Bowl Matchups 2010-11: Which Top 25 QBs Will Star and Who Will Flop?
Bowl season is set to kick off this Saturday with the New Mexico Bowl, and already the excitement is palpable. I’ve heard at least a dozen random conversations on the street where people have been discussing the epic Auburn-Oregon showdown for the national championship.
In fact, it’s a level of anticipation I haven’t experienced in years. From the diehard fan to the casual observer, excitement for the BCS title seems to have reached a fever pitch.
Oregon’s electric offense has peaked the curiosity of fans nationwide while Cam Newton’s on-field performance and off-field shenanigans have stolen the headlines on a nightly basis.
Newton was awarded the Heisman over the weekend, and has established himself as the nation’s premier quarterback. But what about the bowl game? How will Newton fare against top-ranked Oregon? Which quarterbacks will shine in their time under the spotlight and who will struggle? Who will star and who will flop?
For an analysis of the quarterbacks from each of the top 25 ranked BCS teams, read on.
13. Stud: Tyrod Taylor
1 of 25
Virginia Tech's Tyrod Taylor helped the Hokies overcome an 0-2 start to win 11 consecutive games and earn a bid to the Orange Bowl. The dynamic signal caller racked up over 3,000 yards and threw for only four interceptions, helping him win the ACC player of the year award.
Perhaps Taylor is most comparable to Oregon’s Darron Thomas. Thomas threw for 238 yards, rushed for 117 and added four touchdowns and two interceptions in a 52-31 victory over Stanford.
While the rushing yardage will likely be just under 50 yards, 240 yards with two touchdowns and one turnover seem a likely outcome for Taylor.
12. Dud: Greg McElroy
2 of 25
Greg McElroy may not have the biggest arm in the country, or even in his conference, but he is definitely amongst the most accurate. This season the Alabama QB completed a staggering 70 percent of his passes while throwing only five interceptions.
He’s a smart player and a conservative signal caller, which can at times be his downfall. McElroy took 30 sacks this season despite having a massive offensive line protecting him. Part of that is due to playing against premier defensive linemen in the SEC, but part of that is indecision.
McElroy is cautious not to throw the ball up for grabs, but often takes unnecessary sacks in the process. Michigan State’s pass defense has shut down a handful of top QBs including Wisconsin’s Scott Tolzien (11 of 25 for 127 yards), but with weapons like Julio Jones and Mark Ingram, I doubt McElroy will have the same problems.
Look for McElroy to throw for 230 yards with two TDs in a Crimson Tide victory.
12. Stud: Colin Kaepernick
3 of 25
My beloved Boston College Eagles could be in for trouble when they face Colin Kaepernick and the Nevada Wolfpack.
Boston College has a phenomenal linebacking core, but their secondary is suspect. The Eagles play a bend but don’t break brand of pass defense that yields many interceptions (third in the ACC with 15), but also allows for teams to pick up easy yardage on short pass plays.
Colin Kaepernick finished eighth in Heisman voting after passing for 2,830 yards and rushing for an additional 1,184. He is the first QB to pass for at least 2,000 and rush for at least 1,000 for three consecutive years, and this season became the first player to pass for over 9,000 yards and rush for over 4,000 in a career.
He’s probably the most underappreciated player in the country and should post big numbers against a solid BC defense.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
11. Dud: Geno Smith
4 of 25
After getting screwed out of a BCS bowl by Connecticut, West Virginia will look to prove its merit against the North Carolina State Wolfpack. Unfortunately, I see Mountaineers QB Geno Smith playing more of a field manager role while running back Noel Devine receives most of the attention.
West Virginia doesn’t want to get in a shootout with Russell Wilson, but WVU does have a tremendous advantage in the ground game. Devine is an electric back that should be able to run amok against NC State.
I like Geno Smith a lot, and he’s been a tremendous decision maker all season. The Mountaineers just have a better matchup to exploit.
11. Stud: Darron Thomas
5 of 25
Caught in the shadow of running back LaMichael James, Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas has been impressive in his own right.
The 6’3" sophomore tallied over 3,000 total yards this season, while adding 33 touchdowns. The dual threat may not be the most refined quarterback, but every week he finds a way to produce results.
10. Dud: Chris Relf
6 of 25
All season long Mississippi State has relied on their rushing game, and I don’t expect that to change when the Bulldogs take on Michigan and their porous rush defense.
As a runner, MSU’s Chris Relf is above average, as the junior rushed for 683 yards on 179 carries (3.8 yards per carry). However as a passer, Relf leaves a lot to be desired as he is inaccurate and a poor decision maker.
He picked up his production late in the season, but does not rank amongst the top half of quarterbacks for top 25 schools.
If you’re looking for a prediction, expect along the lines of 175 passing yards, 75 yards rushing and two turnovers. Not bad, but not great.
10. Stud: Ryan Mallett
7 of 25
Although most fans and draft analysts like Andrew Luck to be the top overall pick in the NFL draft, I’ve never been bashful expressing my preference for Arkansas’ Ryan Mallett. The 6’7" Mallett has great pocket presence and an absolute cannon for an arm.
This season Mallett passed for 3,592 yards while completing two-thirds of his passes, earning a staggering 170.5 QB rating in the process. Still, Mallett could be in for a down game against a tough Buckeye defense.
Defensive end Cameron Heyward is a menace who wreaks havoc on opposing quarterbacks. The 6’5", 290-pound senior is amongst the nation’s best pass rushers, and helps lead a defense that allows only 250 total yards per game.
Mallett will throw all day, but he could be in for a down game compared to his typically tremendous production.
9. Dud: Stephen Garcia
8 of 25
South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia has been solid all season, but against Florida State he could be in for a tough game. The Seminoles held Florida to 8 of 16 passing for only 64 yards with a score and a pick in a 31-7 blowout.
Garcia has been highly efficient all season, completing 65 percent of his passes, but I expect the Gamecocks to defer to freshman back Marcus Lattimore, who was the lone bright spot in SC’s 56-17 drubbing at the hands of Auburn.
9. Stud: Terrelle Pryor
9 of 25
The Arkansas Razorbacks may have a stout pass defense, but expect Terrelle Pryor to have a big game regardless.
The Hogs have had some trouble against scrambling quarterbacks this season, allowing 188 yards rushing and three touchdowns to Cam Newton.
Pryor has evolved into more of a pocket passer this season, but I expect the 6’5" quarterback to get it done with his legs against Arkansas.
8. Dud: Christian Ponder
10 of 25
I’ve never been a fan of Christian Ponder, and never understood all the hype surrounding him. Despite being the ACC pre-season player of the year, Ponder posted very pedestrian numbers. In a down year for the conference, Ponder threw for only 2,038 yards while rushing for under 200.
The 6’3" senior has only three games over 200 passing yards, and could struggle against a talented South Carolina defense.
The Auburn game warped the Gamecocks' defensive stats, but this is a talented unit that should once again keep Ponder under 200 yards.
8. Stud: Andrew Luck
11 of 25
Stanford’s Andrew Luck against Frank Beamer’s Virginia Tech defense should be one of the most interesting matchups in any of the bowl games. Luck looks to be a lock for the top pick in next year’s draft and will soon be calling Carolina home.
The 6’4" quarterback thrived under head coach Jim Harbaugh, racking up 3,500 yards and 31 touchdowns this season. Luck will be challenged all day by a fierce Hokie pass rush and a secondary that ranked second nationally in interceptions.
It’s not the ideal matchup for one of the nation’s premier signal callers, but I still expect Luck to shine.
7. Dud: Scott Tolzien
12 of 25
Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien could have his hands full with the Badgers' Rose Bowl matchup against TCU. The Horned Frogs rank first nationally in pass defense, holding their opposition to under 130 yards per game through the air. That stat is made all the more impressive when you consider that their opponents are typically airing the ball out to catch up in lopsided games.
Tolzien is a solid QB (2,300 yards, 16 TD and six interceptions), but could struggle against a tremendous TCU secondary. While playing against a top-ranked Ohio State pass defense, Tolzien completed 13 of 16 passes for 152 yards and an interception.
Expect Tolzien’s pass attempts to be limited, as the Badgers rely on their three-headed rushing attack.
7. Stud: Andy Dalton
13 of 25
Mountain West Conference player of the year Andy Dalton leads one of only three undefeated teams in the country in TCU. Dalton totaled over 3,000 yards on the season before injuring his right elbow after being sacked two weeks ago against New Mexico.
Dalton is expected to be fine, but he’ll need to be at 100 percent if the Horned Frogs hope to take down Wisconsin. The Badgers' defense allows only 191 passing yards per game, and could make things tough for the TCU passing game.
Dalton will make his first impression on a national audience against one of the nation’s top secondaries, but should turn in a solid performance. Think 275-300 total yards and two touchdowns.
6. Dud: Kirk Cousins
14 of 25
Kirk Cousins has been an incredibly accurate passer all season, completing just over 67 percent of his passes and leading the Spartans to an 11-1 record. Still, expect Cousins to suffer in Michigan State’s Capital One Bowl matchup against Alabama.
The Crimson Tide have a wealth of talent on defense, the likes of which Cousins has not seen this season (MSU avoided playing Ohio State in the Big Ten schedule).
Cousins did throw for 269 against a good Wisconsin pass defense, but it’s unlikely he can duplicate those results against an Alabama defense that will have him on his back all day.
6. Stud: Brandon Weeden
15 of 25
Want an unheralded player primed for a big performance on the national stage? Then you have to check out Oklahoma State’s December 29th date with Arizona in the Alamo Bowl. I’ve been unimpressed with what I’ve seen from Arizona’s secondary, while Brandon Weeden and the Cowboys' aerial attack has been stellar.
With tons of help from Big 12 player of the year Justin Blackmon, Weeden threw for over 4,000 yards and 32 passing touchdowns. Weeden has a quick release that has allowed him to take only eight sacks all season.
Couple that with arguably the best deep threat in the college game, and it’s easy to see why Oklahoma State could roll over the Wildcats (who were only 4-5 in the Pac-10).
5. Dud: Jeff Godfrey
16 of 25
At 10-3, the Conference USA champion Central Florida Knights barely cracked the BCS standings. The nation’s 25th-ranked team posted a 7-1 conference record to set up a Liberty Bowl matchup with the Georgia Bulldogs.
All season long the Knights relied on a strong rushing attack (192 yards per game), and if UCF hopes to defeat the Bulldogs they’ll need more of the same. Georgia has a sub-par linebacking core that has allowed 150 yards rushing yards per game, while their secondary has held teams to under 200 yards.
Knights QB Jeff Godfrey is highly efficient and incredibly accurate, but he could struggle against a more athletic Georgia team. Anticipate under 200 yards passing with around 25 rushing yards.
5. Stud: Taylor Martinez
17 of 25
Taylor Martinez may have passed for only 1,578 yards, but it’s his legs that separate him from other field generals. Martinez, who is rumored to run a 4.5 40-yard dash, ran for 942 yards and 12 touchdowns this season – establishing himself as one of the nation’s top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country.
His Nebraska Cornhuskers should absolutely decimate a Washington team that needed a last week victory to secure bowl eligibility. The Huskies' defense allows 200 passing yards and 200 rushing yards per game. Both would be realistic goals for Martinez.
In a September game, Nebraska smoked Washington 56-21, with Martinez recording 150 passing yards, 137 rushing yards and four total touchdowns. And that was in Washington!
Admittedly I’m not the biggest Martinez fan, but nonetheless, he should put up massive numbers in the December 30th Holiday Bowl.
4. Dud: Blaine Gabbert
18 of 25
Blaine Gabbert has slipped under the radar all season despite 3,000 yards of offense, so it’s unfortunate that his first widely-viewed game could be an ugly performance.
Missouri takes on Iowa in the December 28th Insight Bowl, and Iowa’s defense could be too much for the Tigers to handle. Defensive end Adrian Clayborn helps anchor one of the nation’s top lines, and Gabbert will have to be extremely quick with his reads.
Against Nebraska’s ferocious pass defense, Gabbert struggled, going 18 of 42 for 199 yards with an interception. Anticipate only slightly prettier numbers against Iowa.
4. Stud: Kellen Moore
19 of 25
Looking for a quarterback primed for a huge game? Look no further than Boise State’s Kellen Moore. The Heisman candidate passed for over 3,500 yards with an eye-popping 33 touchdowns versus only five picks.
He will face off against a Utah team that surrendered 381 passing yards to TCU in their 47-7 shellacking. Moore has an incredibly high football IQ and sees the field with the ability of an NFL veteran.
Expect fireworks as Boise State tries to prove they were deserving of a BCS bowl.
3. Dud: Jordan Jefferson
20 of 25
The quarterbacks for LSU have struggled all season and I expect their Cotton Bowl matchup with Texas A&M will be no different.
The tandem of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee threw for 1,826 yards with six TDs and 10 interceptions, needing to rely on their stupendous defense to bail them out of close games.
The Aggies don’t possess the best secondary, but they’re good enough to hold LSU’s passing game in check.
3. Stud: Landry Jones
21 of 25
By throwing for over 4,200 yards and 35 touchdowns, Landry Jones helped Oklahoma compile an 11-2 record and a berth in the Fiesta Bowl against UConn. Vegas quickly declared Oklahoma 17 and a half-point favorites, but even that may not be enough.
Oklahoma’s offensive line should manhandle the smaller d-line of Connecticut, giving Jones plenty of time in the pocket.
Other than Michigan, the Huskies have yet to play a great quarterback, and that game Denard Robinson tallied almost 400 total yards. Landry Jones has a ton of weapons offensively, including Ryan Broyles (118 catches for 1,452 yards this season) and should throw for over 300 yards against a UConn team that did not deserve a BCS bowl.
2. Dud: Jordan Wynn
22 of 25
Expect Utah to fall behind early and be forced to pass the rock in their bowl game against Boise State. Sophomore QB Jordan Wynn struggled against top competition all season, whether it be TCU (16 of 35 for 148 yards and two picks), Notre Dame (24 of 39 for 194 yards and a pick) or BYU (13 of 30 for 199 yards and a pick). Utah cruised against weaker competition, but struggled mightily against the meat of their schedule.
Against a top-notch Broncos defense (allowing a scanty 259 total yards per game), Wynn could post a season-worst performance. The yardage will be artificially inflated with what I call Kyle Orton yards, but the numbers will be underwhelming.
Think somewhere along the lines of 250 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions.
2. Stud: Bryant Moniz
23 of 25
Surprise, surprise, Hawaii’s passing offense once again put up ungodly numbers. Utilizing the spread offense, Bryant Moniz threw for a FBS-best 4,629 yards – topping the second-place signal caller by nearly 400 yards.
This potent aerial assault is facing a Tulsa defense that allows 305 passing yards per game – ranking them second-worst amongst FBS schools.
Hmmm…the nation’s best passing attack against arguably the worst pass defense? It’s a safe bet that Moniz will air the ball out and should gain over 400 yards of offense.
1. Dud: Ryan Tannehill
24 of 25
The Texas A&M offense took a huge step forward when they replaced the erratic Jerrod Johnson at quarterback with the more composed Ryan Tannehill. Nonetheless, I don’t like A&M’s new signal caller to post big numbers against LSU.
Tannehill posted big numbers against weaker Big 12 teams like Texas Tech and Baylor, but was completely ordinary in games against Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas.
Add to that the rock-solid pass defense of LSU (led by the nation’s top cornerback, Patrick Peterson) and there’s ample reason to doubt the Aggies. Think sub-200 yards with at least two turnovers.
1. Stud: Cam Newton
25 of 25
All season long, the Oregon defense has gone overlooked. With the running game helping to produce absurd offensive output, it’s easy to forget that the Ducks allow only 331 total yards per game. Even so, I like Cam Newton to have a huge game.
Auburn’s misdirection attack has been productive all season, and the Tigers have Cam “Don’t call me the Scam” Newton to thank for that.
The 6’6" 250-pounder has redefined the quarterback position, offering a glimpse of the future at the position. We all know about Newton’s running ability, after all he did run for 1,409 yards and 20 touchdowns. However, it’s Newton’s passing ability that seems to be consistently overlooked.
Despite being somewhat raw as a passer, Newton has good arm strength and managed to complete an impressive 67 percent of his passes while posting a tremendous 28:6 touchdown to interception ratio.
He was the best player all season, and I expect that trend to continue in the National Championship game.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
