Playoff Projection: Using Computers to Print Out Brackets, Not Pick Champions
Every single season, the debate arises in the early part of December.
What is better for college football? The BCS, or a playoff?
The majority of fans would prefer a playoff, and to be honest, the margin isn't even close. However, there are obstacles that make a playoff a real challenge, and possibly nothing more than a pipe dream for die-hard collegiate football fans.
The largest obstacle (or excuse, depending how you look at it) is always going to be money. The BCS is so valuable to sponsors and schools that it makes it difficult to get away from en route to trying to declare a true national champion.
Other BCS defenders claim that a desertion of the bowl system could potentially taint some of the more valued traditions in college football. Traditions like the Rose Bowl and all that it entails.
Another potential issue that appears with the introduction of a playoff is that it could potentially detract from college football's regular season, which in the current system carries an extremely high value.
Money, power, tradition and other things may keep the fans from the playoff that it truly desires, but nothing can keep us from filling out our brackets and dreaming of the possibilities anyways.
This is my 2010 College Football Playoff Bracket Projection.
The System
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Anytime you propose something new and potentially revolutionary to something as traditional as college football you have to work out some guidelines to help people understand how your system could be beneficial to the game.
Determining the Field:
As previously stated, one of the major concerns with a playoff system in college football is that it waters down a regular season that bears so much responsibility in the current system.
So for that reason, I decided to go with a 12-team playoff, similar to the playoff system in the National Football League, with the top four seeds receiving a bye week.
This provides the teams that clearly emerge during the regular season a tangible competitive advantage that seriously rewards strong play throughout the year.
In my personal system the BCS still holds a lot of value in determining the 12-team field, because the first six spots will go to the winners of the automatic qualifying conferences, with the remaining six openings going to the six top rated at large teams.
To keep one conference from stealing the show, I decided that only two teams from each AQ conference may qualify. Similarly, only two non-AQ schools would be allowed to make the 12-team tournament field. So for instance, Michigan State and LSU would not qualify for this year's tournament because they would be the third team from their respective conference to do so.
The Field
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After picking the 12 teams that qualify for the playoff the seeding would be determined by each teams BCS ranking. Assuming that when the BCS ranking are released tonight go as planned, this would be your 12-team field and the seeds.
- Auburn
- Oregon
- TCU
- Stanford
- Wisconsin
- Ohio State
- Arkansas
- Oklahoma
- Boise State
- Missouri
- Virginia Tech
- UConn
The top four seeds (Auburn, Oregon, TCU and Stanford) receive automatic byes into the second round. Therefore, the first-round match ups would shake up like so:
8 seed Oklahoma vs. 9 seed Boise State (Winner advances to play Auburn)
5 seed Wisconsin vs. 12 seed UConn (Winner advances to play Stanford)
7 seed Arkansas vs. 10 seed Missouri (Winner advances to play Oregon)
6 seed Ohio State vs. 11 seed Virginia Tech (Winner advances to play TCU)
The Predictions: First Round
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The first round of this potential 12-team playoff bracket features some extremely intriguing match ups.
If this hypothetical scenario were ever to come to fruition, I suppose one of the major questions would be: do you reward the higher-seeded teams here with home games, or do you preserve the integrity of the bowl system by holding the games at neutral sites?
In my personal opinion I would prefer to see all games of the tournament played at neutral sites that previously hosted bowl games to preserve the economy of the cities that depend on these bowl games to increase holiday tourism. Nostalgia aside, let's head to the match ups.
#8 Oklahoma vs. #9 Boise State:
This is one of my favorite first-round games because it features a rematch of what may have been the most exciting football game I have ever seen, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.
Certainly a lot has changed with these two teams since then. The game's biggest stars, Adrian Peterson of Oklahoma and Jared Zabransky of Boise State, have moved on since then, but the one constant from those teams are head coaches Chris Petersen and Bob Stoops.
Boise State was a field goal away from from busting the BCS again, but a late-season loss to Nevada left it on the outside looking in.
Oklahoma played inspired football the final two weeks of its season with a come-from-behind regular season win against in-state rival Oklahoma State and a big victory in the Big 12 Title game against perennial power Nebraska.
I believe in redemption, and Mr. Brotzman may never get a real chance to redeem himself, but in one man's mind, he's got a chance to be a hero again.
Prediction: Boise State 31, Oklahoma 30 (Winner plays Auburn)
#5 Wisconsin vs. #12 UConn:
There isn't a lot to discuss here. The Big East was downright terrible this year, and UConn just happened to be the least terrible of all. The Huskies lost four games this season, including a loss to Temple.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, has really hit its stride since its loss to Michigan State, beating Ohio State at home and Iowa on the road as well as putting 83 and 70 on conference foes Indiana and Northwestern.
This one is not close, so the Big East may as well just take its check and run.
Prediction: Wisconsin 48 UConn 14 (Winner plays Stanford)
#7 Arkansas vs. #10 Missouri:
To be honest, when I started this list, I had no idea that Missouri was a top 12 BCS team this season, and when I worked out who belonged and who didn't, I was shocked to see them make the cut.
I know Blaine Gabbert is a stud and that the Tigers beat Oklahoma when they were No. 1 at home in Columbia. I did not realize, however, that they had the sixth best scoring defense in the country.
The story about Arkansas is exactly the opposite. This team is all offense, and there is no mystery. Ryan Mallet, Knile Davis and company can score with anybody, and were able to pull out huge wins this year in South Carolina and at home against LSU.
This game is a pretty interesting match up and I think it's close, but Arkansas found a way to put up an awful lot of points against some awfully good defenses and I think they do it again.
Prediction: Arkansas 31, Missouri 23 (Winner plays Oregon)
#6 Ohio State vs. #11 Virginia Tech:
Ohio State had some real national title aspirations coming off last year's Rose Bowl win against Oregon. In real life, those hopes were trounced when it laid an egg in Madison, but with their talent, the Buckeyes are still alive in my fantasy world.
Virgina Tech on the other hand lost their opener to Boise State in a nail-biter, but followed it up with a loss to FCS James Madison. However, after that they reeled off 11 straight wins including an ACC title. That could be because they hit their stride, or it could be because the ACC is awful.
I am leaning towards the latter. Too much Ohio State and too much Pryor here.
Prediction: Ohio State 28, Virginia Tech 14 (Winner plays TCU)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
On to The Quarterfinals
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The second round once again features some real dream matchups and certainly would go a long way towards sorting out the debate of who is the best team in football. Here are my quarterfinal predictions.
#1 Auburn vs. #9 Boise State:
At one point during the season, this was a big debate. Oregon appeared to be the clear-cut best team based on the way it was dominating everyone, and the nation wondered who was more deserving between the Broncos and Tigers.
Auburn wound up pulling way in that race and eventually eclipsed Oregon in the BCS rankings due to the nature of the SEC and the quality opponents that Auburn had to defeat en route to winning that conference. Cam Newton proved he was the best player in the country by week 7 or 8 and never looked back.
Boise State went into the season with more pre-season hype than any other non-AQ school in the history of the BCS and really shined in an opening week victory against Virginia Tech. That win lost its luster when VT lost to James Madison, and it cost Boise in the polls as it slowly slid back before losing in the second-to-last week of the season in Nevada.
Boise State constantly amazes me, and there is no way it wouldn't be revved up for a game of this magnitude, but in the end nobody stops Cam Newton.
Prediction: Auburn 38 Boise State 30 (Winner plays Stanford/Wisconsin)
#4 Stanford vs. #5 Wisconsin:
If Auburn and Oregon had lost last night this inevitably would have been the great debate. Who deserves to play TCU for the national title?
Wisconsin looked absolutely dominant during the final seven weeks of the season following the loss to Michigan State. It ground its way to tough victories over Ohio State and Iowa and then turned on the jets while dismantling its remaining opponents.
Stanford got thumped in Eugene by the Ducks, but then again, nearly everybody go thumped by the Ducks. Stanford then proceeded to rip off seven straight wins of its own and brought some physicality to a conference that is oft viewed as soft.
This would be the game of the year in the eyes of most football purists. Two physical football teams absolutely beating on each other, but eventually, I like Wisconsin's two headed running attack to take this one down.
Prediction: Wisconsin 20 Stanford 17 (Winner plays Auburn/Boise State)
#3 TCU vs. #6 Ohio State:
TCU came into this season rather quietly despite busting the BCS for the first time itself in 2009 and returning the bulk of its talent. All TCU did was take care of business, and when the dust settled, TCU was one of three unbeaten teams in college football, which is no small task no matter what conference you belong to. TCU also sports the No. 1 scoring defense.
Ohio State, once again, just did what OSU does—win football games. The Bucks may have been the most talented team in the country this season, but at times the offense was stagnant, and that is what cost them a chance at a title in the RL (real life in nerd talk.)
However, in this world, Ohio State's talent gets a slight edge over TCU's drive and determination. This one is down to the wire.
Prediction: Ohio State 17, TCU 14 (Winner plays Oregon/Arkansas)
#2 Oregon vs. #7 Arkansas:
This game features two dynamic offenses that score their points in two drastically different ways.
Arkansas is considered to be an offense that utilizes it's aerial attack to expose weaknesses on the outside of opposing defenses, and Ryan Mallet certainly lived up to his billing. However, the emergence of Knile Davis at tailback later in the year proved to be a huge asset for the Razorbacks.
Oregon, on the other hand, predominantly features a spread option attack meant to get the ball to its play-makers, like Heisman candidate LaMichael James. But don't sleep on QB Darren Thomas, who proved that he can be a dangerous weapon in his own right with either his arm or his legs.
I have no doubt that Arkansas can put up some points against the Ducks, but I have less doubt that Oregon can score more.
Prediction: Oregon 48, Arkansas 34 (Winner plays TCU/Ohio State)
Semifinals: The Final Four
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#1 Auburn vs. #5 Wisconsin:
This is a difficult match up for the Wisconsin Badgers here. Throughout the year, Auburn's defense has been susceptible to giving up points, but typically the thing that beats them is a very accurate quarterback and a big time No. 1 receiver.
Scott Tolzien has been fantastic for the Badgers this season, but I do not know if he has the go-to receiver that he needs to capitalize on the weaknesses of Auburn's secondary.
One interesting potential match up in this contest would be Wisconsin's huge veteran offensive front against Auburn's irritating defensive line led by Nick Fairley. In order for Wisconsin to have a chance in this game, it would need to dominate the battle in the trenches to give James White and John Clay the room they need to rumble.
Auburn, as I just mentioned, certainly has some defensive deficiencies, but it has an offense that is so explosive it allows them to mask the problems they seem to have on the other side of the ball. Plus, even though I already mentioned it, Cam Newton appears to be completely unstoppable.
Wisconsin gives them hell, but the Tigers once again score their way to victory.
Prediction: Auburn 35, Wisconsin 24 (Winner plays Oregon/Ohio State)
#2 Oregon vs. #6 Ohio State:
The second semifinal of this potential playoff format brandishes a rematch of last year's Rose Bowl.
Ohio State rumbled to a 26-17 victory last year in Pasadena. Over the offseason, Oregon had its share of problems, and dismissed All-Pac 10 QB Jeremiah Masoli, which left many to believe that Oregon's offense would be in a fragile state to open up the year.
Boy, were they wrong. All Oregon did without Masoli was roll out 10 games of 40-plus points and six of over 50. The Ducks never missed a beat, and as a matter of fact, I think most would agree with me in saying they were even better than they were with Masoli.
Ohio State, on the other hand, opened the year at the other end of the spectrum. The only question in Columbus early in the year was when Terrelle Pryor could pick up his Heisman Trophy.
Pryor still wound up having a great year, but had some mishaps in some crucial situations that cost OSU in its biggest game.
Regardless, this game features two teams with a lot of experience and a lot of talent, and I would expect nothing less than an absolute slugfest, but I like the direction of Chip Kelly and the Ducks here.
Prediction: Oregon 35, Ohio State 28 (Winner plays Auburn/Wisconsin)
The Championship: A People's Champ, Not a Paper's Champ
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OK, yes, technically because this is completely hypothetical it is a "Paper's Champ."
However, if there were a playoff, it would obviously eliminate any possible debate of whether or not the most deserving teams were in the championship in the first place.
If you have been reading my predictions in my fantasy bracket thus far you know that I picked Auburn and Oregon to meet in the title game.
This year, I believe the BCS worked exactly the way it was drawn up and I have little doubt that the two best teams in the country will be playing for the championship.
BUT!!!!
That doesn't change the fact that the current system just has to much speculation to accurately declare a national champion. A playoff is the only way to make sure you have got a true champion, whether it's an "Plus One" system or an 8-, 12-, or 16-team format.
As far as the arguments against a playoff, I understand the major conferences issue and concern with the monetary aspect of it but you can't tell me that there would be less money involved in a playoff over the bowl system.
The driving factor for sponsorship dollars when it concerns all these bowl games is RATINGS. The bottom line is that if you have higher ratings, your sponsors will be willing to pay more money.
As far as the rest of the Bowls go, I don't see any reason why you couldn't keep the 20-plus bowl games outside of the bowl games effected by the playoff, since they have no title implications anyways.
It's time to make the move to the playoff.
As far as my prediction goes, in my projected Auburn vs. Oregon final, I am going to go ahead and take the easy way out.
I have not concluded who I am going to pick in the real game yet, so I won't pick a fake champ either. I will be rooting for Auburn because I would like to see the title stay in the SEC, but I try not to let that affect my actual pick of the game.
I will say this though. I expect the over/under on this game to open somewhere around 70 and I am willing to bet that the over gets a LOT of play. But in my opinion I think these defenses may just surprise us and if I had to place money on it I would honestly take the under.
But that, as well as this whole playoff thought, is just one man's idea.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
