Upgrading to a Pac-12: A Premature Look at College Football Out West in 2011
The 2011 season should be an unusually interesting one in the world of college football, what with the Big Ten becoming a 12-team league and the Big 12 dropping its numbers to 10.
The only conference with the gumption to adjust its name to better suit its membership is the Pac-10...err...I mean, the Pac-12.
After adding Colorado and Utah to the mix, commissioner Larry Scott made the appropriate change in the conference's moniker and split it into two divisions—North and South—with the champion of each facing off against the other in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
All of these changes should do quite a bit to change the dynamics currently at play between the various schools out West—the frequency of rivalry games and visits to distant states, the regions from which one school or another derives its recruits and so on.
Though the bowl season has yet to begin for any of the teams that will call the Pac-12 home, it's never too early to get a jump start on how the season is likely to shake out for each of the conference's participants.
Hence, here's a pre-pre-preseason look at the 2011 Pac-12 football season, with the teams listed in order of how they are likely to finish in the conference standings.
12. Colorado Buffaloes
1 of 12
Colorado should expect something of a rude introduction in its first season as a member of the Pac-12.
After finishing their stint in the Big 12 with a 5-7 record overall and a 2-6 mark against conference foes in 2010, the Buffaloes will march into a new league with a new head coach (Jon Embree) and a new starting quarterback following the graduation of Cody Hawkins, the son of recently fired coach Dan Hawkins.
If that weren't enough to suggest that 2011 will be a rough year in Boulder, have a look at CU's schedule.
As of right now, the Buffs are set to play only four true home games, including dates at Folsom Field with USC and Oregon. The remainder of the schedule includes a game on neutral territory at Invesco Field in Denver against Colorado State in the Rocky Mountain Showdown, non-conference road nightmares at Hawaii and Ohio State and Pac-12 away games at Stanford and Utah.
In other words, Colorado would be fortunate to replicate anything close to its 2010 record next season.
11. Stanford Cardinal
2 of 12
Perhaps no team in the country is set for as precipitous a drop in performance next season as Stanford.
After accumulating 11 wins in the regular season and earning a berth in the Orange Bowl, the Cardinal will likely be left to tackle their slate of games in 2011 without quarterback Andrew Luck, top wideouts Doug Baldwin, Ryan Whalen and Konrad Reuland and perhaps even head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Such does not bode well at all for football in Palo Alto, which will be in for a startlingly lean year with dates at home against Oregon and an improving Notre Dame squad and road games at Arizona, USC and Oregon State.
At least Stanford fans will still have their world-class education to brag about.
10. Washington
3 of 12
Like Stanford, Washington will enter the 2011 season without its own star quarterback, Jake Locker.
Unlike the Cardinal, however, the Huskies won't have memories of a historic 2010 season to fall back on.
Assuming Steve Sarkisian's squad loses to Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, the Huskies will waltz into the Pac-12 having finished 2010 with a 6-7 record behind them and a daunting slate of games ahead.
It's tough enough that U-Dub will have to play host to Oregon and Arizona while visiting Utah, USC and Oregon State in conference. Outside of a season opener against Eastern Washington in Seattle, the Huskies will host Hawaii and travel to Lincoln to face Nebraska in the non-conference portion, affording the team even fewer chances to pad its record and become bowl eligible.
As underwhelming as Locker was at times for Washington, Huskies fans will be pining for the good ol' days when they see Keith Price trying to guide the football team through the perils of the upcoming season.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
9. Cal Golden Bears
4 of 12
Year in and year out, it seems that the Cal Golden Bears football team falls flat on its face after being picked in the preseason to contend in the Pac-10.
2011 doesn't look to be any different, though perhaps the expectations for the Bears won't be quite as high.
And they'll be in the Pac-12, not the Pac-10.
With the graduation of the chronically underwhelming Kevin Riley, head coach Jeff Tedford will likely hand the reins at quarterback off to Brock Mansion, a 23-year-old from Dallas with only moderate on-field experience heading into his senior year.
Luckily for Mansion, he'll have some experience to work with at the skill positions, with running back Shane Vereen and wide receiver Marvin Jones likely returning for their senior seasons.
With or without those players, Cal will still be up against arguably the toughest schedule of any in the conference. The Bears will face off against most of the Pac-12's toughest teams–Oregon, Oregon State, USC, Arizona State and Utah–while contending with a non-conference schedule that, outside of a date with Fresno State, has yet to be finalized.
Considering the Golden Bears' paltry 3-6 mark in conference play in 2010, don't expect too much of an improvement, if any, in Strawberry Canyon.
8. Washington State Cougars
5 of 12
It's put up or shut up time for Washington State in 2011. The Cougars have accumulated a dismal 5-32 record in Paul Wulff's three seasons in Pullman, including an anemic two wins in conference.
That being said, Wazzu is due for a significant improvement in the win column next year.
For one, the team showed marked improvement down the stretch of the regular season, beating Oregon State in Corvallis and hanging at home against Cal and in-state rival Washington.
Secondly, the offense should continue to get better with the return of quarterback Jeff Tuel and wide receivers Marquess Wilson and Jared Karstetter.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Cougs boast what is perhaps the most lenient schedule of any team in the Pac-12, with all of its toughest games, save for dates at Oregon and at San Diego State, coming in Pullman and without any meetings with USC or Arizona.
Though this far from guarantees that Wulff will finally get his team back to a bowl game, the Cougs should at least manage to improve on their 2-10 mark from this year.
7. UCLA Bruins
6 of 12
Regardless of how Wulff does at Wazzu next season, no seat in the Pac-12 will be hotter than Rick Neuheisel's.
The UCLA football coach and alumnus returned to Westwood with big promises and bold predictions, including a nefarious bit of palmistry that suggested his Bruins would contend for a Pac-10 title in 2011.
Aside from the fact that Neuheisel clearly didn't have the prescience to think that the league would be expanding, his team will be hard pressed to challenge for the conference crown.
The Bruins took a serious step back in 2010, finishing ninth in the Pac-10 at 2-7 in conference after going 7-6 overall in 2009 with a win in the EagleBank Bowl.
An outward parade of coaches—defensive coordinator Chuck Bullough and wide receivers coach Reggie Moore—and players—kicker Kai Forbath and, most likely, defensive stars Akeem Ayers and Rahim Moore—will only serve to destabilize an already fragile balance for the Bruins.
Road games at Utah, Oregon State, Arizona and USC don't exactly bode well for the Bruins either, especially if Norm Chow can't find and mold a healthy and capable quarterback out of Kevin Prince, Richard Brehaut or incoming freshman Brett Hundley.
On the plus side, UCLA does return its entire stable of backs, including 1,000-yard rusher Johnathan Franklin, and a defense loaded with young talent, led by defensive ends Datone Jones and Owamagbe Odighizuwa. Additionally, the Bruins won't have to worry about another embarrassment against Oregon, as the Ducks don't appear on UCLA's 2011 schedule.
All in all, the Bruins could very well improve on their 4-8 mark from 2010 but aren't likely to challenge Oregon for the conference crown, as Slick Rick so boldly predicted upon his arrival, which could very well result in Neuheisel getting sacked anyway.
6. USC Trojans
7 of 12
Across town, the USC Trojans may also be in for a tough time in 2011.
The Men of Troy will march into the Pac-12 with a litany of absences due to graduation—Stanley Havili, Allen Bradford, David Ausberry, Shareece Wright, Ronald Johnson, Kris O'Dowd and Michael Morgan, among many others—and early defection—Tyron Smith and Jurrell Casey.
While there are certainly still plenty of talented players whom Lane Kiffin can plug in to replace those who will be gone, it won't be easy to replace so many of them at once from a team that went 8-5, including 5-4 in the Pac-10.
Not to mention Kiffin won't have nearly the stockpile of high school All-Americans that Pete Carroll used to play around with, thanks to the stripping of scholarships by the NCAA.
On the bright side, the Trojans will have Matt Barkley back as a junior to throw the ball and Robert Woods and Blake Ayles to haul in Barkley's passes.
USC will need anything and everything it can get from those guys, as the Trojans are scheduled to host Utah and Arizona and travel to Oregon and Notre Dame.
Fight on, indeed.
5. Arizona State Sun Devils
8 of 12
Arizona State football in 2010 was all about broken hearts and missed opportunities.
The Sun Devils finished the season at 6-6, but only twice did the team lose by double digits—against Oregon by 11 and at Cal by 33. The list of close losses included one-point defeats at Wisconsin and at USC, a three-point loss at Oregon State and a four-point deficit to Stanford.
The biggest culprit? Dennis Erickson's team was dragged down by physical and mental mistakes, as indicated by a season turnover margin of minus-six and a veritable rash of penalties, especially late in games.
ASU's shot at Pac-12 contention will be bolstered by the return of quarterbacks Steven Threet and Brock Osweiler, running back Cameron Marshall and minimal player losses to graduation.
The Sun Devils have their fair share of tough games, including road dates at Utah and Oregon and home games against USC, Missouri and Arizona.
However, should Arizona State clean up its act on the field next season, it could be in for a big improvement in the win-loss department.
4. Oregon State Beavers
9 of 12
Like Arizona State, Oregon State endured a rather tough season of its own, leaving Beavers fans waiting with bated breath each Saturday to see if their team would be Jekyll or Hyde.
Many of the intermittent struggles of Mike Riley's team could be attributed to player turnover, including the replacement of quarterback Sean Canfield with Ryan Katz and the midseason loss of star wide receiver James Rodgers.
Then again, it's rather difficult to explain the transition from a 36-7 win over USC one week to a 38-0 thumping at Stanford the next.
Either way, OSU should be somewhat improved in 2011, with both Rodgers brothers, including running back Jacquizz, back healthy to bolster the options for Katz under center.
While away games at Wisconsin, Utah and Oregon don't exactly improve the Beavs' chances of success, they should still finish significantly better than 5-7.
3. Arizona Wildcats
10 of 12
Arizona endured something of an inconsistent season in 2010 as well, though a graph of the Wildcats' performance would show a long upward slope followed by a downward dive to close the slate.
Mike Stoops' squad looked like Pac-10 title contenders after a 7-1 start, but those dreams quickly disintegrated with a four-game losing streak to end the season.
The 'Cats will be serious underdogs to Oklahoma State in the Alamo Bowl, though a win over the Cowboys would do wonders to send the team back to Tucson with momentum heading into 2011.
Like every team in the Pac-12, 'Zona will be up against a tough schedule in its pursuit of a conference crown, with road dates at USC, Oregon State and Oklahoma State to complement home games against Utah and Oregon.
Luckily for the Wildcats, they'll have the services of Nick Foles, Juron Criner and Keola Antolin to rely on in their pursuit of happiness.
2. Utah Utes
11 of 12
Utah joins the Pac-12 looking like an instant contender for the South division crown.
The 19th-ranked Utes will face 10th-ranked Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl, with a 10-2 record to boot, after finishing just behind TCU to close out the program's tenure in the Mountain West.
Say what you want about Utah's schedule, which included blowout losses to the Horned Frogs and the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame, but the Utes should be right toward the top of the newly expanded league at year's end.
Games at BYU, USC, Pittsburgh and Arizona will be tough, but the difficulty of those games will be tempered by the absence of Oregon on the schedule.
Add in the return of quarterback Jordan Wynn, and coach Kyle Whittingham's club should be in good shape to challenge for the Pac-12 title in 2011.
1. Oregon Ducks
12 of 12
Win or lose in the BCS National Championship Game, the Oregon Ducks will undoubtedly by the favorites to win the Pac-12 in 2011.
The losses of wide receiver Jeff Maehl and linebacker Casey Matthews to graduation will be tempered by the returns of Heisman Trophy contenders LaMichael James and Darron Thomas.
That being said, the road to a third straight conference crown won't be easy, with non-conference tilts against LSU and Nevada before jumping into a conference slate that includes dates away at Arizona and home against Arizona State, USC and Oregon State.
Nonetheless, expect Oregon to come out on top again in 2011.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
