Fantasy Sleepers: Is It Ever Too Early to Start Thinking about Draft Day?

There’s nothing harder or more satisfying than drafting a sleeper in March and seeing him produce for you all year. Part of the reason unexpected successes are so great is that they’re so hard to identify before the season starts. I’m going to kick off the fantasy season by picking 5 players whose value is lower than it should be. Now I’m not claiming that these guys are going to make Carlos Pena or Ryan Braun-like contributions, but these are precisely the players who should produce better than most people think in 2008.

Alex Gordon, 3B, Kansas City Royals

I’m not going to tell you that Gordon wasn’t a disappointment last year. Remember, though, he hadn’t tasted anything above AA before last year and had only spent one season in pro ball. The difference between facing Justin Mallett and Justin Verlander is a pretty big one.

Gordon’s 36 doubles will start to turn into homers and his RBI total should jump with Jose Guillen hitting ahead of him.

He was also a strong finisher: Before June 7^th, he hit .173 with a Livan Hernandezesque OPS of .566. After June 7^th, he hit .285 with 12 homers and 10 steals to go along with an .808 OPS.

Even conservative estimates should put Gordon at 20 HR, 80 RBI, 70 Runs, 15 steals and a .280 average. He’s not necessarily the sort of player who should be drafted anywhere in the first 15 rounds, but remember that he’s one year away from being the best prospect in baseball.

Wily Mo Pena, OF, Washington Nationals

Now that he’s going to get the chance to start for the Nats, Pena’s numbers should really improve. The change of scenery helped his numbers out last year. While his OPS with Boston was a mere .676, his OPS with Washington was 856.

He’s got experience by now, but he still hasn’t hit his prime and will only be 26 next year.

Someone with Pena’s raw power should see his homer totals jump at Nationals Park, which is smaller and more hitter-friendly than cavernous RFK. If you look at Pena’s hit-chart from last year at RFK you can see at least two doubles that should convert to homers in his new ballpark.

Of course it would be unfair to expect first-round production from Pena, but he should be good for some Monday-Thursday production at the very least and could even produce 30 or more homers.

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

It’s not often that you see Yankees on sleeper lists, but I think there’s more to Cano than his solid ’07 numbers suggest. He hit 19 HR, with a good-but-not-great average of .306 last year, but there should be a whole lot more coming.

It’s easy to forget what an awful start to the season Cano had. After starting the season with a .249 average and 2 HR through May 29^th, Cano exploded, hitting 17 homers and driving in 75 of his 97 runs in the last 4 months of the season with a .925 OPS. I believe his true performance level to be closer to the last four months than the first two.

He’s always been mentioned as a future batting titlist, but last year’s poor start cost him the chance at the title. In 2008, we can expect Cano to contend for the batting title and contribute a solid homer total with the usual high Run and RBI totals since he’s going to be hitting in baseball’s best lineup as a 25 year old entering his prime.

Pedro Martinez, SP, New York Mets

First a Yankee, now Pedro Martinez? Well yeah, he’s a risk because he only made 5 starts last year. However, he’s among the best pitchers of his generation, and, unlike Clemens and Maddux, still has dominant stuff. In only 28 innings he managed to strike out 32 batters.

Pedro’s not going to win any more Cy Youngs, but he can still be counted on to lower your ERA and WHIP while boosting your strikeout total. He’s definitely not going to win more than his share if he only goes 5 or 6 innings a start, but his potential in 3 of the 4 categories for starters means that he will be a smart late-round pick.

Brad Lidge, CL, Philadelphia Phillies

Blowing 8 of 27 save opportunities for a team that lost 89 games was probably not the outcome Brad Lidge expected from his 2007 season. It’s more than the change of scenery that makes Lidge a smart pick for 2008 though.

Opportunity creates value for fantasy closers, and moving from an 89 loss team to an 89 win team will give Lidge more save opportunities. The Fightin’s don’t have a great rotation, but let’s face it: Houston’s starting five was nothing special either.

Plus, after a rough April, Lidge recorded all 19 of his saves, kept his ERA under 3 and struck out 76 in only 57.2 innings. Even though he hasn’t had a great season since 2005, Lidge has dominated too much not to be considered a break-out candidate in 2008.