2011 NFL Draft: 25 Players Guaranteed To Be Busts and One Can't-Miss Star
The 2011 NFL Draft is mere months away at this point, and there doesn't seem to be any reason why we shouldn't gaze into the old crystal ball and try to catch a glimpse of the future.
And let's face it, as much as we love talking about all the Peyton Mannings and the Michael Vicks in this world, I think we would just as soon talk about the Ryan Leafs and JaMarcus Russels.
And that's the name of the game today. Of the players who are set to be taken in the 2011 NFL Draft, who among them has the biggest bust potential? And of all of them, who is the can't miss prospect?
Jake Locker? Nick Fairley? Andrew Luck?
Those are just a few of the names that might grace this list.
25. Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
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Projection: Fourth round
There isn't much hype for Dalton as an NFL prospect right now, which is why I'm putting him at the bottom.
That being said, there's definitely more hype for him now than there was a month ago, and it could only increase if he wins a BCS bowl. He's rated below both Colin Kaepernick and Ricky Stanzi right now, so jumping at least those two isn't out of the question.
But just how good has TCU's competition been during his tenure? We all thought it was pretty great until Utah got beat by Notre Dame, and then Dalton had his troubles against San Diego State.
24. Austin Pettis, WR, Boise State
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Projection: Second or third round
At 6'3" and 200 pounds, Pettis is definitely a big guy for a wide receiver. And despite the fact that he's not going to be much of a risky pick when he does go, in either the second or third round, you just have to wonder whether or not he's going to be of any real use when he gets to the NFL.
He may be big, but his 40 time is barely below 4.6, and he hasn't had the luxury of facing any serious competition in the WAC.
23. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma
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Projection: Mid-to-late second round
Broyles has made a name for himself as Oklahoma's all-time leader in touchdown catches, and he could definitely be a pretty good slot receiver in the NFL.
However, a truly good receiver in the NFL has two things: size and speed. Broyles has neither. He's just 5'11" and a 40-speed of about 4.5.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. Rodney Hudson, G, Florida State
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Projection: Late first round
CBS Sportsline has him as the top guard prospect for the 2011 draft. That would be fine, but Hudson is one of the only guys on the list shorter than 6'4" and lighter than 300 pounds.
Those are good physical assets to have when you're going to be pitted against NFL defensive tackles and blitzing linebackers.
In other words, he needs to put on some size before the combine.
21. DaQuan Bowers, DE, Clemson
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Projection: Early-to-mid first round
This is yet another "beware the one good year" player. While I'm just as in awe of Bowers' size (6'4", 280), I worry about the fact that he has improved at a freakish rate this year. He went from three sacks in 2009 to 14 this year.
With his size, he might almost be better suited to be a defensive tackle, which would obviously take him out of his element.
20. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
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Projection: Early-to-mid first round
Clayborn is definitely something of a beast at defensive end, but his taste for the dramatic could get him in trouble in the NFL.
Clayborn sometimes gets himself in trouble chasing sacks and he survives on his brute strength more than anything else. Neither of those tendencies is going to fly in the NFL. If he can't make adjustments, we could have a bust on our hands.
19. Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
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Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Ayers is pretty big for a linebacker at 6'5" and is definitely an imposing presence as far as the Pac-10 is concerned.
That being said, having watched the Pac-10 at length this season, I can't really make the claim that it's one of the more physical conferences, and Ayers could be in for quite the shock when he hits the NFL.
Besides which, there's already some grumbling that he might be better suited as a defensive end. While he's played at the position sparingly with the Bruins, a full-time transition always has the potential to backfire.
18. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
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Projection: Early first round
Castonzo is the best offensive lineman available, and he is a giant of a man at 6'7".
However, despite his height, he doesn't weigh more than 310 pounds at his heaviest, which means he's a little slim for his size.
Unless he puts on some more weight, he might be too prone to being pushed over.
17. Cameron Jordan, DE, California
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Projection: Late first round
Jordan's stock has risen pretty high thanks to his 2010 season, in which he's been the key disruptive force in a very talented Cal defense.
The best game I've seen Jordan play all season was against Arizona, where it seemed like he was on Nick Foles all game long. But then Jordan did nothing against another pro style offense in USC, and Stanford showed us that getting after Nick Foles really isn't all that hard.
At the end of the day, you just have to wonder whether or not Jordan's rise is going to be too good to be true.
16. Ras-I-Dowling, CB, Virginia
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Projection: First round
Dowling's main attraction is his size, as he is bigger than his comrades at 6'2" and 200 pounds. And he's also been one of the best corners in the ACC over the last couple years.
But he doesn't come without red flags. The first is a nagging knee injury. The other is less-than-perfect footwork.
On balance, he might be better suited as a safety. But I'll be damned if that's for me to decide.
15. Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame
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Projection: Late first round, early second round
Floyd's stock has risen pretty steadily as he continues to have the best season of his career, and it wouldn't surprise anybody if he decided to forgo his senior year and take advantage of his situation.
He's similar in size to A.J. Green and Julio Jones, but is a hair slower than both of them.
There aren't many real reasons to doubt Floyd at this point, but I suppose I'm just wary of buying into the hype of any Notre Dame players.
14. Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina
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Projection: Mid-to-late first round
The general consensus on Carter seems to be that he's a physical freak with great speed, but that he is something of a project player.
There are some who also say that his instincts are lacking. In the NFL, that can make the difference between a three-yard gain and a 20-yard gain.
13. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame
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Projection: Second or third round
Rudolph may very well come back for his senior season at Notre Dame, but the consensus appears to be that it would be foolish of him not to try and capitalize on a very weak class of tight ends.
And that's the rub. There's going to be an NFL team out there that will take him because he is the best tight end available, instead of taking the best overall player available.
He's pretty quick for a tight end, but isn't much of a blocker. Could be a problem.
12. Cameron Hayward, DL, Ohio State
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Projection: Late first, early second round
Heyward is a big guy with the versatility to perhaps handle any system in the NFL, but he is lacking in several areas. For one, he lacks the speed and quickness of a very good defensive end. Second, he often focuses too much on the quarterback, despite the fact that his pass rushing skills are a work in progress.
Ultimately, Heyward has the look of a player who is really nothing more than a behemoth in pads. If he can't learn some technique, he could be nothing more than a fresh body when the starters need a rest.
11. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
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Projection: Early-to-mid first round
Robert Quinn is a physical beast at 6'5" and 270 pounds, but his 2010 suspension could end up being a bigger deal than most pundits seem to be willing to come to terms with.
I don't care how gifted you are, taking a year off from your given sport is going to have some kind of negative effect.
My biggest concern would be whether or not he's lost any quickness and/or explosiveness by the time the draft rolls around. A defensive end without those things isn't good for much else.
10. Jon Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh
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Projected: Late first round
Baldwin has incredible size for a wide receiver, as he stands at 6'5" and about 230 pounds, and he runs a 4.4 40-yard dash.
But you have to be concerned at the huge dropoff he's seen in his production in 2010, and he has done his work in a pretty weak conference.
9. Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State
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Projection: Late first round
Paea is definitely a big dude that can clog the middle well, a key ingredient to stopping the run.
But the amount of actual skills he has is very much in question, and he hasn't really been tested as much as one would like, given the lack of power rushing attacks in the Pac-10.
8. Rahim Moore, S, UCLA
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Projected: Late first round
Moore is generally considered to be the best safety prospect in the country at this point, which is mighty impressive given that he's still only a junior.
But while Moore's 10 interceptions led the nation in 2009, he has just one this year, and he has been forced to pick up a defensive unit that was decimated by graduation.
Because he's also spent time at cornerback, you have to wonder if there's an NFL team that would rather groom him for the position. Any time you start tinkering with a player like that, turning him into a bust is always a possibility.
7. Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
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Projection: Mid-to-late first round
While Von Miller is a very skilled linebacker and a great pass rusher, the knock on him is that he's really only any good in a 3-4 scheme.
So if a team with a 4-3 defense happens to draft him, the likelihood of him being a bust is practically assured. And even in a 3-4 defense, it would have to be the right system.
That's a lot of ifs.
6. DeMarco Murray, RB, Oklahoma
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Projection: Second round
The 2011 draft looks pretty weak at the running back position to begin with, and Murray is one of a couple players that will likely benefit from that.
Though Murray has done well in 2010 with the Oklahoma tailback gig all to himself, he hasn't come close to the explosiveness of his first two seasons, when he averaged over 5.5 yards per carry.
He's also had problems with nagging injuries, which is never good for a power running back like himself.
5. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
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Projection: First round
I'm putting Mark Ingram on this list even despite my understanding that it might not be a bad idea for him to come back for his senior season in order to rebuild his draft stock.
If he does indeed enter the NFL draft, then buyer beware. Ingram isn't much of a speed burner, and he's a little too small to be a power back in the NFL. Besides which, he isn't much of a between-the-tackles guy to begin with.
4. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska
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Projection: Early first round
Depending on who you ask, Amukamara is either the best or the second best cornerback prospect in the draft.
But in 2010, he hasn't come close to his 2009 production, where he had 54 tackles and five picks. Moreover, some have said that he lacks the quickness to make tough adjustments, which will kill him in the NFL.
Besides which, outside of Justin Blackmon, the Big 12 is more of a running conference. When Blackmon did face Nebraska earlier this year, he caught five passes for 157 yards.
3. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
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Projection: Mid first round
While there's little reason to doubt Fairley's skills and athleticism, I for one have doubts about his mental makeup after watching his performance against Georgia on Saturday.
Fairley took several cheap shots at Aaron Murray, the last of which knocked Murray out of the game after Fairley headbutted his knee with his helmet.
Guys like Fairley can get targeted in the NFL, by men who are just as big and mean as he is. That could end badly.
Cameron Newton, QB, Auburn
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Projection: Mid-to-late first round
Yup, another Auburn player.
When it comes to college football players, it seems amazing how many NFL GMs so easily ignore what is an essentially simple decree: beware the one-year wonder.
Indeed, it's looking more and more like the great Cam Newton is going to go pro, and ESPN's NFL Draft expert/tool Mel Kiper has him as high as the number 15 prospect.
Maybe this is just me, but he reminds me way too much of JaMarcus Russell, who also only had one really great year at LSU. And just look how he panned out.
1. Jake Locker, QB, Washington
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Projection: Early-to-mid first round pick
Before the season began, many football pundits penciled in Washington's Jake Locker as a Heisman contender and a possible number one overall pick.
Instead, Locker's 2010 season has been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. As a result, his draft stock has slipped pretty far.
He's still projected as a first round pick, as scouts still love his physical tools and intangibles. But now he is a project player, and a huge gamble.
And I'm calling the shot right now: he'll be a bust.
Can't Miss Star: Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford
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Projection: Number one overall
Drafting a quarterback with the number one overall pick is very risky, but that should not deter any team from taking Andrew Luck with the first overall pick.
Why?
Well, he's got a great arm, he's accurate, he makes good decisions with the football, and he plays in a pro-style offense.
In other words, he's not much of a project, and can help right away. With a little NFL grooming, he will be a star.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
