March to the BCS Championships: What Each Team Needs To Do To Get In

With only two weeks left in the season—plus divisional championship games where applicable—the BCS Championship picture is down to just a handful of teams.

The undefeated Auburn Tigers and Oregon Ducks are leading the way. But the also-undefeated Boise State Broncos and TCU Horned Frogs both have a good shot.

The remaining one-loss teams also have some hope for a championship berth: the LSU Tigers, Wisconsin Badgers, Stanford Cardinal, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oklahoma State Cowboys and Michigan State Spartans.

The Oregon Ducks are the top-ranked team, and they have the best chance of making the final.

Their two remaining games are against the Arizona Wildcats (21) and the Oregon State Beavers. All they have to do is win out and they will be in.

The Wildcats are the bigger test of these two teams. But one look at the NCAA football odds shows the gulf there is between these two teams.

The Ducks are 19-point favorites and Arizona has struggled down the stretch, losing two straight.

Oregon State will play Oregon tough in their annual rivalry game. I would not be surprised to see the Beavers cover as heavy underdogs in an emotional game.

But they do not have the horses to run with the Ducks.

The Auburn Tigers have the toughest schedule down the stretch. If they win out, don’t be surprised to see them take the top seed from Oregon, as their strength of schedule catapults elevates them to the top spot.

They play the No. 11-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 18-ranked South Carolina Gamecocks before likely playing South Carolina again in the SEC Championship Game.

There is actually a decent chance that the Tigers will stumble down the stretch. They are four-point underdogs at Alabama this week.

Even if they stumble and lose a game, their strength of schedule might be enough for them to still take the No. 2 place if they can win their remaining games in convincing fashion.

The BCS-busting Boise State Broncos and TCU Horned Frogs will both need to win out—and win in convincing fashion—to be the first in line should either Auburn or Oregon stumble. Their weak schedules likely mean that voters will use any excuse to drop them out of BCS Championship Game.

The value of early-season wins against ranked opponents seems to be worth a lot less than late-season wins.

TCU is third in the BCS standings and Boise State is fourth, but their positions are reversed in the AP poll.

The Broncos play the 19-ranked Nevada Wolf Pack this weekend. A convincing win would likely put them first in line regardless of how well TCU plays in their final two games.

Out of the one-loss teams, the LSU Tigers would seem to have the best chance of vaulting the BCS busters to be first in line to claim a spot in the championship game. Their last game comes against the 12-ranked Arkansas Razorbacks, giving them a good opponent to remind voters of their worth.

Working against them is the fact that Auburn could lose a game and would still finish ahead of LSU in the SEC West, potentially creating an odd situation where a team that didn’t even win their division ends up in the BCS Championship.

But the BCS has never been afraid of odd situations.

If Oregon drops a game, then LSU backers have to hope that the voters aren’t afraid of putting two SEC teams in the BCS Championship Game, when they have two undefeated independents who have been screaming about being prejudiced for years now.

After LSU, the Wisconsin Badgers would seem like the best candidate for a BCS Championship berth with their win over the then-No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes. All three 10-1 Big Ten teams would seem to have a shot, with the Michigan State Spartans owning a win over Wisconsin and the Ohio State Buckeyes having the all-important BCS Championship pedigree.

However, all three of these teams are hurt by not having a Big Ten championship game to crown a clear winner in the division.

The Stanford Cardinal and Oklahoma State Cowboys both don’t have a win over a top-10 opponent. Therefore, they don’t really have any chance of playing in the BCS Championships, although a BCS bowl invite is likely.

Given all that they have done so far this season and their remaining schedules, Boise State seems like they are in the best position to be first in line should either Oregon or Auburn stumble.

After Boise State, Auburn, if they lose a game, is the next most likely candidate to get the invite because they play in the ultra-competitive SEC West, followed by TCU and LSU.