ACC Championship Game: 5 Telling Stats to Watch For in Hokies vs. Seminoles
Virginia Tech and Florida State are set to meet in Charlotte, North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game for the most interesting matchup in the game since at least 2007. The teams are remarkably similar this year—there are two senior quarterbacks, two talented defenses, two run-oriented teams, two great coaching staffs, two fantastic fan bases and, most importantly for ACC fans, two ranked teams.
The Big 12 Championship stole the ABC prime time time slot, and while it does have a fantastic story line and should make for an excellent game, the ACC Championship will be just as exciting.
For the first time since the 2000 season, a team has gone undefeated in the ACC.
While critics can rightly criticize Virginia Tech for the way they played before the ACC schedule, there isn’t much to find fault with the Hokies now. Florida State, on the other hand, is a couple of plays from being 11-1 and a top 10 team. The turnaround under Jimbo Fisher has been remarkable, especially on the defensive end.
With an Orange Bowl bid on the line, both teams will stick to what they do best for the full 60 minutes and try to force the other team off of its game. But there will be some telling statistics to watch for that will likely gauge how well each team fares.
Pass Efficiency
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Christian Ponder and Tyrod Taylor are two of the most efficient passers in the ACC and have carried their teams to victory on multiple occasions. But both players have had their off games which have unsurprisingly come against better pass defenses.
Virginia Tech is one of four teams in the nation to hold opposing quarterbacks to a completion rate of under 50 percent and boasts the seventh best pass efficiency defense. The safe bet is that the Hokies will hold Ponder to a similar performance. Taylor had some issues throwing the ball last week against Virginia and hasn’t thrown deep particularly well this season.
Both teams rely heavily on the run so it’s imperative that each quarterback can convert a third and long when necessary and not turn the ball over in positive territory. History favors Taylor and Virginia Tech here, but an inspired defensive effort from the Seminoles could easily derail that.
Sacks
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Florida State ranks second in the country in sacks, averaging just over 3.5 per game. Virginia Tech has been successful at forcing opposing quarterbacks to make hurried decisions. Taylor is a premiere scrambler but his offensive line has been inconsistent throughout the year in pass protection.
The Seminoles will get their sacks, so while frustrating in the moment, Hokie fans shouldn’t worry too much unless they get six or more sacks. Virginia Tech should also get some sacks during the game but the Florida State offensive line, led by Rodney Hudson, has had its way with many defenses.
For Tech, it will be more important to hurry Ponder on a consistent basis rather than getting a sack every once in a while. For FSU, it will be important to keep Tyrod from scrambling for big yards. Ultimately, the Seminoles will likely get more sacks, but the game should favor the Hokies if they can get pressure.
Runs of 10+ Yards
3 of 6At the beginning of the season, the Hokies were giving up plays of over 50 yards on a regular basis. Since then they’ve cut back significantly on the number of big plays allowed, but they still let too many plays to go from three yards to 30.
Offensively, Tech and its trio of running backs have broken their fair share of big runs as has Taylor, who is the ACC Player of the Year. Without a legitimate deep threat, Florida State will stack the box and give the Hokies nowhere to run.
The experienced Seminoles' offensive line should open up some large holes against an uncharacteristically poor Tech run defense. Chances are they will have a good number of big runs based solely on running room. In order for Virginia Tech to keep up in this department, its runners will have to make some plays in space. Despite Tech’s talent at the skill positions, the edge has to go Florida State based on depth and the lack of consistency from the Hokie linebackers.
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Time of Possession
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This is really an extension of the previous statistic, but is particularly important for Virginia Tech. The linebackers will need a lot of rest in order to keep up with the plethora of FSU running backs and stout offensive line. A lot of that responsibility will fall on the offense, which is why the previous statistic was runs of 10+ yards and not 30+ yards.
Neither team is built on the big play, so forcing one to score quickly doesn’t bode well for said team. If either team can pound away consistently on the ground and gain five yards at a time, expect that team to win. The Hokies have been able to do that later in games but they’ll have to be better than that in order to win.
Don’t expect anyone to dominate the clock, but the Hokie talent should extend a couple of drives and give them the slight edge. The Seminoles should have more big runs, but their drives should consequently go quicker, which also benefits Tech.
Turnovers
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Arguably the key statistic of the game will be turnovers. Virginia Tech leads the nation with a plus-16 turnover margin and Jayron Hosley leads the nation in interceptions. Clearly the advantage has to go to the Hokies, but Ponder is going to be ready to go in the most important game of his career.
He’s probably still kicking himself from the N.C. State game, so don’t expect the senior to make many bad decisions. Virginia Tech will have to capitalize when given the opportunity, and they have proven that they can, but it’s the number of opportunities they get that will be most important.
Taylor only has four interceptions on the year and is incredibly careful with the ball when running. Darren Evans has had a really bad habit of holding the ball too far away from his body, especially in the beginning of the season. Florida State is very talented and could force a turnover, but the Hokie secondary should get at least one pick. At the minimum, the turnover margin will be zero, but will likely favor Tech.
Prediction
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Neither team can afford the mistakes that lost them winnable games earlier in the season. Virginia Tech should win if it can bottle up the run and force Ponder into errant throws. Florida State should win if its offensive line consistently opens up holes in the Tech defensive line.
Vegas has Virginia Tech as the four point favorite and the Hokies should win three of the five aforementioned statistics, but they won’t win those stats by much.
The VT vs. FSU series has been an exciting one that outside of the 2005 ACC Championship Game has come down to the fourth quarter (that’s what happens when Marcus Vick is your quarterback). Expect this to be a typical game in the series and for it to have quite the atmosphere.
Given Florida State’s recent troubles closing out games, the edge should go to Virginia Tech, but not by much. If either team wins by more than a touchdown it will likely be because of a late turnover. The safe bet is on Florida State to cover but lose the game.
Odds of winning: Virginia Tech – 60 percent, Florida State – 40 percent
Score: 34 – 31 Virginia Tech
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