, Fuller and Gray.  The A&M offensive line will have to be a bit more cohesive when it comes to providing pass protection.  A vulnerable Tannehill will lead to problems for the Aggies as the former starting quarterback has been riding the bench for the past six games.  Otherwise a formula of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” should be effective.

On Defense

Von Miller is the biggest individual threat that the Aggies have.  The defense has shown up very well against the rush but some improvement is necessary in the secondary.  It doesn’t appear as important from a stats perspective, but if LSU gets a passing game going, it could be a long day for the Aggies.  With Jordan expected to start, one expects that the best defense is to force LSU to throw the ball and stack up against the run.  Hollis should be busy against any of several Tiger receivers with the potential to do great damage.  With a Les Miles-coached team it is always prudent to stay alert to the possibility of the unconventional play call.

On Special Teams

The kicking game for the Aggies is open to some debate.  Field goals aren’t a real problem.  Bullock has missed four this season but still has hit 79 percent.  He is perfect in point-after attempts.  Eperson’s 37.5-yard average is deceiving as a high, slightly shorter punt can many times produce more than a deeper punt that can be run back.  On kick returns both Gray and Judie have respectable averages, splitting time on the kick return duties.  The improvement needed for special teams is in the punt return department.  There have been a few that have taken up the job, but on average, punt returns are only coming back for five or six yards.  The Aggies will have to improve here or the offense will find itself with long drives ahead just to get in scoring range.

Overall Thoughts and Prediction

Opinions rendered here are exactly that.  To be fair, I have laid out those opinions for both teams, not just the Tigers, who my heart is with and whom I write for and about.  It's opinions in part that draw us to the game.  Here are some parting thoughts.

LSU head coach Les Miles has been called "The Mad Hatter," "Lucky Les," "The Gambler" and a lot worse for his use of the unconventional play, or more plainly when he reaches into his bag of tricks.  The fake field goal was inches away from being illegal.  Still it was the play that led to the win.  The fake punt was instrumental in the win over Alabama.  Again this year, poor clock management almost led to two losses—almost.  Argue with his play selection all you like but you’ll still be staring at a 59-16 record in Baton Rouge.

Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman shuffled the staff in Aggieland before this year began and has a wealth of coaching talent beneath him.  Sherman’s reputation proceeds him as much if not more than his assistants.  Dat Nguyen is well known to Dallas Cowboy fans and came to head up the linebacker coaching duties among other talented assistants.  Troy Walters of Indianapolis and Minnesota fame is in his first year as wide receiver coach.  Tim DeRuyter is an experienced DC, credited with improving more than one of the teams he has worked with.