2010 Bowl Schedule: Predictions Against the Spread for the AP's Top 25
As the college football bowl season begins its elongated conclusion, spreads involving the AP’s Top 25 teams read like a Christmas list for the gamblers at heart.
It has been an up-and-down year for this weekly B/R Against the Spread Pick ‘em writer, but a fun adventure nonetheless.
A 132-128-6 record to end the regular season falls well short of my lofty 60-percent goal, however, I have to be somewhat happy to finish above .500.
Let’s hope these bowl picks keep that record afloat.
Last Week’s Record: 8-3
Season Record: 132-128-6
National Championship Game: No. 1 Auburn (-3) vs. No. 2 Oregon
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This is the matchup that most of the nation wanted, and it should live up to its explosive expectations.
Auburn has undoubtedly traveled the tougher road to the National Championship Game, displaying unmatched toughness, unbelievable determination and an uncanny resolve.
However, Oregon's strike anywhere/anytime offense certainly has the talent to keep up with Cam Newton's crew.
This game has the potential to come down to which team has the ball last. Oregon should put up a good fight, but this could be Auburn's year.
Pick: Auburn -3
Rose Bowl: No. 3 TCU (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Wisconsin
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It is hard to complain about a No. 3 facing off against a No. 4, but there are some that believe a more traditional Rose Bowl matchup could have been just as interesting.
Wisconsin's defense could be the toughest that TCU has seen all season, which might be able to slow down Andy Dalton's deadly arm.
Even if this game becomes a shootout, the Badgers should be able to hang. Their offense ranked fourth in the FBS (43.4 p/g), scoring 40-plus points in half of their games.
Pick: Wisconsin +2.5
Orange Bowl: No. 5 Stanford (-3) vs. No. 12 Virginia Tech
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Everyone knows that Andrew Luck is the fuel behind the Stanford Cardinal's engine, but few realize the dominance put forth by their new-look defense (ranked ninth in the FBS with 17.8 p/g).
The only top-10 defense that Virginia Tech faced this season was Boise State, and that outcome was one that the Hokies would rather forget.
While this game should play awfully close, Luck and the Cardinal might have just enough talent to win their first BCS bowl game.
Pick: Stanford -3
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ohio State (-3.5) vs. No. 8 Arkansas
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The SEC’s dominance over Ohio State has been evident over the past decade. In their past three bowl games against SEC schools, the Buckeyes have posted an 0-3 record and a minus-44 scoring margin.
Ryan Mallett's talented arm is undeniable. He has thrown for over 300 yards in nine games, collecting 30 touchdowns in the process.
Although Ohio State’s defense is pretty legit (ranking third with 13.3 p/g), Arkansas is more than capable of continuing the trend, keeping the SEC’s record against Ohio State this decade spotless.
Pick: Arkansas +3.5
Capital One Bowl: No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Alabama (-10)
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When you stack up the numbers between these two teams, their stats are close to identical.
However, when you compare schedules and when you look at the talent that the Tide has on offense and defense, this game becomes a little more one-sided.
The Spartans could be over their head in this one and will most likely struggle to keep up with a faster and more talented Crimson Tide.
Pick: Alabama -10
Fiesta Bowl: No. 9 Oklahoma (-17) vs. No. 25 UConn
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It might be a little harsh to say that UConn snuck into this BCS bowl, but it definitely will not be out of line to say there will be no way they leave this bowl unscathed.
The Huskies have been mediocre at best on both sides of the ball for most of the season. They should struggle to keep pace with Landry Jones and Oklahoma’s pass-happy offense.
Although 17 points does seem high for a BCS bowl game, the Sooners should be able to easily cover this line with the tilt of talent leaning heavily in their favor.
Pick: Oklahoma -17
MAACO Bowl: No.10 Boise State (-17) vs. No. 20 Utah
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Utah’s defense has been susceptible to giving up a plethora of points to offenses that run through a highly talented quarterback. With this in mind, keeping Kellen Moore in check could be a problem.
The Utes offense might find it difficult gaining any traction on their side of the ball, as well, facing the No. 3 defense in the nation.
As long as the Broncos don’t enter this game with a chip on their shoulder, they should be able to pull away to a big victory.
Pick: Boise State -17
Cotton Bowl: No. 11 LSU (-1) vs. No. 17 Texas A&M
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Texas A&M has been arguably one of the hottest teams entering the bowl season.
The Aggies are riding an impressive six-game winning streak, which includes knocking off two teams ranked at No. 8 (Oklahoma and Nebraska).
The only team that played both LSU and Texas A&M is Arkansas. Both teams lost, but Texas A&M seemed to put up the better fight.
However, it is always hard to tell what kind of magic LSU’s head coach Les Miles will conjure—somewhat justifying this “toss-up” spread. This may be one of the most underrated bowl games this year.
Pick: Texas A&M +1
Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl: No. 15 Nevada (-9.5) vs. Boston College
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Nevada’s unbelievable season is about to come to a close, but there is still one last hurdle that the Wolf Pack have to jump.
Although Nevada has not had huge success against BCS schools in the past, they did annihilate California this season, and who can forget that day-after-Thanksgiving game against BCS-caliber Boise State.
Boston College’s offense seems slightly overmatched and should play from behind for most of this game.
Pick: Nevada -9.5
Insight Bowl: No. 14 Missouri (-1) vs. Iowa
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Although the stank of suspensions whirl around this bowl game, this matchup still possess a great deal of potential.
While both teams are fairly even on offense and on defense, the one stat that sticks out the most is sacks. Missouri’s defense has reached the quarterback 37 times, but Iowa has only pulled in 19 sacks.
When all is said and done, the quarterback that is rattled the least will most likely lead his team to a victory.
Pick: Missouri -1
Alamo Bowl: No. 16 Oklahoma State (-5.5) vs. Arizona
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Oklahoma State’s season has been unforgettable, thanks to the unbelievable talent of sophomore wide receiver Justin Blackmon.
Blackmon was by far one of the best receivers this year, leading the FBS in touchdowns (18) and yards per game (151.4).
Arizona, on the other hand, limped their way to the finish line, losing their final four games in pathetic fashion. The Wildcats have struggled to keep up with fast-paced offenses in the past and should have their hands full in this one.
Pick: Oklahoma State -5.5
Holiday Bowl: No. 17 Nebraska (-14) vs. Washington
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Nebraska’s second straight Holiday Bowl has a great chance of ending exactly the same as its first.
Last year in San Diego, Nebraska embarrassed Arizona in a 33-0 rout, and those Wildcats definitely looked better entering this game than this year’s Washington Huskies.
Jake Locker was a bit of a bust this season, but he will need to play a major part in order for the Huskies to cover this spread. If Locker comes out looking like Mel Kiper’s preseason pick, then Nebraska could be in trouble. If he comes out looking like he did for most of the season, this game could get ugly.
Nebraska’s defense should create havoc, keeping this game out of reach, easily beating Washington for the second time this season.
Pick: Nebraska -14
Chick-Fil-A Bowl: No. 20 South Carolina (-3) vs. No. 23 Florida St.
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Both South Carolina and Florida State are licking their wounds after rather disappointing championship games.
With Christian Ponder’s return for this bowl game still a vague question mark, this line leans more in South Carolina’s favor each day it creeps closer to game time.
South Carolina’s offense packs a one-two punch with Stephan Garcia and Marcus Lattimore, and without Ponder, the Seminoles' hopes of keeping this game close become highly unlikely.
Pick: South Carolina -3
Gator Bowl: No. 21 Mississippi St. (-5) vs. Michigan
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Mississippi State strung together an impressive season in 2010, losing only to ranked teams and putting up a decent fight in most of those games.
Michigan also lost the majority of their games to ranked teams, but they were healthily blown out in their last two games against Wisconsin and Ohio State.
The Wolverines’ defense has been their Achilles heel all season, and the Bulldogs’ deadly rushing attack should exploit several holes before this game is through.
Pick: Mississippi State -5
Champs Sports Bowl: No. 22 West Virginia (-2.5) vs. NC State
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While West Virginia’s defensive numbers are impressive and should hold most of their weight in this game, they have not exactly faced off against the highest level of offenses this season.
North Carolina State might not have the best offense in the FBS, but Russell Wilson ranks 15th in yards per game (274.0) and might be able to create problems for the Mountaineers secondary.
If the Wolfpack can pull it together after a disappointing end to conference play, this game should play in their favor.
Pick: North Carolina State +2.5
Hawaii Bowl: No. 24 Hawaii (-10.5) vs. Tulsa
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Hawaii earned the title of 2010 WAC co-champions with the help of one of the most underrated offenses in college football.
The Warriors passing offense ranked first in the nation (387.8 y/g) and should blow away Tulsa’s pass defense that allowed an average 340.8 yards per game on the road.
Add the fact that this is actually a home game for Hawaii and this game could be well in hand before halftime.
Pick: Hawaii -10.5
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
