College Football Picks Week 11: Why Penn State Will Cover the Spread at Ohio St.
Joe Paterno is coming off another milestone, capturing his 400th win last week at home against Northwestern.
Matt McGloin, a former walk-on, came off the bench to lead the Penn State Nittany Lions on five consecutive scoring drives and negate the 21-point lead the Wildcats had built.
This week, McGloin will be starting for a confident Nittany Lions team that is looking to continue its run of success.
It will be no easy task in Columbus, where Penn State has beaten the Ohio State Buckeyes just once in their time in the Big Ten.
Now, I'm not saying that Penn State is bound to steal a victory on the road this week, but I do expect them to cover the 18 points that Ohio State is favored by.
Here are five reasons you should bet on Penn State to cover the spread this weekend.
Matt McGloin Starting the Game
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Since taking over for starter Rob Bolden during the Minnesota game, Matt McGloin has done nothing but impress the coaches and fans at Penn State.
He's completed 58.6 percent of his passes, throwing for seven touchdowns and only one interception. While the numbers are sparkling, and better than Bolden's, it's the intangible things that make McGloin the best option for this team.
The playbook seems to open up when McGloin is on the field and he shows uncommon confidence. He can throw a pretty good deep ball, as he's not afraid to air it out and let his tall receivers make a play.
That being said, he's a master of the short game. He sets up screens so well, fullback Joe Suhey had six big catches for 67 yards last week; that's as many catches as he had all season up to that point.
Simply put, McGloin is a better quarterback than Bolden and more suited to run this offense. Expect McGloin to limit his mistakes and take occasional shots down the field as the Lions keep this game closer than the experts think.
Penn State's Tall Receiving Corps
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Derek Moye, Penn State's leading receiver, has amassed 33 catches for 618 yards and four touchdowns this season as he has developed into McGloin's favorite target.
At 6'5", he's no easy cover for the smaller cornerbacks of the Big Ten. And he's not alone.
Brett Brackett, the Nittany Lions senior offensive captain, checks in a 6'6" and is the second-leading receiver on the team, with 28 catches for 385 yards and four touchdowns. He's got great hands and tremendous leaping ability. As a big receiver in the middle of the field, he has been a favorite target of both Bolden and McGloin.
Those two alone will be plenty for the Buckeyes to handle, as they easily will be two of the tallest receivers Ohio State has seen all year.
These upperclassmen are experienced and they won't be intimidated by playing in the Horseshoe in Columbus. Expect them to be a major reason the Lions cover the spread.
The Emergence of Silas Redd
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Silas Redd, the Nittany Lions freshman sensation, has finally gotten the chance to show why he was one of the top running back recruits coming out of high school last year.
Now that Evan Royster, the senior starting tailback, has attained the school's all-time rushing record, the coaching staff seems freer to give more carries to the explosive Redd.
While Royster has put up good numbers this season, he has been inconsistent and he has inexplicably seemed to have lost a step since his early days in Happy Valley.
Redd runs harder, makes better cuts and shows breathtaking speed. Last week in the comeback victory against Northwestern, Redd was a major contributor. He rushed for 131 yards on only 11 carries with one touchdown as he assumed the role of feature back late in the game.
In the past three seasons, the Nittany Lions are 25-2 when rushing for over 130 yards. If they want to do that, they'll need Redd on the field.
He's simply too good to let sit on the bench, and Joe Paterno knows that. As much as JoePa respects his upperclassmen, he knows that to keep the Ohio State game close, Redd needs 15 to 20 touches.
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Michael Mauti: The Next Great Linebacker
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Michael Mauti has emerged as a force for the NIttany Lions at linebacker after his performance last week. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Week had 11 tackles, three for loss, and a five-yard sack that helped seal the victory.
The defense has been decimated by injuries this year, and they have been looking for a leader to step up and become a playmaker. It seems they've found their playmaker in the highly recruited linebacker from Louisiana.
He has had to deal with a slew of injuries in his Penn State career, but now that he's on the field, he's showing why nearly every school in the country wanted him in their defensive backfield.
If Mauti can continue to play at a high level and lead the defense the way he did in the second half against Northwestern, look for the Nittany Lions to keep this game close.
Collin Wagner: Best Kicker in the Big Ten
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It may seem like a small part of the game, but special teams is as important as any aspect of the game. While Penn State's special teams hasn't been a bright spot overall, Collin Wagner has been nothing short of spectacular.
He's third in the country with 16 field goals made, and he's missed only four. Wagner has a huge leg, and he's made seven of eight from outside of 40 yards.
The Lou Groza Award finalist has been a major part of the success Penn State has had this season. The red zone offense has struggled, and Wagner has shown himself to be a reliable kicker when the first three downs are used up.
Penn State will be going up against the third-ranked defense in the country in Ohio State, and it will be important that they make the most of their field goal opportunities. If Wagner can make all his field goals, Penn State will keep the game close and maybe even pull out the victory.
Mike Osterberg is a student at Penn State University and a writing intern at BleacherReport.com. Follow him on twitter @Mike_Osterberg.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
