Maryland-FSU Preview: Can the Terps Really Beat Florida State?

Saturday night. Under the lights. Maryland, Florida State, and a whole lot of chips in the kitty.

We meet again.

As this article illustrates, "again" is truly the operative word. The parallels between tomorrow's game and their last meeting in 2008 are downright Bill Murrayesque. In both instances, Maryland's record is 7-3 overall and 4-2 in the ACC. The ‘Noles are again entering College Park for a Saturday night hypefest billed to Terps fans as a “blackout” game (intimidating!). In both instances, Maryland controlled its own destiny: Win, and they stay in the driver's seat for the ACC Atlantic.

In 2008, Florida State won the game 37-3.

See, that’s where the story needs to deviate a little bit.  Can it?  I say we break it down.

Right now, Maryland has momentum. And that's all thanks to young Danny O’Brien. In his last four starts, O’Brien has 9 TDs and 1 INT.  The Terps’ offense has new life.  If he’s not ACC freshman of the year, I’d love to know who is.

But here’s the rub. Maryland’s offensive line, which has suffered a lot of injuries and wasn’t that stacked to begin with, is thin. Like a wet paper towel. That means, as much as fans would love to watch O’Brien launch long-range missiles to Torrey Smith and company all night long, the fireworks ain't happening. We’re looking at dink and dunk here. We're looking at a chess match. 

We’ll see if the newly job-secure Ralph Friedgen can come up with enough looks and plays to keep the Seminoles’ pass rush at bay. With Brandon Jenkins leading the way, FSU is tops in the ACC in sacks, so giving O’Brien time to work, by any means necessary, is critical.

That said, the Noles are a little down in the secondary. If the Terps can find a way past the first level of FSU’s defense, their chances for success improve a lot.

When FSU has the ball, it all comes down to Christian Ponder, who returns after sitting last week. In that 2008 Maryland game, Ponder threw for 143 yards and ran for 81. Starting RB Jermaine Thomas is still out, so it will be up to Ponder to carry the load.

The Maryland secondary is a bit better than Florida State’s, but still not spectacular. If the corners can hold their own on the islands, it could free up Maryland’s safeties and linebackers (particular Kenny Tate and Adrian Moten) to train their sights on Ponder.

Florida State is the better overall team on paper, though, even if both have identical records. Florida State is 50th nationally in total offense. Maryland is 94th (though miles better since O’Brien took over). Florida State is 35th in total defense; Maryland is 39th. So FSU has the statistical edge, although not an insurmountable one.

Still, Maryland hasn’t beaten a truly formidable team all season, and they have long struggled in prime time generally, and against Florida State specifically.

A lot of that has to do with what I’ll call the misdirection of hype.

Maryland’s marketing brainstrust loves to kick it into overdrive for these types of games. There’s always “blackouts” or other fan promotions, special uniforms, etc. Players and fans start talking a lot of big talk. We’re gonna be on the TV, wheeeee!  Perhaps a smoke machine is rented for the occasion. People are jumping around in the stands. The house is rocking.

And when the game starts, the team looks exhausted.

If Maryland can channel all that adrenaline into their actual play, maybe it makes a difference.  If they stay competitive long enough so that the crowd is still in it at halftime (and by “it,” I mean “the stadium”), maybe all that energy would then go to good use. Maybe, at just the right time, someone breaks a tackle. Or a punt return.

It could happen. Maryland will need to be smart, tough, disciplined, and above all, focused. But it could happen.

Can the Terps really beat Florida State? Yes, they can. But the uniforms and TV cameras aren’t going to do it for them.

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