College Football Bowl Projections: 10 Games That Could Go Into OT
As the 2010 regular season college football campaign comes to a close, it’s time to clean the grease in our chicken wing fryers and prepare ourselves for another festive bowl season.
Regardless of the football aficionados' views or concerns regarding the six win requirement to reach one of the 35 bowl extravaganzas (involving a full 58 percent of FBS teams), he or she will be tuning in to as many of the postseason match-ups as humanly possible.
Logistics and careful planning around family functions, office parties and other non football Yule Tide events will ensure that the dedicated fan can maximize their bowl viewing experience.
But which of the projected (projections according to Scout.com) bowl match-ups are most likely to end regulation all tied up pushing the game to thrilling sudden death overtime?
Suddenly “just another bowl game” becomes the talk of the next morning’s office coffee room or forced family gathering. Yes! This contest has just made fruit cake served by the in-laws digestible again.
Who could forget Central Michigan’s titillating double overtime win over Troy in last season’s GMAC bowl. What was supposed to be the clear “dog” of “BCS week” games became one of the most rousing of the whole of the 2009-10 bowl season.
Every year we can count on at least a few of the well sponsored postseason classics to produce a late game thriller...the following slideshow attempts to boldly pinpoint ten of these showcases that just might go into overtime.
1. Capital One Bowl: Michigan State vs. South Carolina
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There is obviously a great deal of assumption built into this projected match-up, which does not account for the fact that South Carolina still has a shot at winning the SEC Championship this Saturday.
Regardless of whom Michigan State laces them up against, it will more than likely be close.
Yes, Sparty has pushed a great deal of its games straight to the final tick of the clock. They’ve manufactured comebacks (vs. Northwestern), and they’ve allowed them (vs. Penn State).
MSU’s average margin of victory over BCS opponents this season is roughly 11 points, which includes a thrilling overtime victory vs. Notre Dame and big margin wins over Illinois and Minnesota.
If paired up with the Gamecocks (who have also managed some close wins and defeats), quite literally anything could happen in the Capital One Bowl on New Year’s Day.
2. Outback Bowl: Iowa vs. LSU
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If Les Miles did indeed have a deal with the devil in 2010, the offer expired last Saturday when the Tigers were narrowly defeated by the Razorbacks. Indeed, it was Arkansas that finally squashed LSU’s hopes for a BCS bid.
All season long, LSU found a way to win with just a little offense and a big helping of “D”. However, it was close, week in and week out.
LSU’s average margin of victory over its BCS opponents in 2010 was nine points and when you throw out big wins over Vandy and Mississippi State this number shrinks to a mere five point margin.
The Iowa Hawkeyes also managed to keep things tight all season (all be it with less savory results) exemplified by their season ending three game losing skid where the margin of defeat was a total of 10 points.
It’s a match of eerily similar teams: Iowa ranks No. 7 in scoring defense while LSU is No. 9, and the Hawkeyes are No. 49 in points scored while the Tigers are No. 50.
This could be a classic.
I’m going to go on to Ebay and see if Coach Miles is accepting bids on his soul in exchange for a bowl victory.
3. Gator Bowl: Penn State vs. Florida
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The folks down at the Gator Bowl will undoubtedly be thrilled if they can extend an offer to the Florida Gators to play in the Bowl that bears the University of Florida’s name.
Suddenly, the seats are all full as the Gator Nation holds its breath to see if its squad can manage just one more victory on a season that has been painful by the high standards of a football people accustomed to BCS games and accolades.
Both Penn State and Florida have had moments of glory during 2010, but overall have struggled to 7-5 records. Both have defenses that have managed to hold teams to an average of 22 points, but both have sputtered offensively.
So, it will be three Gator quarterbacks (confusing but somewhat entertaining) vs. the Nittany Lions Sophomore QB Matt McGloin who has managed to lead Penn State to some late season offensive production.
Errors committed by both these young teams may keep this close enough to go into extra play.
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4. Military Bowl: East Carolina vs. Georgia Tech
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After losing 28 seniors and its head coach, East Carolina (under Ruffin McNeill) reaching bowl eligibility must be considered one of the truly great feats of the 2010 season. However, reaching 6-6 wasn’t pretty.
Yes, the Pirates won some close ones (51-49 vs. Tulsa, 44-43 vs. Southern Miss and 33-27 in overtime vs. NC State), and they were flat blown out in others (76-35 vs. Navy and 62-38 vs. Rice).
Georgia Tech also finished 6-6 but basically underperformed vs. the much higher expectations they started the season with.
The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the land and will face off with the No. 7 passing team from East Carolina.
Georgia Tech runs in the middle of the pack defensively, while the Pirates are simply not very good at stopping any sort of attack and rank a dismal No. 118 in scoring “D”.
If the Pirates score enough points to stay in this game to the finish it will be neck in neck. There will a bunch of points on the board, and it will likely come down to the last offensive possession; this my friend is a formula for overtime.
5. Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State Vs. Arizona
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The Cowboys were just steps away from finally breaking through to the Big 12 Championship and the BCS; landing in the Alamo Bowl (though a great honor) has to be considered something of a disappointment for T. Boone Pickens and company.
Arizona, on the other hand, has shown moments of sheer brilliance but has skidded through three consecutive losses (to Oregon, USC and Stanford) coming into their final weekend showdown with Arizona State.
Oklahoma State is a great offensive team that scores a plethora of points, but their defense keeps games close.
Arizona has a great passing attack and defensively has held opponents to an average of only 20 points per game.
If these two squads actually meet up after a few days frolicking on San Antonio’s river walk, it well may be a nail biter in the Alamo Bowl on December 29th.
What intrigues me is what will Mike Stoops do with almost a month to break down the offensive whiz Dan Holgorsen’s formidable attack?
6. Chick-Fil-A- Bowl: Florida State Vs. Mississippi State
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This is yet another projected match-up that has a great deal of assumption built into it; however, if it comes to fruition, this will be a chicken sandwich bowl worth watching.
These are both good teams that have played difficult schedules; according to the Congrove Computer Rankings, strength of schedule numbers Florida State ranks No. 8 overall and Mississippi State ranks No. 11.
Both teams have held opposing offenses to between an average of 18-20 points per game and both have scored, on average, almost 30 points per game.
These are both well coached squads who suffered losses to good teams in 2010 (arguably Mississippi State’s loses where against better opponents); they are very similar and should play one another very closely.
Good match-up that could go down to the wire.
7. Pinstripe Bowl: Kansas State Vs. Syracuse
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The Yankees' inaugural college football extravaganza will host two 7-5 squads who must be jacked to be in a post season game.
Though Bill Snyder’s Kansas State team had a very definite goal of becoming bowl eligible in 2010, Doug Marrone and Syracuse’s chances to escape from the Big East cellar looked much less likely.
Both teams have won (and lost) some tight games on their way to seven wins and bowl eligibility.
The Orange have a stifling defense and a balanced yet low scoring offense; the Wildcats can move the ball on the ground but have struggled defensively (especially in the later part of the season).
These programs have earned bowl bids and will be motivated to score eight wins.
Which team, in both cases, will show up?
8. Texas Bowl: Illinois Vs. Baylor
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It seems fitting that the Texas Bowl might host the biggest shoot-out of the 2010-11 bowl season; Illinois vs. Baylor.
It is two great offenses, the Bears offering balance and the Illini doing it on the ground vs. two defenses that have struggled against opponents, especially late in the season.
Illinois was on the losing end of what has to be considered the most thrilling game of 2010, a triple overtime score fest vs. Michigan.
Both these squads could easily put up over 40 points on the other. This one will be long, wrong and oh so exciting.
9. Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Stanford
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It’s unfortunate that the Sooners will have to hit the road to go bowling. Indeed, if they could face off against Stanford (if of course they knock off screaming Bo Pelini and his Cornhuskers in the Big 12 Championship) in Norman, the Fiesta Bowl might be a foregone conclusion.
But Oklahoma will have to pack its bags and travel westward ho against a very good Stanford team.
These teams match-up well together both featuring potent defenses and powerful offenses.
What is interesting about Oklahoma is their tendency all season to allow teams to come back in the fourth quarter to make a game of it. Stanford, offensively speaking, isn’t the type of squad you wouldn’t want to dare to make a late comeback.
Besides being a potential top notch clash in BCS week, this has all the makings of a thriller in the desert.
10. Oregon Vs. Auburn: Tostitos BCS National Championship
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If Auburn can manage a win over South Carolina and the Ducks can knock off rival Oregon State the BCS will get the match-up they (and many of us) desire: Oregon vs. Auburn for all the marbles.
Though the Ducks hold most of the advantage statistically speaking it is important to acknowledge that Oregon’s path to perfection has been substantially easier than Auburn’s.
The Congrove Computer Rankings rate Oregon’s strength of schedule No. 74 overall while the Tigers SOS is a head spinning No. 10.
Regardless, what makes this game so interesting is that we have two teams who both allow their opponents to score most of their points in the first half but then shut them down in the second half (especially in the final period).
Oregon allowed opponents to score 68 percent of points in the first half and only 32 percent in the second. Notably, the Ducks allowed opposing teams only seven percent of their total points in the fourth quarter.
Similarly, Auburn has allowed its foes to score 62 percent of its points in the first half, 38 percent in the second half and only 15 percent in the fourth quarter.
Also of note, both teams are more offensively productive in the first half.
So, what happens when both defenses finish very strong? Will it be decided in the first half, or will it be oh so close after the intermission with both teams scratching out yards and points until the final tick?
Provocative.
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