Alabama Football: An Early Preview of The 2011 Crimson Tide
The regular season is over, and the Crimson Tide have been left wanting. Though they dominated the first half of the Iron Bowl, the game turned 180 degrees in the second half. There will be no SEC championship, let alone a national championship. Star players who were expected to out-do themselves failed to meet expectations, despite having good overall seasons.
Mark Ingram barely made half the yards he did last season. Marcell Dareus didn‘t make nearly the amount of sacks he did last year, even though he was a starter this year. Dont’a Hightower has not been as productive as he was in the first four games last year, and was an impotent defensive play-caller compared to Rolando McClain or even his (very talented) true freshman competitor CJ Mosley. To top it all off, an offensive line with three returnees from last year's national champions allowed more sacks and failed to produce a good run game with arguably the two best running backs in the nation.
However, new talent has emerged and shown its ability (and inexperience). When given more time next year, they are expected to shine. Let’s also not forget about the talent returning.
Alabama fans have been drooling over next year since the upset loss to the Gamecocks, and the loss to LSU sealed the deal. Though incoming talent can be hard to gauge, current talent is not, so let’s take a look at my projections for the stars of the 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide football team.
Quarterback: AJ McCarron
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Quarterback is an important position for any football team, even the run-oriented Crimson Tide. That was apparent when Tide fans cringed when John Parker Wilson graduated and was replaced by an untested consolidation prize from the Tebow recruiting effort. Or when Auburn shut down then-Heisman hopeful Mark Ingram in the 2009 Iron Bowl.
Greg McElroy proved he was quite capable, and AJ McCarron filled in nicely this year as a backup and is most certainly going to be the future under center.
He has the height at 6’4”, but is rather slim at only 190 lbs, which will certainly increase during the Saban offseason. The pressure will be on the offensive line to protect the small quarterback. Don’t let his weight fool you though, he has enough arm strength to go for the deep pass, though far from the best in the league. Limited in playing time and used only in sure wins, he showcased his ability before the Iron Bowl by completing 24 of 38 passes for a 63.2 completion rate. A 163.93 passer rating isn’t too bad for a redshirt freshman. However, the majority of his passes were intended for Julio Jones. How will he fare without him next year when taking every snap?
The biggest problem I’ve heard people have with McCarron is “He scares me”, referring to his high percentage of risky deep throws. Aside from his poor scramble choice and throw into triple coverage during the Mississippi State rout, I’d greatly wager McCarron stuck to the designed play, deep pass or not.
Expect the normal short and screen passes next year that we’ve seen the past two years. It’s just a staple of the Alabama passing game and McCarron will do just fine.
Quarterback: Phillip Sims
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Let’s also not forget about Phillip Sims. I feel he’s worth mentioning because it’s not likely he will win the starting job, yet it’s entirely possible for McCarron to get hurt.
Though Star Jackson was considering transferring, the four-star Sims’ commitment was the nail in the coffin. At 6’1” he’s a bit short for a quarterback, but Drew Brees is the same height. Still, he would definitely have trouble seeing over some of his linemen, specifically 6’6” right tackle DJ Fluker. As far as weight goes he’s a typical 218 lbs, though he has a little bit of excess hanging from his gut. He’s likely to be McCarron’s backup and is the more mobile out of pocket and the stronger of the two. In contrast, however, he was the #2 pro style quarterback in the nation during recruiting and has excellent pocket presence.
Overall, Alabama quarterbacks most likely won’t be getting many stats, as usual, but they should have good completion percentages with most teams loading the box to stop the run.
Offensive Line
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Unlike 2009, the Alabama offensive line has struggled this year. In ‘09 they gave up 14 sacks in 14 games, and they did such a good job Greg McElroy‘s mother sent them all cookies before the SEC championship. Now, they are ranked 96th in the nation with 32 sacks allowed in 12 games. That’s a big drop, having lost only two starters.
Alfred McCullough did not fill in well for injured DJ Fluker, and Chance Warmack has not replaced All-American NFL draftee Mike Johnson very well.
Alabama’s run game through the middle, which was so successful last year, has been awful this year, though the outside runs have produced little more. Next year's line, however, shows more promise than this year's did before the season started.
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Offensive Line: Center
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Not listed among the top 10 centers on most draft predictions, William Vlachos will be most certainly returning in 2011 as a redshirt senior, unless he decides to go to the NFL as a free agent and get a much smaller check.
The squat 6’1” center has been great at leading the line since starting in 2009, earning mentions in Rimington Trophy discussions. Despite the problems with the offensive line this year, Vlachos has not really been one of them.
Rumored to be one of the strongest men on the team, Vlachos has been a very consistent center and has rarely given a bad snap. He’s also excellent pulling to the outside to block for the run, as he’s quite agile despite his sizeable gut.
Offensive Line: Tackles and Guards
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James Carpenter will be leaving left tackle, so there will be a big open spot there. I expect newcomer Arie Kouandjio to easily compete for this spot next year as a redshirt freshman. The kid is an athletic beast at 6’6”, 320 lbs with not a whole lot of fat on him. His brother Cyrus has not committed to a school yet, but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t follow his brother to a Alabama with their o-line needs.
DJ Fluker will return at right tackle, or possibly be moved to left, with even more fat shed. Don‘t let his chubby face fool you, he doesn‘t have much of a gut and is quick on his feet. Never mind that embarrassing moment when Dont’a Hightower sent him airborne onto his back in the spring game.
Barrett Jones will return as a redshirt junior at right guard, and will certainly have added some muscle. Jones has had a very mediocre season following his breakout starting year in 2009.
Chance Warmack will most likely retain his starting job at left guard. As a junior next year, he’ll have the added muscle and experience to perform better.
Tight End: Michael Williams
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You might think it's odd giving a mere tight end his own slide. He’s had little playing time, playing in only six games before the Iron Bowl. With senior Preston Dial leaving this year, Michael Williams looks poised to fill in nicely.
He’s one of the biggest tight ends in the land as well, standing at 6’6” and a whopping 270 lbs. He has very little body fat and makes an excellent run blocker or route runner.
Though Alabama is not a very pass-oriented team and won't be next year either, the team has been known to go to the tight end. Last year’s tight end, Colin Peek, was fourth on the team with 23 receptions for 274 yards, while Dial is sixth this year with 209 receiving yards.
With McElroy mentoring AJ McCarron under a Jim McElwain offense, expect to see some nice McCarron passes to Williams. Remember that great over-the-shoulder grab by Peek in the SEC championship last year for a touchdown? You know, the one on the cover of Sports Illustrated? Expect to see some of those out of this guy. Williams will be a junior for the 2011 season and is certain to impress.
Wide Receivers
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As before, Alabama isn’t an air attack machine, but rest assured the team will miss Julio Jones. Known for his great receiving play, he will be mostly missed for something more crucial to the Alabama offense: downfield blocking. Jones is an incredible blocker as he’s much tougher and physical than most in the opponents' secondary. At 6’4” 220 lbs, he was the toughest on his crew.
Next year's receiver squad will sport a much smaller (physically) class without Julio, but not a huge drop in talent. Darius Hanks, a sure-handed catcher on slant routes, will see considerably more playing time. Earl Alexander will be graduating, and though Kenny Bell and Kevin Norwood have seen minimal playing time this year they show a lot of promise.
The 2011 draft class for wide receivers is brimming with talent, so expect Marquis Maze to return for his senior season. After a very productive 2009 season with some amazing deep ball catches, Maze has been just as valuable in 2010, just with fewer deep balls. He has shown to be an amazing punt returner and pretty much took the job over. He showed us a great return for a touchdown against Mississippi State, though it was overturned due to a bad block. Arguably the fastest member of the team, Maze has the speed to burn corners and agile enough to juke the opposing secondary to get yards after the catch.
Overall, AJ McCarron will miss Julio Jones, but Alabama still has some excellent receivers.
Running Backs
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When you hear Alabama football, you think of the running game. That’s why I saved the best for last on the offensive side of the ball. Of all the losses at the end of 2010, I would dare say losing Mark Ingram to the NFL is the worst. Notice I said would, not will. Fear not, Trent Richardson will not be eligible for the 2011 NFL Draft and will have to stay.
Richardson has been argued by many to be better than Ingram, even back in 2009, though Saban disagrees. He seems to be stronger than Ingram, typically requiring more bodies on him to be tackled. Though just a running back, he’s one of the strongest on the team. He’s rumored to bench 460 lbs. but Saban isn’t known to release weight room stats, so it's just a rumor. Regardless when the camera is on Ingram and Richardson during a big play celebration or just on the bench, TR certainly looks bigger. Must also point out he weighs 10 lbs more than Ingram, and is expected to break 230 before next fall. He’ll have the whole offseason to bulk up, since it’s known that he’s a weight room fanatic.
One thing that made the 2009 running game great, and 2010 passable with a bad O-line, was the dual threat of the “Fast and Furious” duo of Ingram and Richardson. The one-two punch works great, but how will they fare when its just “Furious”? Have no fear, Alabama has a huge line deep with talented running backs, and Eddie Lacy will be spotting Richardson.
Lacy has proven to be a reliable back who runs downhill. He doesn’t seem to be a side to side agility guy, but with a bigger workload and another year of experience he’ll prove otherwise. So far in 2010 he’s averaging 6.3 yards a carry, though most of those came against easier opponents. Demetrius Goode is a skilled downhill back as well, and will be back next year as a senior. Expect him to hold down third string duties.
The running backs for next year look good, and if Richardson’s backups are anything like he was, you’ll see some great plays. Also, don’t forget: running backs coach Burton Burns produces backs that just do not fumble the ball more than once in a blue moon.
Defensive Line
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Alabama will be losing both starting defensive ends this year, Luther Davis to graduation and Marcell Dareus to the NFL draft. Current sophomores Undra Billingsly and Damion Square (6’2” 269 lbs. and 6’3” 284 lbs, respectively) are both skilled. However, Kirby Smart made it clear he didn’t think they were quite good enough, as he appeared to favor Marcell Dareus hobbling around with a wounded ankle earlier in the season to either of them for reasons clearly unknown. Expect one of them to fill Luther Davis’ vacated spot.
So, how do you replace Dareus? Simple answer: an Australian. Not the Steve Irwin type. Not even the tough Crocodile Dundee type. I’m talking the kind of Aboriginal descent who is already giving SEC offensive linemen nightmares without having played a game. Refer to the picture above.
A JUCO transfer by the name of Jesse Williams will have three years of eligibility at Alabama, but expect him to be drafted in 2012. He is 6’3”, 320 lbs. With no gut. At all. He bench presses 550 lbs and runs a 4.9 40-yard. No, that’s not a typo.
Now, before I get too far ahead of myself, there’s a good chance Saban may move this guy to nose guard. Josh Chapman is a very good nose guard with better stamina than Mount Cody had (he nearly had as much playing time as Cody), but a nose tackle is mostly there to plug holes and command double teams. Just going out on a limb, but I really doubt anyone on the team will be capable of commanding as much o-line attention as Jesse Williams will be able to. His arms are so big, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lay two o-linemen on their backs at the same time.
On the flip side, the reason I could see Chapman staying at nose guard is Williams’ speed. He could easily bowl over just about any offensive tackle (or through a guard or center in the middle too) in the nation and has the speed to chase down quarterbacks, or at least force a bad throw. In Saban‘s (and my) opinion, forcing a bad throw is better than a sack. Bad throws often turn into interceptions, sacks just take five or so yards away from the opponent. As such, he would make an incredible pass rusher.
The bottom line, Jesse Williams will be the most athletic player on the Alabama line (maybe the entire defense) and could probably play almost any position on defense, and he will be a critical part of next year's Crimson Tide.
However, he could still break 'Bama fans' hearts by changing his verbal commitment. He knows little about American football, and stated he picked Alabama because they won the national championship and he wanted to “play for the best”. Does that mean he’ll change his commitment to this year’s champion?
Linebackers
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The end of the 2009 season was marked with sadness, as Rolando McClain left early for Oakland. This year will be marked with the same sadness as redshirt sophomore Dont’a Hightower will most certainly leave for the NFL. However, just as Hightower’s recovery dulled the sadness of losing McClain, this year’s true freshman phenom CJ Mosley helped as well.
Near midseason Hightower was moved from McClain’s old position back into his old linebacker spot, while Mosley took the reigns of McClain's legacy. To say that he’s excelled at the position is an understatement. Clearly considered smarter at recognizing plays than Hightower, Mosley seems to be comparable to McClain.
To top it off, Mosley’s freshman stats are better than McClain’s. He’s second on the team with 30 solo tackles and 36 assisted, but with just one and a half for a loss and half a sack and two quarterback hurries.
So what makes him amazing? His superb pass coverage. He has had seven pass breakups, which is good for any member of the team, and two, count ‘em, two interceptions he returned for a total of 76 yards and yes, they were both pick sixes. McClain made some great interceptions as well, but he went down, Mosley did not. The only difference is he’s not quite as big as McClain or Hightower, coming in at only 225 lbs. Fairly small for a Saban linebacker, he’s basically a glorified safety.
A junior next year, Nico Johnson, who filled in for an injured Hightower for most of 2009 as a true freshman and performed admirably, should easily compete for a starting spot.
Also, don’t forget about Courtney Upshaw, who has proven to be a solid linebacker who’s great at forcing fumbles and also holds the crown for biggest linebacker at 6’2”, 263 lbs. Upshaw is also the only player on the team to produce a decent amount of sacks with five. Also, despite the loss, he had one hell of an Iron Bowl, shutting down the revered Cam Newton and his feet while essentially playing as a fourth lineman most of the game.
Saban also reeled in five-star linebacker Brent Calloway, who posts a great 4.6 40 time. But at 6’1”, 210 lbs he’s a bit small for Saban’s defense, and most SEC running backs will outweigh him. He will surely redshirt or at the most get limited playing time until he bulks up.
Next year’s linebacker squad should be a sight to see, and expect CJ Mosley to be the general for the next two years until he‘s drafted. Mark my words, this fella will make you all but forget about the vaunted Rolando McClain.
Cornerbacks
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The 2010 season was full of woe as the young corners gave up big yards on busted coverages. A big part of this is they have yet to fully grasp Saban’s incredibly complicated defense. The coach played corner at Kent State, so he knows the position, and to top it off the man’s a literal defensive genius.
JUCO transfers Dequan Menzie and Phelon Jones had trouble figuring it out, so it was no surprise when the inexperienced true freshman DeMarcus Milliner had problems. Most of the big plays came on busted coverage by him. Overall though, he performed better than a true freshman usually does in the secondary. After a season with lots of playing time and a good offseason, expect Milliner to be the next Kareem Jackson, and drafted in the first round as well. Hopefully his rookie season will be a little better.
His counterparts, Dequan Menzie and especially Dre Kirkpatrick, have played very well considering the dread fans had coming into the season about the secondary. Kirkpatrick is fourth in tackles, with 34 solo, but that also means the guy he’s covering is having the ball passed to him, so he’s not the ideal shutdown corner. However, he is second on the team with interceptions with three, one of which was the game-winning pick from Ryan Mallett to seal the deal and let 'Bama run down the clock against Arkansas.
There’s also a spectacular five-star recruit by the name of Hasean Clinton-Dix coming in, though it’s likely he will redshirt.
Coming into this year the corners looked like the weakest link. While they arguably were, it wasn’t as bad as everyone thought. With another offseason, these guys should be great next year.
Safeties
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Mark Barron possibly going in the first round of the NFL Draft might have some worried. I say why worry when his partner at free safety has arguably overshadowed him? Though Robert Lester is only seventh on the team in solo tackles with 25, compared to Barron’s team-leading 54, Lester has the same quality that made Barron famous last year: interceptions.
One wonders why Barron has only had three interceptions for six total yards. The reason? Lester is stealing all the picks. He has a whopping seven in just 12 games (Barron’s seven last year came in 14 games) for 80 total yards, but sadly no touchdowns. The guy is an absolute ball hawk. Two of those picks came against Ryan Mallett at Arkansas, and though he is a possible first round pick, Mallett is known for bad throwing decisions. Also, don’t forget he has the lone fumble return for the team for 89 yards with no TD.
Expect Lester to be moved to Barron’s position at strong safety, as they are almost identical in height and size. If he’s picking off a likely first-rounder right now, don’t expect him to come back for his senior season in 2012. Also, a little known fact: Lester is a former high school teammate of Julio Jones. Practicing in high school against Jones has clearly made Lester better. Or did Lester make Julio better?
Though 'Bama has some good young talent on the team to take Lester’s spot at free safety, expect the biggest surprise of the year (and my new favorite player) to vie for a starting position. Alabama’s Will Lowery, a product of Hoover High’s powerhouse football program, only received football offers from service academies. Having no desire to go military, Lowery walked on at Alabama.
After years of hard work, he was moved from the scout team and now dresses for games. Though he’s seen little playing time in just nickel and dime formations, he has certainly made the most of it, beating Marcell Dareus’ 18 tackles with his 19, and also added two interceptions. Though one of those interceptions was from a very young and rattled true freshman Penn State quarterback.
He’s got a small frame at 5’10” 188 lbs, and is unlikely to win the starting position at safety against a returning-from-suspension Robby Green. However, no one expected him to play at all in 2010.
To top it all off, I think he had a spectacular Iron Bowl. First, tagging Cam Newton on the ankles and stopping his run. Another big play was a touchdown-saving stop when Mark Barron missed the tackle on receiver Kodi Burns. The announcers didn’t even mention it! Think Rudy, except at Alabama.
Special Teams
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Richardson has got kickoff returns on lockdown, and Maze will have the punt returns next year. They are both great at it and we haven‘t missed Javier Arenas much on special teams. Moving on.
Other than the secondary, kickers were predicted to be the other weak link, and they have been. Punter Cody Mandell has been passable, averaging 39.8 yards a punt, almost three yards less than predecessor PJ Fitzgerald.
The real blow to special teams was the loss of Leigh Tiffin. The kid’s legacy surpassed that of his father, Van Tiffin, the foot behind Alabama’s famous 52-yard “The Kick” that won the ‘85 Iron Bowl as time expired 25-23.
How have his replacements done? Yes, Alabama has two very active kickers, though it might be down to one next year. Jeremy Shelly handles mostly short field goals and extra points. Before the Iron Bowl he only missed one extra point, but is only 10 of 15 on field goals. In the same amount of games his counterpart, true freshman Cade Foster, a product of Greg McElroy’s Southlake Carroll High where he played linebacker/kicker, is 7 for 9 over 40 yards, as well at 7 for 7 on extra points.
The guy has got a very strong leg so he has been handling kickoff duties, and doing a great job. To top it all off he is not at all skittish to get in the thick of things after the kickoff. At 6‘1“ 220 lbs, a game reporter put it perfectly: “kind of beefy for a kicker“. He’s one of the leaders for special teams tackles with six solo and two assisted. Don’t forget his forced fumble on a kickoff against an admittedly weak Georgia State team.
Shelley will probably stick around, but be pushed into a backup role next year, with newcomer Jay Williams competing for playing time.
The Crimson Tide special teams weren’t as bad as people expected, and won’t be next year either with Richardson and Maze returning to hand returns and the kicking squad looking like a kicking squad from an SEC school.
Conclusion
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Before the season, many Alabama fans claimed that even though we lost most of our defense, including all three starting cornerbacks to the NFL draft, the new team was just as good if not better than last season’s. While that’s debatable, the team certainly didn’t win like last year, though their schedule was a whole lot tougher. I’m going to be bold, however, and stake the same claim about next year's team.
The young talent we had this year will be more developed and tougher from Saban’s training regimen. While at least five Alabama players will be going in the draft and several others graduating, the team won't suffer the amount of losses last year brought.
To brighten the situation, let’s remind everyone that Nick Saban has gotten verbal commitments out of two five-star recruits, 12 four-star recruits, and five three-star recruits. The recruiting season is also far from over.
With the close of this season, the Mike Shula era will officially be over with the last of his recruited players leaving. Though not the best coach, Shula was able to recruit some good players, such as Javier Arenas, Glen Coffee, and Greg McElroy. Nick Saban’s ability to sniff out and recruit great players far exceeds Shula’s, however.
Next year’s a long ways off, but it’s never too early to start dreaming. I know the players and fans of the Crimson Tide already are.
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